The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Manopolus]

I am curious about the difference between providing military equipment to the Ukraine and "providing military equipment". It feels like there would be some loopholes when it comes to engaging Russian forces within the Ukraine by other countries.

Of course, Russia would ultimately get to decide whether to escalate based on such actions, so it isn't so much about the legal definition and more about diplomacy and negotiation, oddly enough.

Ukraine did announce the formation of a "foreign legion" and apparently foreigners are joining it (there was a segment on one of the news outlets... dunno which one), specifically Brits. Good enough. Maybe even too much.

I think getting other countries (particularly NATO) involved directly would be incredibly dangerous, however. Could pretty much wipe out humanity in a worst case scenario. It's not that it wouldn't be right. The problem is that it wouldn't be safe for anybody on the face of the planet. Might even be safer to orchestrate a full-scale invasion of Siberia from Alaska by the US while Russia's military is elsewhere (but yeah... that wouldn't be safe, and they'd surely see us coming).

 

[dudalb]

Even if it was 40 miles long, which is just...ridiculous, it's currently not moving and being shot to bits. Russia REALLY suck at war.

I am betting American A10 Warthog pilots sad they can't get in on the action.
That convoy is a perfect target for the Warthog,

 

[Mike!]

I am betting American A10 Warthog pilots sad they can't get in on the action.
That convoy is a perfect target for the Warthog,

That's the exact thought I had too.

 

[Michel H]

Go take a long walk on a short pier.

Is this better than Russia?

 

[pzkpfw]

The Russians do not have full air superiority yet, apparently, but they must be pretty confident to have that X-mile long convoy on the road.

(Or be very foolhardy.)

 

[Olmstead]

I do like the idea of Russia becoming so frustrated by how badly they've been doing that they assemble most of their military capacity and send it on a straight line towards Kyiv, only for the entire convoy to get blown to bits in simple chokepoints.

I'm doubtful, but I can hope.

 

[theprestige]

I am betting American A10 Warthog pilots sad they can't get in on the action.
That convoy is a perfect target for the Warthog,

The convoy is a perfect target for anything. My question is, is anything actually targeting it? (And does it even actually exist?)

 

[Manopolus]

Yeah... France 24 just said the convoy stretched 60 miles. However, it's anybody's guess how closely packed any given segment of said convoy is to each other. The image shows them basically tailgating each other, but that isn't necessarily continuous. I doubt it could possibly be that close over that great of a distance.

Furthermore, even if they do have that big of a force, that would be idiotic, indeed.

 

[Doubt]

The Russians are working at surrounding Kyiv. If the very long convoy is not attacked from the air then they likely have some sort of local air superiority but seemingly cannot cover the whole country.

Attacking the convoy from the ground in ambushes would be nice. But the best place for that is in towns and cities. Seems the Russians have secured those routes. But they don't control the whole countryside.

The best policy here is to keep pushing back as the Russians advance on the city. Since the Russians don't control the whole countryside, there is an opportunity for small groups of Ukrainians to start massing further out from the Russian troops. When the Russians push inward the Ukrainians outside hit from the back. If there is enough strength, the troops inside the city push outward where they can.

What this would look like is an urban version of the battle of Alesia. Except the Russians are not as good as the Romans and they don't have Julius Caesar in command.

The hitch here is can the Ukrainians move like that to come in behind the Russians? It will have to be done at night and very carefully.

 

[Stacyhs]

So the convoy was first reported as 3 miles long, then ______________ (fill in the blank) miles long. What is it? Made out of elastic?

 

[Olmstead]

An interesting article and video on what methods CNN uses to verify social media footage from Ukraine:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28/politics/ukraine-social-media-verification/index.html

 

[lobosrul5]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

1) The sections under separatist control, ok I could see that.
2) yeah ok
3) **** that. That's nonsense. Ukraine should be in NATO asap. Or this just happens again.
4) sure, with the condition of no Russian military units within 100km of Ukraine and that includes Ukraine.

 

[theprestige]

So the convoy was first reported as 3 miles long, then ______________ (fill in the blank) miles long. What is it? Made out of elastic?

Think of it like a tape measure unspooling from inside the housing. As the lead elements get closer and closer to Kiev, the distance from them back to their jumping-off point increases. First they're only three miles away, then seventeen, then forty, etc. If batches of vehicles keep departing from the same supply depots and mustering points and following the same route as the lead elements, the convoy will get longer and longer as it progresses towards Kiev.

 

[pzkpfw]

So the convoy was first reported as 3 miles long, then ______________ (fill in the blank) miles long. What is it? Made out of elastic?

My Father did his military service in the Dutch army. A mechanic in a hospital unit.

He described convoy driving as like being in a concertina.

One moment you are crawling, stuck behind another vehicle, the next you are racing to catch up to the vehicle in front. Sounds elastic.

 

[lobosrul5]

Probably it would make more sense for the US to start extracting its own LNG for domestic consumption, and let Germany import the fuel that the US is currently importing. Maybe even help them to finance the importation of fuel.

Lng isn't extracted. It's just natural gas. It's frozen to become a liquid for transportation. We were already set to be the world's largest exporter in 2022 before the Ukraine invasion

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-be-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-2022-2021-12-21/

 

[Wudang]

I think you must have misunderstood my question.

Clearly misread it. Apologies.

 

[kookbreaker]

It seems to me there are some easy concessions Ukraine and its Western allies could easily make, and which would perhaps avoid further bloodshed and suffering:

(1) Accepting the independence of the two breakaway republics of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk). Russia could station troops there if deemed necessary for protection, upon invitation from their respective goverments.

(2) Accepting that Crimea is part of Russia.

(3) Accepting that Ukraine will not be a NATO member for at least 10 years.

(4) Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Russia (even those which existed before this recent attack by Russia) provided that all Russian troops have left Ukraine (where they shouldn't be). With the understanding that a lifting of sanctions would also be good for Western economies and ordinary citizens.

Why not give them the Sudetenland while you are at it?

 

[Manopolus]

My Father did his military service in the Dutch army. A mechanic in a hospital unit.

He described convoy driving as like being in a concertina.

One moment you are crawling, stuck behind another vehicle, the next you are racing to catch up to the vehicle in front. Sounds elastic.

Yeah, basically a "road march" with vehicles. For those that don't know the term, a "road march" is basically just military personnel (usually a training exercise) walking down either side of a road at a forced (fairly fast) pace. You usually get stuck behind the guy with the shortest legs that can't keep pace without running... so you end up in a walk/run slinky action.

Brings back the memories... kind of humorous in retrospect. I had legs quite long enough to keep up, but I wasn't exactly allowed to pass the short and/or out-of-shape people ahead of me slinky-ing the pace. It was an interesting form of torture to be stuck in that for up to 20 miles or so.

With vehicles, it's more a matter of slowing down for other reasons... corners, etc. You still get that weird effect where the pace has a slinky effect. It isn't just a changing pace. The distances between are also affected with delayed reactions, etc.

 

[dudalb]

Warners just pulled..two days before it was to open "The Batman" from Russian release.

 

[dudalb]

I am prety much resigned that Kiev will fall. But I also think that you will see an insurgency that will make the Ukraine a living hell for Russia.
And I think the sanctons will stay in place until Russia pulls out of the Ukraine. The West is fully commited.