The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Andy_Ross]

I think if there is one and only one lesson we all learned in recent days it's that Russia has prepared for all of this for a long time - and nobody else has.

They haven't prepared very well then have they?

After 3 days the power and communications haven't even been taken down.

 

[grunion]

They really are disgusting, aren't they!

And by "they", I mean Heather Heying, her maggot-brained husband Bret Weinstein, Jordan Peterson, Ben Shapiro, Tucker Carlson, the dweebs from Triggernometry, Lawrence Fox, Sargon of Akkad, and a bunch of other morons who are blaming it all on "woke".

Father Coughlin would be proud to see how his journalistic tradition has flowered.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I think that during the invasion of Iraq, if Iraqi Su-27s were still in the air and supporting Iraqi ground troops against American ground troops on the third day, it would have been considered a disaster.

Power and communications still working after three days would also be seen as a disaster.

 

[Andy_Ross]

If this keeps up, PUtin may order machine guns set up behind attacking Russian Ttoopd "to encourage them" a la Stalin in World War 2. The opening of the film on Stalingrad " Enemy On the Gates " is dead on accurate.
A greatmany of the military experts are saying Putin does not want to risk his good units in combat except as a last resort.

Enemy At The Gates is crap
Most of it is mythology and fiction.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I'm not a military expert. However, I expected far better coordination from the invasion force than what's been reported so far. I've also been impressed with the intense fighting spirit displayed by the Ukrainians.

I expected nothing better from the Russians. It is about par for the course

 

[Andy_Ross]

It seems strange that there's been a curfew declared, when that seems like the best time to do a bit of guerrilla warfare.

IANA Military Strategist.

When the curfew is in place anyone on the street can be taken to be the enemy. It simplifies things

 

[The Don]

If this keeps up, PUtin may order machine guns set up behind attacking Russian Ttoopd "to encourage them" a la Stalin in World War 2. The opening of the film on Stalingrad " Enemy On the Gates " is dead on accurate.
A greatmany of the military experts are saying Putin does not want to risk his good units in combat except as a last resort.

If the good units are, in effect, his own Praetorian Guard then I can see him holding them back in case things go badly wrong.

 

[theprestige]

Sounds like the Ukrainian claims to be fighting and killing Russian forces in the outskirts of Kyiv aren't exactly true then. Or perhaps the forces 30 km away are there to replace the troops at the front with fresh units and resupply? So they can go longer than 100 hours?

You evaded the question of sourcing the "expectation" before the event. An expectation is no good if it first appears after the fact.

Modern metro areas are sprawling affairs. Kiev encompasses over 800 square kilometers. 30km away from the city center counts as "outskirts" in my book. Especially if light infantry and special forces are even closer.

Souther California wildfires 30km from downtown San Diego would be serious cause of for concern among the residents of that metro area. Thousands of whom would already have been evacuated as the fires approached their homes.

A tank battalion 30km away from the city center, on a highway running straight into downtown, could be shelling your downtown apartment block later today. That's a little too close for my comfort. Maybe for you, 30km makes the war safely "over there, somewhere". For me, it would be "about to blow up in my face". If I haven't already made my fight or flight decision, I'm doing it wrong.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Putin says "Banderites and neo-Nazis are putting up heavy weapons, including MLRS, right in the central districts of large cities, including Kiev and Kharkov. In effect, they are acting in the same way that terrorists act all over the world using people as shields"

Seems like he's preparing the ground for shelling civilian targets.

 

[dudalb]

Putin says "Banderites and neo-Nazis are putting up heavy weapons, including MLRS, right in the central districts of large cities, including Kiev and Kharkov. In effect, they are acting in the same way that terrorists act all over the world using people as shields"

Seems like he's preparing the ground for shelling civilian targets.

Of course.

 

[timhau]

How many of the Russian planes are actually airworthy and have qualified pilots is another factor.

This. I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of them were missing parts because they had been sold for drinking money.

 

[Andy_Ross]

China just announced that it respects the sovereignty of Ukraine, after having announced hours ago that it told Putin to negotiate a truce. This is going downhill for Putin fast, China knows it, and doesn’t want to go down with him.

 

[crescent]

They say a Ukrainian Su-27 shot down the Russian transport plane.

A second transport plane was also shot down, but it doesn't say by what.

It also says the Ukrainian Su-27s supported the ground forces in beating back the Russians.

Where is the Russian air force? Why wasn't the transport plane escorted? Why are Ukrainian fighter jets allowed to be in the air?

We saw the same at Antonov airport north of Kiev. Transport planes and helicopters, but unescorted by fighter jets.

Why don't the Russians have air superiority?

A month or two ago I read a thing about how the West might try to help Ukraine prepare for a war. One of the suggestions was to help Ukraine disperse and hide its air force. It was assumed that the Russian air force might first go in and focus on destroying that air force, then switch to ground support. So send the Ukrainian air force into hiding during that first phase and only bring it out when there are lots of slow and low ground support aircraft to hit. That might be what they did. Can't clear the enemy aircraft out of the sky if they don't take to the sky and you can't figure out where they're hidden on the ground.

I don't think the Iraqi air force had Su-27s in the first place. It seems Iraq's air superiority fighters consisted of 32 MIG-25s, about 30 MIG-29s, and some lesser aircraft that wouldn't have had any chance at all against US fighter aircraft.

Both Ukraine and Russia still rely on Su-27s and variants, so there is no great mismatch between the basic quality of their air superiority fighters. The mismatch is quantity, not quality. Ukraine is said to have 20 to 30 Su-27s, while Russia is said to have more than 500 Su-27s, Su-30s, Su-34s, and Su-35s.

Ukraine is also still making good use of Mig-29s. I guess it is considered to be an outdated design, but they've claimed a number of kills with it.

I was thinking that a good, quickly deployable military support to give them right now would be Su-27, 25, and Mig-29s that are in service with the eastern NATO countries like Poland and Romania. The Ukrainian pilots are already checked out on the type and would just need a quick learner on whatever upgrades the NATO planes got that the Ukrainian ones didn't.

Then replace the aircraft in NATO inventory with equivalent American or European 4th gen fighters (F-18, F-16, and Eurofighter(?). Takes time to train up the NATO crews on those, but they're not at war. They have the time.

As for casualties. Ukraine shot down two transports that were participating in a airborne drop. Those can hold more than 125 paratroopers each. That alone would get you close to 10% of the total that Ukraine has claimed to have killed. There's no guarantee they were full, they might have only had a partial contingent or might have been dropping equipment rather than people.

 

[Babbylonian]

This. I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of them were missing parts because they had been sold for drinking money.

That's assuming money made it that far in the first place. Putin and his thugs have been stealing everything they possibly can. It's unlikely they've made any sincere attempt to improve their military in the last 20 years. The goal has clearly been to spend just enough to be able to terrorize their neighbors when such was deemed necessary.

Putin no doubt expected to be able to decapitate Ukraine with the troops he sent. Not knowing **** about how armies worked, he didn't realize that you don't send armies to kill small groups of people. That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

 

[carlosy]

China just announced that it respects the sovereignty of Ukraine, after having announced hours ago that it told Putin to negotiate a truce. This is going downhill for Putin fast, China knows it, and doesn’t want to go down with him.

Source ?

 

[Beelzebuddy]

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497590205074845698
The only words I understand there are "Ruski" and "blyat," but it doesn't sound like Ukraine has a morale problem right now.

This. I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of them were missing parts because they had been sold for drinking money.

The first day had a large Russian transport plane go down, that was eventually geolocated to outside Ukrainian AA space and ruled an equipment failure.

Also, here's a resource documenting equipment loss on both sides.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

[crescent]

I read several tweets from military analysts who are shocked at how poorly Russia is performing.

The amphibious assault near Mariupol apparently failed. It was done at night, Russia apparently has no known history of training to do that at night. Their military is not as well equipped with night vision gear as NATO troops usually are. They have night vision gear, but not as much.

The failed airborne attacks on airports were also mentioned, lacking sufficient air cover, too far in advance of the ground troops to be able to hold out for them.

Troops running out of food already. Three days worth of food for a tank crew is vastly less bulky than three days worth of fuel for the tank. It's baffling that tanks and trucks and all that didn't have more food squirreled away.


Politically, India is still waffling. They (like China) abstained from the U.N. vote. They didn't vote against it. I get the impression that Modi is taking heat on that now. If India comes out against this, that's a big hit against Russia's political position.

 

[The Don]

The BBC is saying that the leader of Chechnya has sent "troops" to support Russia. If you want to ensure massacres and human rights abuses, that's the way to do it.

As usual projection about drug-addled neo-Nazis from the man who is putting them in the field.

 

[angrysoba]

China just announced that it respects the sovereignty of Ukraine, after having announced hours ago that it told Putin to negotiate a truce. This is going downhill for Putin fast, China knows it, and doesn’t want to go down with him.

Source ?

Would be nice if true. If they really wanted to make things go downhill fast, they could have voted to sanction Putin at the UNSC.

Speaking of which, another maggot-brain Glenn Greenwald decided to point out that Bolsanaro's Brazil voted with the "western consensus" to condemn Russia, unlike India, UAE and China who abstained.

Who knows whether Greenwald was trying to show the west were bad for Bolsonaro voting against Russia or whether he was trying to big up Bolsonaro, but that is quite clearly a "thing" he is doing. Greenwald has frothed and melted down over this, but I don't think he has once said he opposes Putin's invasion.

 

[shemp]

Putin says "Banderites and neo-Nazis are putting up heavy weapons, including MLRS, right in the central districts of large cities, including Kiev and Kharkov. In effect, they are acting in the same way that terrorists act all over the world using people as shields"

Seems like he's preparing the ground for shelling civilian targets.

A blast from the past! Aided by the Hiwi, Ustaše, and Forest Brothers no doubt!