The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[theprestige]

It's amazing how many major military operations fail because one side is shocked, simply shocked I say, that the other side had the other side decided to fight back.

Seriously has the whole "Hit them hard and fast, break their spirit, then they'll just give up and not fight back" ever really worked? And as said Russia only got the "hit them hard and fast" part about halfway right anyway.

The Tet Offensive.

 

[Arcade22]

I'm pretty skeptical about a lot of the good news I'm hearing from Ukraine. Killing thousands while losing a couple of hundred against an enemy that's better equipped just doesn't seem realistic.

Even if they are getting as hard as they are giving those losses are far more acceptable to the Ukrainians than the Russians. This is not a popular war for Russia, but it is for Ukraine.

And i'm not surprised if the Russians have lost many thousands of soldiers. By all accounts their offensive was unprepared to face any serious resistance which quite clearly the Ukrainians were delivering.

 

[dasmiller]

"Why Russia will lose this war"

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

It's a very long read but well worth it.

Thanks for that link. He makes some compelling points, assuming his facts are accurate (and I have no reason to doubt his facts, but "I read it on somebody's Twitter account" isn't definitive)

 

[Andy_Ross]

Of course I'd rather they didn't participate, but I'm not that worried about Belarus joining the fight. They're like a crappy version of Russia, which is pretty damn crappy. But of course, numbers matter too.

Jumping in to see what they can grab before it’s all over like the Italians attack on France in WW2.

 

[theprestige]

It seems like to me that a serious clash between peer mechanized infantry units is going to result in large casualties on both sides. Or large casualties on one side, if the other side gains an early edge and keeps that momentum going.

ETA: If the Russians are feeding infantry battalions into Ukrainian rolling defenses, hoping to bull through the serial ambushes with their vaunted numerical superiority, I could see casualties mounting up pretty quick for them, at relatively low cost to the Ukrainians.

Too, I won't be surprised if a lot of the early Russian casualties are in units that were only ever full strength on paper, and now their commanders are exploiting the fog of war to correct their records without getting in trouble for misreporting their strength. At least those crematoria won't need to use real fuel to burn fake bodies.

 

[timhau]

Jumping in to see what they can grab before it’s all over like the Italians attack on France in WW2.

Here's to hoping that what they'll grab is a Ukrainian boot, with their ass.

Of course, what they're really doing is Putin's bidding through his little Belarusian poodle.

 

[theprestige]

It'll be tragicomic if the Belarussian forces make a better Blitzkrieg showing than the Russians.

 

[Oystein]

Lukashenko is an incredibly nasty character - makes the notorious Kray Twins look like Pinky and Perky - a journalist has recently been jailed for 'insulting' him and who remembers Roman Protasevich being diverted off a Ryanair plane, together with his girlfriend and sentenced to eleven years IIRC and with the appearance of having been tortured when forced to confess his supposed crimes on state tv.

BBC News June 2021

Lushenko is a very dangerous man.

I saw this today in Cologne:
https://www.24rhein.de/bilder/2022/...chtfest-des-koelner-rosenmontagszugs-1Zfe.jpg

That's float made to be presented at the Carnival procession traditionally planned for today.
Because of corona and the war, no carnival, but instead there was march for peace along almost the same route today (>150,000 participants, me being one of them), and this float, along with some others, one featuring Putin, were on display at various locations in the center of the city.

 

[Arcade22]

Are the invading Russian troops that much better equipped?

The Ukrainian citizens getting AKs handed out to them aren't taking out armor or tanks, but I get the impression that the Ukrainian regular armed forces are pretty well equipped with anti-armor weapons.

The Russians are not that much better equipped, at least in regards to quality of their equipment. Combine this with typical poor quality of Russian engineering and maintenance their advantage is not overwhelming. The Russians are nowhere near the US or UK, for example.

The fact that they have been unable to completely shut down Ukrainian air defenses means that they are unable to freely utilize their most important advantage: their air-planes and helicopters.

 

[dasmiller]

Jumping in to see what they can grab before it’s all over like the Italians attack on France in WW2.

Actually, it reminds me of the Soviet invasion of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands in late WWII.

Hopefully this time it won't work out for Russia & Friend

 

[eerok]

I've read a couple of times that Zelensky has asked for Ukraine to be admitted immediately into the EU. Is such a thing possible? And if so, what exactly would happen?

 

[Andy_Ross]

The German invasion of France in WWII?

Not quite, it caught everyone by surprise, even the Germans to an extent.

 

[crescent]

No idea, but as I said, people vastly underestimate how much of the tech world gets outsourced workers from Ukraine. I don't know Musk personally, so have no idea if his intentions are pure or not, but he does have a major interest that Ukraine gets back to normal and stays Putin free.

The bitcoin and other virtual currency markets are really in an uproar about this. Apparently Ukraine is a major e-currency mining hub.

By now, I'm sure everyone's seen that shocking footage of a Russian armoured vehicle deliberately driving over a car driven by an elderly civilian.

But I'm confused. The location where it occurred is close to the centre of Kyiv; far closer than we have been told Russian forces had penetrated. It occurred here, less than 10km from the city centre (face south on Heroiv Dnipra St).

According to the Daily Mail (sorry), the armoured vehicle was a Ukrainian one (hence its lack of the painted Z), stolen by Russian saboteurs, along with a truck, that was stopped by Ukrainian soldiers.

Does this show a war crime? An apparently unarmed perhaps wounded soldier is lying beside the truck. Arms seem to be above his head. The soldier by the white van comes forward and shoots him.

It does show a war crime - Russian soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms using Ukrainian vehicles with Ukrainian livery. We can show you footage of Nazis in American uniforms during the battle of the bulge, using American jeeps marked up as being in the American military. They were executed too.

Iodine has been sold out for days in Norway.

Look at the package you bought your salt in. Good chance it is iodized. That might be enough to keep a body from retaining radioactive iodine in the event of a nuclear exchange.

It really, really sucks that we need to dust off all the old cold war era advice about what to do in the event of a nuclear exchange.

 

[Meadmaker]

Even if they are getting as hard as they are giving those losses are far more acceptable to the Ukrainians than the Russians. This is not a popular war for Russia, but it is for Ukraine.

And i'm not surprised if the Russians have lost many thousands of soldiers. By all accounts their offensive was unprepared to face any serious resistance which quite clearly the Ukrainians were delivering.

I would believe the Russian losses could be in the thousands.

I don't believe that they have lost thousands, while only killing a couple of hundred.

 

[Darat]

I've read a couple of times that Zelensky has asked for Ukraine to be admitted immediately into the EU. Is such a thing possible? And if so, what exactly would happen?

Anything is possible - the EU can pass new legislation to make it possible - but I doubt there is the political will to make it happen.

 

[eerok]

Anything is possible - the EU can pass new legislation to make it possible - but I doubt there is the political will to make it happen.

I'd love to see Putin crushed is all. I guess I won't get my hopes up.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I would believe the Russian losses could be in the thousands.

I don't believe that they have lost thousands, while only killing a couple of hundred.

why not? the Ukrainians seem to be far better trained, they aren’t staying to slug it out hand to hand, they are using drones and missiles, ambushing an advance then retreating to new positions. I can believe the Russian casualties are far higher. If you look at Russian tactics in WW2 in the same area and their Cold War doctrine high casualties were part of the plan.

 

[BillC]

Graphic images coming out of Kharkiv. Russia has launched a fresh offensive with the view of finally taking the city. Footage of MLRS/artillery strikes on residential areas, many casualties.

 

[dasmiller]

I'd love to see Putin crushed is all. I guess I won't get my hopes up.

There's always the question of who would replace him.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Graphic images coming out of Kharkiv. Russia has launched a fresh offensive with the view of finally taking the city. Footage of MLRS/artillery strikes on residential areas, many casualties.

I assumed a more "total war" approach would be the Russian response to a failure to "shock and awe" Ukraine into total capitulation.

It's not like the invading Russians have been particularly careful to avoid civilian targets already, but I imagine indiscriminate civilian killings will only become worse the longer fighting persists.