Poll Vault

[Wangler]

Palin: 75% approval rating among Alaska democrats

Thought that this would be the place to post this.

n=400, but Alaska is a small state.

 

[gdnp]

Thought that this would be the place to post this.

n=400, but Alaska is a small state.

When my governor eliminates the state income tax, the state sales tax, and sends each member of my family a check for $3269 I will give him a big thumbs up as well. Especially if he works with the congressional delegation to bring in earmarks at 10 times the national level. Santa Claus is really popular among children of all ages and religions.

Of course, it will be a bit hard for her to reproduce these results in the US as a whole, won't it?

 

[Pookster]

Still tied at Rasmussen (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Voters currently blame private corporations more than either Congress or the President for the Wall Street mess that became visible this week. That issue may have helped Obama gain ground in the past few days as few agree with McCain’s initial reaction that the economy is fundamentally sound. [LINK] However, the politics of the issue remain complex--49% of voters worry that the federal government will do too much while just 36% are more worried that it will do too little.

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen on the electoral college (same link as above) ...

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama has the edge in states with 193 votes. When “leaners” are included, shows Obama leading 259-247

 

[MattusMaximus]

Gallup tracking today: Obama +4% (48%-44%)

The Gallup numbers are still holding steady for Obama (48) vs. McCain (44)

 

[MattusMaximus]

I didn't think she was all that bad...I haven't seen too much analysis beyond the single "Bush doctrine" question.

Then you haven't been looking too hard.

Certainly her answer there was no worse than Biden's patriotic tax answer.

Attempt at deflection noted.

 

[Pookster]

It'd be nice if we could keep the discussion in this thread on topic - polls. There are plenty of other threads (or create new ones) to discuss other things.

Thanks.

 

[Pookster]

Gallup has Obama up by 5 today (49%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110533/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Now-Leads-McCain-Points.aspx

Obama enjoyed one of his widest advantages over McCain of recent weeks in Thursday night's interviewing. It will be important to see whether the stock market's reaction today to aggressive government intervention in the crisis has an impact of the direction of the presidential race over the next few days.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Edit: deleted (redundant--see Pookster's post above)

 

[David Wong]

Here's where the difference between Rasmussen's Likely Voters and Gallup's Registered Voters becomes very dramatic.

Basically Rasmussen is indicating that these people who fluctuate the polls and change their mind based on every convention or news story, aren't going to vote.

As support has flocked to Obama in Gallup, Rasmussen sits unmoved, saying that come election day it's still 50/50.

 

[Pookster]

Edit: deleted (redundant--see Pookster's post above)

I suspect the number could go up as high as 51% for Obama tomorrow.

I've grown more and more skeptical of Gallup's numbers though. They shouldn't swing this dramatically. But, the situation with the economy may be causing it this week. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep these kinds of numbers.

 

[Pookster]

Here's where the difference between Rasmussen's Likely Voters and Gallup's Registered Voters becomes very dramatic.

Basically Rasmussen is indicating that these people who fluctuate the polls and change their mind based on every convention or news story, aren't going to vote.

As support has flocked to Obama in Gallup, Rasmussen sits unmoved, saying that come election day it's still 50/50.

As I recall, Rasmussen was one of (if not) the most accurate polls in 2004. They pretty much nailed the outcome, and the numbers shifted very little over the time leading up to the election.

 

[aerosolben]

You mean despite all the hand-wringing from both sides, Obama is back to the small lead he's held roughly since the primaries wrapped up? Shocking.

I'm a supporter of "Obama +3" after GOP convention bounce.

 

[aerosolben]

FiveThirtyEight sure does lag; they show McCain still with a lead...methinks that they will show Obama back on top by this weekend.

He had a blog post recently mulling how they should adjust the sensitivity of their measures. Right now, they re-act slowly to avoid over-jumping minor trends, but that lags real momentum shifts. Tough to answer - personally I think, since the election season is so long, you're not going to be able to smooth out the race to any reasonable degree, so you might want to go for agility. Or just keep two measures.

 

[BenBurch]

538 no longer shows McCain leading, BTW.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Interesting poll profiling "Reds, Blues & Purples":

The online survey was conducted August 19–28, 2008, including 3,167 adults nationwide and carrying a margin of error of +/– 1.8 percentage points. Using statistical clustering analysis, we created a political typology based on how respondents evaluated 42 statements about political values. The typology revealed three significant clusters of respondents: "reds," as we decided to call them, make up 41% of the national sample, while "blues" comprise 34% and "purples" 24%. The same respondents were asked about their preferred leisure-time activities and their favorite radio and TV shows, Web sites, movies, games and sports.

Analysis here:
http://www.learcenter.org/html/projects/?cm=zogby/08

 

[Pookster]

Rasmussen has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Obama’s gains over the past week came as the focus shifted from the momentum generated at the Republican National Convention to the economic roller coaster ride that played out on Wall Street. Few agreed with McCain’s initial statement about the economy being fundamentally sound and neither candidate has yet convinced voters that he will bring the needed changes to the financial markets.

 

[not_so_new]

Important state that McCain is hoping to steal.

An average of the latest polls in Michigan shows why the state continues to be a battleground in the fight for the presidency.

A new CNN poll of polls in Michigan, compiled Saturday, suggests Senator Barack Obama has a five point lead over Senator John McCain, 47 percent to 42 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/20/cnn-poll-of-polls-obama-has-advantage-in-key-state/

11 percent still undecided? That seems high doesn't it?

 

[MattusMaximus]

It'd be nice if we could keep the discussion in this thread on topic - polls. There are plenty of other threads (or create new ones) to discuss other things.

Thanks.

Sorry. My bad.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Latest from the prediction markets...

IEM - WTA
Obama 63.5
McCain 38.4

IEM - Vote Share
Obama 53.5
McCain 48.1

Intrade (WTA or VS?)
Obama 51.4
McCain 47.2

NewsFutures (again, WTA or VS?)
Obama 53
McCain 47

Based upon the market over at IEM, which I tend to trust more due to their longevity and capacity for preventing people from gaming the market (they are the only market that I know which limits the trade price, thus preventing any single investor from dominating), it seems that McCain has got big problems.

For more context, compare the IEM record of the 2004 election to the current election.

Does anyone know if other markets have a similar historical analysis from 2004?