The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Sideroxylon]

Maybe US could loan a couple of A10 for some runs on this “40-mile convoy.”

 

[acbytesla]

I am betting American A10 Warthog pilots sad they can't get in on the action.
That convoy is a perfect target for the Warthog,

Yeah, two squadrons of A10s could make a mess of it. Remember the highway to hell during the first gulf war.

 

[Sideroxylon]

Yeah, two squadrons of A10s could make a mess of it. Remember the highway to hell during the first gulf war.

My first thought on reading about it.

 

[Wildy]

I should have been more explicit: He doesn't need to invade Belarus because when Putin says "Jump", Alexander Lukashenko says "How high?"

I think what Putin can't stand is people bringing into question his cult of power, particularly if those people are leaders of former Soviet territories.

Tbh I don't think Lukashenko is that much of a lackey. He has his own designs and things might be planning out the way he wants them to. The Union State, for example, was an idea of his that was considered to be a way for him to become leader of a Russia-Belarus federation at Yeltsin's expense.

I've read a couple of times that Zelensky has asked for Ukraine to be admitted immediately into the EU. Is such a thing possible? And if so, what exactly would happen?

No. I don't believe Ukraine would have met the economic requirements before all this started. There's a ton of groundwork that needs to be done as well that I don't think is in place.

If it were possible I think the logic is that since a member state is being attacked, the other EU member states would be bound to provide more substantial defensive aid.

Yeah but then why did Russia wait to ask them to join?

They were worried they'd get a "no" like they did when they asked Kazakhstan?

Yes, so that's a silly idea. I explained some days ago already that natural gas and nuclear electricity have very little overlap in practical uses. Easily more than half the gas is used for heating, most of the rest in industry. Only 14% are used to generate electricity, where gas plants typically have the role of supplementing basic power plants (such as nuclear) with fast-reacting capability to turn up and down output to follow changing demand. Nuclear plants just cannot substitute gas plants in this, their most important, role.

Honestly, Germany should be considering battery storage for rapid changes in demand. It's been working surprisingly well here in Australia to the chagrin of the current government.

Belgium is historically part of the Netherlands. 60% of Belgium is the Dutch-speaking Flemish community. Belgium has no good reason to exist as a separate entity. I think the Netherlands should invade Belgium.

If that were the case in the name of peace Belgium should be partitioned between its neighbours, the Netherlands, Germany, Luxembourg and France in order to ensure the stability of Western Europe.

 

[Meadmaker]

Falklands, 2013. Voted 99.8% to be an Overseas Territory of the UK. The Crimean referendum is suspect, although there definitely were some Russian sympathies there.

I think you're right about Crimea, but not for the reason of no one voting that way.

That's what I get for stating something as an absolute. Somebody would know of some very special circumstances where it could happen.


All right. I won't quibble about it. The point is that there is no way in hell that 97% of the people of Crimea actually voted to become part of Russia, and that, in general, a 97% vote suggests that there is funny business going on. It takes a very special set of circumstances to get to that level of unanimity, and those special circumstances didn't exist in the Crimea.

 

[sphenisc]

Is Turkey in NATO?

Yes

 

[Frank Newgent]

https://twitter.com/borzou/status/1498393087952961541

Entertaining story about the guy linked in the thread.

 

[Pixel42]

And you're basically arguing that it's our fault that Putin is a total nutjob who acts irrationally and unpredictably.

It's the classic "look what you made me do" of the abusive husband whose wife won't instantly obey him.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination)

So we can look forward to free, open and fair elections in Russia, then?

 

[gnome]

A thought just occurred to me--is it possible that so far Russia's lack of going big on air power may be with a NATO/US response in mind? If Russia escalates in that direction, I could imagine western powers strongly pressured to begin a no-fly zone.

I'm wondering if Putin wants to avoid that contest. Not necessarily from some sudden interest in avoiding escalation, but because he thinks it won't go well for Russia.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Why would his own people go ahead and launch nukes on his say-so, if they're in a position where they want to oust and execute him? Even POTUS is liable to get a punch in the nose from the Marine holding the Football, if he suddenly decides to grab it and start pushing buttons in a fit of pique.

Because Putin has had 20 years to purge all aspects of the Russian military of anything but yes-men?
Who are all personally loyal to him?

I think you underestimate the loyalty dictators can engender. There was no logical reason to burn Germany to the ground following the failure of the Ardennes offensive, but the leadership from high to low did go along with Hitler anyway.

 

[Aridas]

Not (exactly) a day or two, three days before:


(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic)


(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)

The West imposed even more sanctions after Putin recognized the two republics (completely ineffective, but very useful to make people angry):

(https://www.voanews.com/a/us-europe...nizes-breakaway-ukraine-regions-/6453469.html)

Then Putin launched his big and tragically idiotic invasion of Ukraine after this new tranche of sanction (congratulations, West, your sanctions may have contributed to this invasion).

Honestly, as I read this, "Blame Canada" was playing in my head and I think that I'll pretty safely conclude that the quality of argument is not all that dissimilar.

I don't if this supposed to be Russian humor, but I don't find this very funny.

That you didn't understand the comparison is telling. It would be one thing to disagree, but not getting it in the first place...

Anyways, to poke elsewhere...


Pat Robertson: God Is Compelling Putin To Invade Ukraine
The master plan is to kick off the end-times and Pat claims Putin is being compelled to do so.

So in Pat's mind Trump was called by God to strengthen Putin, praise him, then weaken NATO as much as possible to make it easier for Putin to attack Israel.

...

Arizona senator says EU is building a new 'Third Reich' in its defense of Ukraine

*sigh*

Oh, and... Joyful Ukrainian woman welcomes Russian liberators makes for quite the picture.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think it is quite likely no one has been giving him honest intelligence about the capabilities of the Russian military or the resistance that might have been expected in the Ukraine. I though the same thing as you did but I'm guessing Putin has been shooting his messengers more than listening to them.

So much like Dump.

 

[Meadmaker]

A thought just occurred to me--is it possible that so far Russia's lack of going big on air power may be with a NATO/US response in mind? If Russia escalates in that direction, I could imagine western powers strongly pressured to begin a no-fly zone.

I'm wondering if Putin wants to avoid that contest. Not necessarily from some sudden interest in avoiding escalation, but because he thinks it won't go well for Russia.

I'm guessing they don't want to do too much civilian damage. I doubt that Putin cares, but it's bad PR.

There also just don't seem to be a lot of high value targets. The Ukranians don't seem to be setting up large armor battles, which is where you would see air power really making a difference. Airstrikes against squads of infantry might just give them a chance to use those fun new Stinger missiles they got.

However, even worse PR is actually getting bogged down and failing to win against Ukraine, so I think we'll see some ratcheting up of civilian damage real soon.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

My answer to that question yesterday.

Sorry, I'm seriously behind in this fast moving thread.

I don't have a better source. I'm not sure any source within Russia is going to be consistently valid. I'm not complaining that you posted it mind you.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I am prety much resigned that Kiev will fall. But I also think that you will see an insurgency that will make the Ukraine a living hell for Russia.
And I think the sanctons will stay in place until Russia pulls out of the Ukraine. The West is fully commited.

Or those anti-tank weapons and surface to air missiles could be in place soon enough to attack the long lines of whatever is rolling toward Kiev.

Putin could save face by withdrawing back to the 2 districts that the Russian separatists have been fighting for, annex that small bit and send the Russian forces home.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1498410764113256455

 

[erlando]

Russian forces are now targetting civilians with cluster munitions.

Russian forces have been shelling the outskirts of Kharkiv, an eastern Ukrainian city with 1.5 million people, since launching the invasion last week. But they appeared to be avoiding heavily populated areas.

On Monday, the fifth day of the Russian assault, that changed when Kharkiv was hit by a barrage of rockets.

Mr. Terekhov said four people had been killed when they emerged from bomb shelters to find water. And he said a family of five — two adults and three children — was burned alive when a shell hit their car. Another 37 people were wounded.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/0...-latest-news-from-russias-invasion-of-ukraine

 

[Brainster]

Arizona senator says EU is building a new 'Third Reich' in its defense of Ukraine

Didn't read the Kos take but the woman quoted is a knucklehead, so probably fair game. That said, all in favor of German rearmament who live in continental Europe raise your hands!

There are lots of negative outcomes of the Russian invasion and some of them involve what might at first seem other countries' positive reactions.

 

[The Don]

Maybe US could loan a couple of A10 for some runs on this “40-mile convoy.”

Regarding this convoy, to someone not well versed in military tactics, this would seem like a dumb thing to do, to have a large, slow moving, very visible, target like this which got me wondering about why it's happening.

• It's incompetence, a well organised military would never allow this to happen but the Russians in Ukraine aren't well organised
• It's a flex, the Russians know it's not a great idea but they're demonstrating how much they're in control by doing this apparently ill-advised thing - taunting the Ukrainians that they're powerless to do anything about it
• It's a trap, they're luring the Ukrainians out to attack the convoy with their planes/drones/armour/infantry and will then crush them with overwhelming force - this is why they've been holding back their elite/competent units until now
• It's a lure, they want NATO forces to be actively involved so the Russians can claim to be the innocent victims of Western aggression. This is a tempting target to lure NATO planes/drones into attacking

IMO it's a flex combined with incompetence.