The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[llwyd]

We can observe, we can analyze, we can perhaps compare - but we should also do a little skeptic thinking before we post. In war, being skeptic is essential.

Well, obviously towards pro-Ukranian sources, but I will follow your lead and take Russian sources and interpretations as gospel

 

[Beelzebuddy]

Most interesting take I've seen so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497454034709585925?cxt=HHwWioC55degg8gpAAAA

tw;dr Russian forces are screwing up more than expected due to a lack of coordination; everyone's trying to get in and do "their thing" even when it's irrationally risky.

Folks, you are ALL not military experts

I'll have you know I was an armchair epidemiologist last week, I can be an armchair Soviet general this week.

 

[Oystein]

...your lead and take Russian sources and interpretations as gospel

Surely you have evidence that I take Russian sources and interpretations as gospel.
For the only possible alternative to believing everything out of Ukrainian sources and making up stuff is taking Russian sources and interpretations as gospel, right? A True Dilemma if ever there was one


llwyd, it would have looked good on you if you had done a little skeptic thinking before you posted. Thanks for illustrating the urgent validity of my post

 

[angrysoba]

You have reports about the quality of Russian coordination and Ukrainian fighting spirit from ... whom? And you vetted them ... how?
And thinking back, when did you form that expectation, and how did you formulate it in terms that would enable you to compare your expected level of coordination with the observed level of coordination, given that you are "not a military expert"?


Folks, you are ALL not military experts - none of you have planned an invasion lately, and certainly not with the specific situation as basic data that the Ukraine-Russia conflict presents.
NONE of you knows what the Russians planned for or expected.

ALL the news you are so happy and quick to re-post here are dubious and in need of vetting.

We can observe, we can analyze, we can perhaps compare - but we should also do a little skeptic thinking before we post. In war, being skeptic is essential.

I am pretty sure that I have been qualifying everything I have been saying here in suitable terms. I do not know what is going on, I have no idea, I am not a military expert, etc...

I only know that the leadership in Ukraine, and many civilians and soldiers are continuing the fight rather than running away.

That DOES seem to be true.

I KNOW that much of what is posted turns out to be false, misinformation etc...

So you do not need to make sweeping claims like this when you yourself have made claims that appear unsupported by the same standards you claim to hold others to.

Unfortunately there is loads of misinformation.
I am seeing a lot of stuff on social media of how garbage the Russian equipment is and how easily the Russian invasion is being smashed, captured and killed.

Obviously I hope all of it is true and Putin swings from a lamp-post.

In fact, if all of it is false but believed and Putin swings from a lamp-post then I would also be happy, so I guess just keep pushing that propaganda!

I have no idea. I really know nothing about military affairs. I have opinions, of course.

I do know that many of the reports that come out turn out to be different from how they are originally reported though. Sometimes the complete opposite.
It does seem strange if Russia has not got air superiority yet.

I am beginning to dare to believe that the Russian military is indeed a moth-eaten piece of crap.

This is wonderful!

As I may have said, this completely puts the lie to Putin's claim that Ukraine is not a real country or it is topped by a bunch of kleptokrats.

The Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their country, and people like Zelensky and Klitschko, who people may have expected to run away, have stayed to fight!
Now, I feel like going to the Russian consulate in Osaka and screaming at them.

What is "childish posturing"? Staying in a city under bombardment by one of the reputed superpowers of the world? Calling on the world to send ammunition instead of an escape route for himself?

Seriously?!?

This guy truly puts Western politicians (the vast majority of them at any rate) to utter shame.
They also put posturing libertarians to shame as well.

So, please correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the Russians initially take and then lose TWO airfields in and around Kiev? I presume that if they attemped to take them and then lost them, that would easily count as two objectives which they failed to accomplish.

The question is did the Russians? If they did, then failing to achieve that aim would mean they failed in their objectives.

I have no idea.
I am only going with the assumption that if an attack was thwarted, or the ground taken was reclaimed, it presumably counts as failure of an objective.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

SKEPTICS

SKEPTICS

skeptic thinking

skeptic thinking

 

[dudalb]

Putin now saying he has slowed down military operations to allow for negotations, Sure, Vlad, Sure.

 

[Oystein]

I am pretty sure that I have been qualifying everything I have been saying here in suitable terms. I do not know what is going on, I have no idea, I am not a military expert, etc...

I didn't mean to target specifically you. And if I had been asked to point out individuals, you would not have been among them.

I only know that the leadership in Ukraine, and many civilians and soldiers are continuing the fight rather than running away.

That DOES seem to be true.

Yes, and that's one thing I did not expect a couple of days ago (nor did I expect they would not - I just had no idea that Kyiv itself would already be under attack)

I KNOW that much of what is posted turns out to be false, misinformation etc...

So you do not need to make sweeping claims like this when you yourself have made claims that appear unsupported by the same standards you claim to hold others to.

My posts are meant as reminders to everyone -- including even myself.

It's okay to try judgement and form opinions.
It's not okay to make (or insinuate) claims of fact.
it's okay to have expectations.
It is not okay to talk about expectations no one actually expressed before the fact. At most, one could have an informed opinion on what sort of things are expectable.

 

[Mike!]

I think we can all safely assume, from the recent deranged rantings from Putin himself, that things are not going as he'd hoped they would.

 

[sphenisc]

I’ve found it noteworthy and commendable that the Ukrainian government is handing out AK47’s and other armament to civilians, trained or untrained in their use. And instructing civilians on how to make Molotov cocktails.

Streetfighting in Kiev could be a nightmare for Russian troops if they start receiving fire from multiple high rises and firefights on nearly every street corner.

Guerilla fighting can bog down the Russian troops and inflict huge casualties, albeit on both sides. Even if the Russians prevail in the near term, partisans continuing to fight and sabotage their troops and supply lines could make the occupation extremely costly, in both blood and treasure. We’ll see if the Russian populace has the stomach for it, especially after their experiences in Afghanistan.

It seems strange that there's been a curfew declared, when that seems like the best time to do a bit of guerrilla warfare.

IANA Military Strategist.

 

[Tero]

I would say, yes, they probably expected to take Kiev very quickly. It's not going to plan.
I

I think Putin did. If he did not think he could, he would have reduced his plan to taking the "republics" he created. That would have given him a permanent presence to keep Nato out.

 

[W.D.Clinger]

Why don't the Russians have air superiority?

No way would it have been possible for outdated fighter jets to take part on the enemy side.

I think that during the invasion of Iraq, if Iraqi Su-27s were still in the air and supporting Iraqi ground troops against American ground troops on the third day, it would have been considered a disaster.

I don't think the Iraqi air force had Su-27s in the first place. It seems Iraq's air superiority fighters consisted of 32 MIG-25s, about 30 MIG-29s, and some lesser aircraft that wouldn't have had any chance at all against US fighter aircraft.

Both Ukraine and Russia still rely on Su-27s and variants, so there is no great mismatch between the basic quality of their air superiority fighters. The mismatch is quantity, not quality. Ukraine is said to have 20 to 30 Su-27s, while Russia is said to have more than 500 Su-27s, Su-30s, Su-34s, and Su-35s.

 

[Meadmaker]

"I need ammunition, not a ride."

I don't know if he is a hero or a fool. It is extremely common to be both. Regardless, I really admire that guy.

 

[carlitos]

Big galaxy-brain take from the dregs of the Intellectual Dark Web.

 

[Ryokan]

I don't think the Iraqi air force had Su-27s in the first place.

No. I used that as the example because that's what the Ukrainians have in the air.

 

[The Don]

I don't think the Iraqi air force had Su-27s in the first place. It seems Iraq's air superiority fighters consisted of 32 MIG-25s, about 30 MIG-29s, and some lesser aircraft that wouldn't have had any chance at all against US fighter aircraft.

Both Ukraine and Russia still rely on Su-27s and variants, so there is no great mismatch between the basic quality of their air superiority fighters. The mismatch is quantity, not quality. Ukraine is said to have 20 to 30 Su-27s, while Russia is said to have more than 500 Su-27s, Su-30s, Su-34s, and Su-35s.

How many of the Russian planes are actually airworthy and have qualified pilots is another factor.

 

[Ryokan]

The former president of Ukraine is not any less tough than the current one, patrolling the streets of Kiev with a gun in his hand.

I know. Probably posturing.

 

[The Don]

The former president of Ukraine is not any less tough than the current one, patrolling the streets of Kiev with a gun in his hand.

I know. Probably posturing.

Probably, but Boris Johnson has been known to hide in a fridge in much less challenging circumstances.

 

[theprestige]

It seems strange that there's been a curfew declared, when that seems like the best time to do a bit of guerrilla warfare.

IANA Military Strategist.

I've seen reports of attempts by Russian special forces trying to infiltrate in Ukrainian uniforms. Curfew establishes a basic IFF protocol, and tells you which side any "guerrillas" are on.

 

[angrysoba]

Big galaxy-brain take from the dregs of the Intellectual Dark Web.

[qimg]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMf-bZ4VUAMYtJr?format=jpg&name=small[/qimg]

They really are disgusting, aren't they!

And by "they", I mean Heather Heying, her maggot-brained husband Bret Weinstein, Jordan Peterson, Ben Shapiro, Tucker Carlson, the dweebs from Triggernometry, Lawrence Fox, Sargon of Akkad, and a bunch of other morons who are blaming it all on "woke".

 

[Andy_Ross]

Sounds like the Ukrainian claims to be fighting and killing Russian forces in the outskirts of Kyiv aren't exactly true then. Or perhaps the forces 30 km away are there to replace the troops at the front with fresh units and resupply? So they can go longer than 100 hours?

You evaded the question of sourcing the "expectation" before the event. An expectation is no good if it first appears after the fact.

As already posted there are special forces and light units infiltrating.

I expected exactly what is happening. I am surprised Putin attacked with such a small force, there aren't enough enough to replace the troops at the front, they are already there.