The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[theprestige]

It turns out that the way I know Ukraine is winning is that r/publicfreakout is full of phone videos showing Ukrainians fighting the good fight, and completely lacking in phone videos taken by Russian troops kicking Ukrainian ass.

 

[Arcade22]

I read several tweets from military analysts who are shocked at how poorly Russia is performing.

The amphibious assault near Mariupol apparently failed. It was done at night, Russia apparently has no known history of training to do that at night. Their military is not as well equipped with night vision gear as NATO troops usually are. They have night vision gear, but not as much.

The failed airborne attacks on airports were also mentioned, lacking sufficient air cover, too far in advance of the ground troops to be able to hold out for them.

Troops running out of food already. Three days worth of food for a tank crew is vastly less bulky than three days worth of fuel for the tank. It's baffling that tanks and trucks and all that didn't have more food squirreled away.


Politically, India is still waffling. They (like China) abstained from the U.N. vote. They didn't vote against it. I get the impression that Modi is taking heat on that now. If India comes out against this, that's a big hit against Russia's political position.

I'm shocked too. I was expecting the Russians to be doing a lot better but they are just not. No wonder Putin is seething and stewing in anger, telling the Ukranian military to surrender.

 

[sackett]

Expecting Donnie to do something useful for someone? If he's that crazy, the world is in deep doodoo.

Why, Mr. Putler is the only person who's ever made Donnie do anything. Of course he expects the old magic to work again.

Consider: Trumpf engineered a failed coup, and yet he's still running free. In the Putinverse, that can only mean that he has sources of unused power, brute power, muscle and weaponry. Surely Trumph will see an opportunity now to regain his empire by helping out an admired friend.

Being grossly mistaken about a world that Russians have never understood doesn't make Vladdie crazy.

Of course, in the case of Great Leaders the difference between stupid and nuts is often unclear.

 

[dudalb]

There are claims that the 3500 number was first put out by TASS - Russian govvie news organization. Then withdrawn. Given the imagery of convoys destroyed, failed airborne attacks on airports, failed amphibious assault on Mariupol, I find the number plausible.

That said, Russia is still advancing and gaining ground, and I expect Ukrainian casualties might be just as high, if not higher. There were some crazy big rocket barrages in the east, some huge airstrikes there (near Kharkiv) in the beginning of all this.

Its still to early to call this a failure, or anywhere close to that. Russia is having a harder time than anticipated, but it is still only day three. For reference, it took the U.S. six weeks to recapture Falluja in Iraq, four weeks to recapture Hue after the Tet offensive.

It's really just a question of how many casualties Russia can tolerate - and they have a history of tolerating insane casualties among their own troops.

OHm Russia will probably overwhelm the conventonal forces with sheer numbers.
But then begins stage 2...the Insurgency. It will make Afghansitan look like a minor skirmish.
But is is afailure in that Putin was expecting a easy win. That might explain the shorrages that Russian troops are suffering.
Not to mention that Russia is going to into Pariah status with most of the world and will stay that way for along time...probably until Putin is gone.

 

[dudalb]

Why, Mr. Putler is the only person who's ever made Donnie do anything. Of course he expects the old magic to work again.

Consider: Trumpf engineered a failed coup, and yet he's still running free. In the Putinverse, that can only mean that he has sources of unused power, brute power, muscle and weaponry. Surely Trumph will see an opportunity now to regain his empire by helping out an admired friend.

Being grossly mistaken about a world that Russians have never understood doesn't make Vladdie crazy.

Of course, in the case of Great Leaders the difference between stupid and nuts is often unclear.

But..but...Trump kept Russia from invading because Putin was afraid of him....current GOP line.

 

[theprestige]

Its still to early to call this a failure, or anywhere close to that. Russia is having a harder time than anticipated, but it is still only day three. For reference, it took the U.S. six weeks to recapture Falluja in Iraq, four weeks to recapture Hue after the Tet offensive.

Counterpoint: The US lacked the political will to decisively occupy and secure Fallujah. The US did not lack the equipment, morale, and logistics to decisively occupy and secure Fallujah.

I don't know much about the details of the Tet Offensive and the retaking of Hue, but my understanding is that Tet was an all-out shock offensive with no reserves held back for follow-through, and it completely back-footed the US and Vietnamese forces. And the biggest casualty on the US side was still the political will to keep fighting.

It seems the Ukranians are not lacking in political will to keep fighting. And it seems that they're getting equipment and supplies to fight with. The longer this goes on, the more it becomes a battle between the Russian military-industrial complex and the arsenal of democracy.

 

[jimbob]

Counterpoint: The US lacked the political will to decisively occupy and secure Fallujah. The US did not lack the equipment, morale, and logistics to decisively occupy and secure Fallujah.

I don't know much about the details of the Tet Offensive and the retaking of Hue, but my understanding is that Tet was an all-out shock offensive with no reserves held back for follow-through, and it completely back-footed the US and Vietnamese forces. And the biggest casualty on the US side was still the political will to keep fighting.

It seems the Ukranians are not lacking in political will to keep fighting. And it seems that they're getting equipment and supplies to fight with. The longer this goes on, the more it becomes a battle between the Russian military-industrial complex and the arsenal of democracy.

And the more Putin's personal aura degrades.

ETA: which makes him vulnerable - all strongmen are only in power as long as they can convince people that they're strong

 

[Lplus]

And the more Putin's personal aura degrades.

ETA: which makes him vulnerable - all strongmen are only in power as long as they can convince people that they're strong

I wonder how far it can degrade before he seriously considers the use of a Nuke or 2 in Ukraine just to show who's boss.

 

[timhau]

I wonder how far it can degrade before he seriously considers the use of a Nuke or 2 in Ukraine just to show who's boss.

Hard to say what goes on in his bloated little head, but would that help? I'm sure invading Ukraine was supposed to be a show of strength, which it hasn't been. By any sane standards, dropping a nuke isn't either.

 

[dudalb]

Germany will send weapons to the Ukraine.
This is pretty significent, since Germany has always been considered "soft" on Russia. Maybe they have decided you just can't trust Putin.

 

[Oystein]

As already posted there are special forces and light units infiltrating.

I expected exactly what is happening.

Sure thing.
I totally expected the lottery numbers of last weekend.

I am surprised Putin attacked with such a small force, there aren't enough enough to replace the troops at the front, they are already there.

Just heard a military analyst here on TV: Russia so far has deployed only a third of the troops they amassed at the borders in recent weeks.

 

[timhau]

Just heard a military analyst here on TV: Russia so far has deployed only a third of the troops they amassed at the borders in recent weeks.

Have the rest sobered up yet?

 

[Oystein]

They haven't prepared very well then have they?

After 3 days the power and communications haven't even been taken down.

It's not even been three days.
You pretend to know exactly that the plan was to take down power and communications in 3 days.
This obviously is not the plan.

I am 100% convinced you did NOT expect he'd sent troops into (yes, troops. Yes, into. You may wish to obfuscate this fact as much as you wish, you won't make it go away) Kyiv on day 2.

So you think a proper plan is to take out power and communications, so that then you can move troops in safely and successfully? Well, this is obviously NOT the plan.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I read several tweets from military analysts who are shocked at how poorly Russia is performing.

The amphibious assault near Mariupol apparently failed. It was done at night, Russia apparently has no known history of training to do that at night. Their military is not as well equipped with night vision gear as NATO troops usually are. They have night vision gear, but not as much.

The failed airborne attacks on airports were also mentioned, lacking sufficient air cover, too far in advance of the ground troops to be able to hold out for them.

Troops running out of food already. Three days worth of food for a tank crew is vastly less bulky than three days worth of fuel for the tank. It's baffling that tanks and trucks and all that didn't have more food squirreled away.


Politically, India is still waffling. They (like China) abstained from the U.N. vote. They didn't vote against it. I get the impression that Modi is taking heat on that now. If India comes out against this, that's a big hit against Russia's political position.

They weren't prepared for a near peer opponent. Ukraine had the same structure, doctrine and equipment as Russia

 

[Aridas]

Timothy Snyder put up a post with links to various NGOs to send money to those who look after soldiers on the battlefield or refugees.

I am negotiating with my wife to let me send money.

As I see it, while the Ukrainians are willing to fight, it is our duty to support. Those who undermine it are effectively pro-Putin and can all **** off.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/a-few-ways-to-help-ukrainians?utm_source=url

I'd add to that a little. For those who are a bit wary of donating directly to military causes or to specifically Ukrainian-based organizations, given the direct threat that Russia's posing to them, there are also international organizations like the Red Cross that are trying to provide humanitarian aid.

So, please correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the Russians initially take and then lose TWO airfields in and around Kiev? I presume that if they attemped to take them and then lost them, that would easily count as two objectives which they failed to accomplish.

To poke at that subject... Looks like the Russians may currently hold at least one? Two waves of attack on the Antonov Airport, the first which was counterattacked successfully and the second, which seems to have successfully taken it over, at least for now.

But at Antietam, on Sep 17,1862 3300 Americans died .

There's also the point that the fighting is happening on many fronts and that Russian morale doesn't seem to be all that high overall. On the other hand, if that 3500 number was initially provided by Russia, of course, there are plenty of reasons for it not to be accurate. Including, I think, the potential for simple coverups of Afghanistan-like corruption, where soldiers existed on paper, but had been dismissed in reality so that corrupt officials could take their pay for themselves.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

And the more Putin's personal aura degrades.

ETA: which makes him vulnerable - all strongmen are only in power as long as they can convince people that they're strong

A counterpoint to that is if Putin fails Boris & crew will have something else to constantly refer to other than "the vaccine rollout". And they will be keen to do so, because it would be a disaster for the Conservatives if the British public's consciousness was raised about the amount of Russian money laundering they allow to take place in and through that jewel of the British economy, the City of London.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Several videos of captured Russian soldiers, some seemed bewildered and claimed they were told, and thought it was an exercise. Some are clearly young conscripts.

Is it possible they are saying things to get better treatment?

 

[Oystein]

Modern metro areas are sprawling affairs. Kiev encompasses over 800 square kilometers. 30km away from the city center counts as "outskirts" in my book. Especially if light infantry and special forces are even closer.

Souther California wildfires 30km from downtown San Diego would be serious cause of for concern among the residents of that metro area. Thousands of whom would already have been evacuated as the fires approached their homes.

Kyiv city contains 85% of the population of its metro area, with a population density of 3,300/km^2.
San Diego city has only half the density, and then indeed a sprawling metro area with the same population as the city.
The main difference in a US city is suburbs: where there are miles and miles of low-density lands with single-family homes on individual plots, many in Kyev live in multi-story apartment complexes.

Take the airport, Boryspil: It's under 30 km from the center of the city, and more than half of the drive into tow, you go through fields, forests and small towns. I have been there three times.

A tank battalion 30km away from the city center, on a highway running straight into downtown, could be shelling your downtown apartment block later today. That's a little too close for my comfort. Maybe for you, 30km makes the war safely "over there, somewhere". For me, it would be "about to blow up in my face". If I haven't already made my fight or flight decision, I'm doing it wrong.

That would have been "Maybe for Captain Swoop".

 

[theprestige]

It's not even been three days.
You pretend to know exactly that the plan was to take down power and communications in 3 days.

I pretend to know that it should have been the plan, and that if it wasn't the plan someone screwed up their planning big time. And if it was the plan, someone screwed up their implementation big time.

This obviously is not the plan.

Every appearance of Russia failing is obviously just them actually succeeding at whatever their actual goals are? None of it can be just Russia failing at something?

I am 100% convinced you did NOT expect he'd sent troops into (yes, troops. Yes, into. You may wish to obfuscate this fact as much as you wish, you won't make it go away) Kyiv on day 2.

Honestly I wasn't expecting him to go so hard for Kiev so soon in the first place. I also wasn't expecting him to drop light infantry and special forces into Kiev without being up to the task of promptly reinforcing them and securing the territory they were fighting for.

But then, I wouldn't have expected the Battle of Mogadishu to play out the way it did. Yet here we are.

So you think a proper plan is to take out power and communications, so that then you can move troops in safely and successfully? Well, this is obviously NOT the plan.

It should be the plan. If it's not the plan, then someone screwed up their planning.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Quite. If your plan doesn't involve the as-soon-as-possible elimination of power and communications, you suck at war.