Merged 2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

[Segnosaur]

Any additional difficulty in voting for married women is likely to hurt the GOP more than the Democrats; in 2024 married white women voted Trump over Harris 56%-43%. Single white women went for Harris, 49%-47%.

I have seen the statistics showing married white women voting republican.

But, before we start pointing at them as a group and laughing because they could end up having a harder time voting for themselves, we need to look at how married women of ALL ethnic groups voted, not white women. (Unfortunately I have not yet found any statistics about that.)

 

[kookbreaker]

In a sign that Trump still owns MAGA, Dan Crenshaw has been primaried by a MAGA loyalist in TX-2.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

In a sign that Trump still owns MAGA, Dan Crenshaw has been primaried by a MAGA loyalist in TX-2.

Successfully primaried, no less.

In Texas's Democratic primary, James Talarico won an expensive race against Jasmine Crockett. He will face the winner of the even more expensive Republican primary between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas AG Ken Paxton, which is headed for a runoff. Although Cornyn got a few more votes than Paxton this time, I suspect Wesley Hunt's votes were largely anti-incumbent and will trend toward Paxton in the runoff.

Talarico is smart, understated, and holier than thou. Paxton is the opposite of Talarico, in all three respects. If Paxton ends up as the Republican candidate, the Democrats will have a golden opportunity to flip that Texas senate seat.

 

[Segnosaur]

In a sign that Trump still owns MAGA, Dan Crenshaw has been primaried by a MAGA loyalist in TX-2.

That is really quite amazing.

Crenshaw might not have been part of Trump's inner circle, but he was a pretty hard-core conservative... against abortion rights and obamacare. In favor of gun rights. And for the most part he has defended Stubby McBonespurs (voting against impeachment, supporting Trump's Covid response. The only significant opposition to Trump was over the Jan 6 terrorist attack, but even that seems pretty mild.) Plus, he was a veteran (something that used to matter to republicans).

Yet his solid conservative credentials, military record and his 99% support of Trump wasn't enough to save him from getting replaced.

According to Wiki, he won his district by ~20% in 2024 so it seems pretty solidly republican. However, the margin of victory in the 2018 midterms was only ~7%. So maybe there is a very slim chance that republicans could lose this district?

 

[Beelzebuddy]

In a sign that Trump still owns MAGA, Dan Crenshaw has been primaried by a MAGA loyalist in TX-2.

Challenger came from the right, he never saw it coming.

 

[Segnosaur]

In a sign that Trump still owns MAGA, Dan Crenshaw has been primaried by a MAGA loyalist in TX-2.

Challenger came from the right, he never saw it coming.

Supposedly Crenshaw had a PAC that spent over $2 million to support him in the primary. (His opponent, Steve Toth, had a PAC that spent less than $400k.)

So, he probably knew that there was a risk he could lose the primary.

See: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5763470-toth-defeats-crenshaw-texas-house-primary/

 

[ahhell]

Successfully primaried, no less.

In Texas's Democratic primary, James Talarico won an expensive race against Jasmine Crockett. He will face the winner of the even more expensive Republican primary between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas AG Ken Paxton, which is headed for a runoff. Although Cornyn got a few more votes than Paxton this time, I suspect Wesley Hunt's votes were largely anti-incumbent and will trend toward Paxton in the runoff.

Talarico is smart, understated, and holier than thou. Paxton is the opposite of Talarico, in all three respects. If Paxton ends up as the Republican candidate, the Democrats will have a golden opportunity to flip that Texas senate seat.

More than one of the folks I listen to, think Cronyn would win the general and Paxton would lose regardless of which Dem it is.

 

[azazal]

Challenger came from the right, he never saw it coming.

Too soon, to soon

 

[Brainster]

More than one of the folks I listen to, think Cronyn would win the general and Paxton would lose regardless of which Dem it is.

The RCP polling average has it at Cornyn +2, Paxton +1 against Talarico. Apparently Trump has already announced on Truth Social that he will be endorsing one of them and calling for the other to drop out. Still, polling within the margin of error is a good starting place for a Democrat in Texas. I do worry that Talarico might be the type of candidate that Democrats think will do well among Republicans, but still has the liberal positions that won't sell. There's a clip going around explaining why he feels that a passage in the New Testament supports the right to an abortion, and while it's an interesting argument, I had to wince at how he prefaced his remarks:

Now before we go any further, I want to acknowledge that our trans community needs abortion care, too... So when I use the word "woman" it should not be understood as a exhaustive term, but rather as a lens through which to understand, examine and interrogate partriachy.

That might be the least comprehensible definition of woman yet.

According to Axios, there was a big surge for the Democrats in heavily Hispanic counties along the border:

In Texas' 34th district, which Trump won 52%-48% in 2024, roughly twice as many voters participated in the Democratic primary compared to the Republican primary.

These are the types of areas that the GOP was relying on to give them the votes needed to gain a few seats in Congress. As I said at the time, the only way to get new seats is to risk old ones.

 

[3point14]

I still don't see what the Endgame is beyond dissolution of the Union.

In what I'm sure is entirely a coincidence, Vlad would love that.

 

[dudalb]

Challenger came from the right, he never saw it coming.

I suspect that Crenshaw did not take the opposition very seriously.
But this shows how insane it is getting in the GOP: having almost perfect COnservative credentials are no longer enough, you must have total obidence to Dear Leader.
But then we are talking about Texas......

 

[dudalb]

More than one of the folks I listen to, think Cronyn would win the general and Paxton would lose regardless of which Dem it is.

I agree; I think Talarico was the stronter condidate of the two, and I find some of the attacks on him form certain Progresives to be just plain stupid.
It's worthy of MAGA.

 

[ahhell]

I suspect that Crenshaw did not take the opposition very seriously.
But this shows how insane it is getting in the GOP: having almost perfect COnservative credentials are no longer enough, you must have total obidence to Dear Leader.
But then we are talking about Texas......

I don't think it's just Texas.

 

[Susheel]

I agree; I think Talarico was the stronter condidate of the two, and I find some of the attacks on him form certain Progresives to be just plain stupid.
It's worthy of MAGA.

Actually...no...it isn't. This attempt to equate a general dissatisfaction with a candidate with the madness that is MAGA is pretty shallow a reeks of the "both sides are same" apologia that usually comes from those whose faces are being eaten by leopards. Seems like in your so-called democratic milieu there should be lockstep obeisance to "the Party" whichever it is.

 

[dudalb]

Actually...no...it isn't. This attempt to equate a general dissatisfaction with a candidate with the madness that is MAGA is pretty shallow a reeks of the "both sides are same" apologia that usually comes from those whose faces are being eaten by leopards. Seems like in your so-called democratic milieu there should be lockstep obeisance to "the Party" whichever it is.

I see you are a member of the Left can Never do anything Stupid or Wrong club.
Getting control of congress is the only thing that matters, everything else is secondary. Talarico is a better candidate in the general then his opponent. WHat is so hard to understand about that?
And I see you are another member of the 'Moderates and Centirsts" are evil club.

 

[Susheel]

I see you are a member of the Left can Never do anything Stupid or Wrong club.
Getting control of congress is the only thing that matters, everything else is secondary. Talarico is a better candidate in the general then his opponent. WHat is so hard to understand about that?
And I see you are another member of the 'Moderates and Centirsts" are evil club.

Not what I said...and Dems aren't "the Left" by any standards.

 

[dudalb]

Not what I said...and Dems aren't "the Left" by any standards.

Dems are not monotholic .

 

[Susheel]

Dems are not monotholic .

No one said that either

 

[W.D.Clinger]

Dems are not monotholic .

​

Tholic the Rock is the patron god of all that resides underground - including metal and gems. As such, his following is particularly strong amongst dwarves and to a lesser extent gnomes....​

​

Tholician Law-Keepers are a sect of paladins, priests, and administrators who seek out the lawbreakers and serve as adjudicators for legal disputes....​

​

....The Tholician church has a strict hierarchical leadership structure, with roles being carefully allotted based on skill and deed.​

No one said that either

Looks to me as though @dudalb said that. I mostly agree with him. Some dems are law-keepers, but not all dems are monotholic. In particular, I don't think anyone can, with a straight face, accuse dems of having a strict hierarchical leadership structure.

 

[Susheel]

I don't think Dems are monolithic either. But dudalb seems to have an issue with labeling dems he does not like as leftist and hold them responsible for Trump. It's as if he prefers a Republican lite version of the Democrats.