• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

2020 Presidential Election part 2

Status
Not open for further replies.
<snip>

I don't believe however, that any state legislatures are going to go along with Trump's fantasy that they can throw out the state's votes and elect Trump delegates to the EC. It would be political suicide, something I don't think has been considered by the fear mongerers.


That last sentence, the one you highlighted?

That's lost a lot of its punch over the past four years.

Political suicide would be something Trump's supporters and sycophants would draw the line at. It has been made eminently clear that for them no such line could ever exist.

They have established that they have no sense of honor or patriotism. No sense of history or how they will be seen by it. No glimmer of integrity.

And as long as their support is there, and especially as long as the covey of Trump partners-in-crime control the Senate, they have no reason to change. They know their actions will have no personal consequences for them. They have had years of proof of that.
 
PHP:
Trump in mentally ill; incapable of accepting defeat. But that no prominent Republican is speaking up in to denounce his actions or, worse, is backing his lunacy is unspeakable. The enable him. All I can hope is that they know he is going down and that they will deal with him appropriately afterward, but from their past failures to ever rein him in, I somehow doubt it. They're disgusting.

I’m sure they’re sitting right and letting him posture. Nobody can overturn the vote.
 
I watched Trump’s entire press briefing. Words fail. He is literally losing his mind. We need a stronger word than embarrassing.

And that was him following a carefully-prepared script.
 
Has any Fox commentator or Republican politician commented on how many vote counters seem to be African American?
 
Hey foreign types.

Context. How long does it take for you guys to get results after major but routine elections?

The polls close at 23.00. UK and Scottish Parliamentary Elections, we will know over night. The first results come in by 23.30. I have seen it being confidently called as early as 0300 with the Tony Blair landslide.

The last results are NI because they do not count over night and wait till the next morning. Even with a recount, it is rare not to know a result by mid day the next day.
 
Ted Cruz is repeating Trump's lie that ballot counting observers are being denied access in Philadelphia thus cheating Trump out of the election. FOX is pretty much backing Trump by giving him and his sycophants a stage to spew their nonsense without fact checking.

They're also claiming that the 'blue wave' polls were deliberately misreported by the media in an effort to discourage Republicans and increase donations to Democrats to help Biden.
 
Ted Cruz is repeating Trump's lie that ballot counting observers are being denied access in Philadelphia thus cheating Trump out of the election. FOX is pretty much backing Trump by giving him and his sycophants a stage to spew their nonsense without fact checking.

They're also claiming that the 'blue wave' polls were deliberately misreported by the media in an effort to discourage Republicans and increase donations to Democrats to help Biden.

I don't get that last one. Wouldn't they be encouraged to go vote due to the threat of a blue wave? (Which is kind of what seems to have happened.)
 
Last edited:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1324544991096688642

REAL BREAKING NEWS: FBI is investigating claims that Trump operatives requested ballots for deceased people in swing states and then released the verifiable details of those votes in order to delegitimize the election results. #TrumpMeltdown #TrumpIsLosing

I have no idea how reliable that source is, and can't see it reported elsewhere, but it's worth posting.
 
Kevin Sorbo tweeted

@ksorbs
I never see people driving around with Biden flags, someone want to explain how this guy who couldn’t fill a high school auditorium is leading currently?

It was the same with the Scottish Independence referendum. The Yes side was far more visible than the No side, but the No side won.

I think it was because one side could be aggressively vocal about their support and there was a genuine fear to show support for the other side.

From what I have seen of Trump supporters, there is a lot of aggression and desire to dominate.
 
Man the progressives are almost as butthurt as the Trumpers over the idea that Biden might win.

What they should be mad about is that America appears to be much more moderate than they thought it was. It is nearly certain that Trump will lose, Republicans will keep the Senate and the Dems will have losses in the House. That's hardly an endorsement for the agenda of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
 
As of the 4:16 AM Update--here's the margin of #Georgia Votes. Right now, Biden is up 917 votes. #Gapol #Election2020 #ElectionResults2020 #11Alive More on@11AliveNews with @ChristieOnTV pic.twitter.com/IvzUjIYgEC

/happydance
 
As of now, NYT still has Trump up by 463 votes, but the only counties with a significant percentage of ballots uncounted are Taylor (+27 Trump, 3821 total votes, 4% uncounted) and Clayton (+71 Biden, 108413 total votes, 2% uncounted).

How are overseas and military ballots handled? If these are included in the current number, Biden is on his way of taking Georgia.
 
It was the same with the Scottish Independence referendum. The Yes side was far more visible than the No side, but the No side won.

I think it was because one side could be aggressively vocal about their support and there was a genuine fear to show support for the other side.

From what I have seen of Trump supporters, there is a lot of aggression and desire to dominate.

That.
 
I haven't posted here since the JREF days (which I guess means I haven't posted!), but FWIW I ran some calculations using data from the Australian ABC site to calculate votes required to win the states at various percentages. The data was fairly coarse (no decimals in % of votes counted), so this is very rough and also possibly out of date for Georgia.

Anyway, data dump begins:

Nevada

Biden needs 51.3% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%
Trump needs 61.2% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%

Biden needs 48.2% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%
Trump needs 58.0% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%

Biden needs 46.6% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%
Trump needs 56.5% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%

Arizona

Biden needs 46.4% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%
Trump needs 73.6% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%

Biden needs 41.4% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%
Trump needs 68.6% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%

Biden needs 38.9% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%
Trump needs 66.1% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%

Pennsylvania

Biden needs 92.1% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%
Trump needs 74.5% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%

Biden needs 75.5% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%
Trump needs 57.9% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%

Biden needs 67.1% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%
Trump needs 49.5% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%

North Carolina

Biden needs 88.7% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%
Trump needs 44.6% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%

Biden needs 80.4% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%
Trump needs 36.3% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%

Biden needs 76.2% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%
Trump needs 32.1% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%

Georgia

Biden needs 150.9% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%
Trump needs 149.1% of the remaining vote to win by 1.00%

Biden needs 100.9% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%
Trump needs 99.1% of the remaining vote to win by 0.50%

Biden needs 75.9% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%
Trump needs 74.1% of the remaining vote to win by 0.25%

-----

So yeah, Georgia will be a recount and I can't understand why NC hasn't been called (at least not on Australian ABC).
 
Last edited:
FWIW, they talked about recounts on the Daily Beans podcast yesterday. Apparently, if a result is less close than 0.25% then the person requesting the recount has to pay for it, and that adds up to about $3m.

So they were opining that any races where the count was further apart than 0.25% would be ones where Trump makes noise about a recount, but doesn't actually ask for one - because they'd essentially be paying money that they don't have in order to get basically the same result. Makes more sense to whinge about how unfair it is and how much fraud there was.
 
The polls close at 23.00. UK and Scottish Parliamentary Elections, we will know over night. The first results come in by 23.30. I have seen it being confidently called as early as 0300 with the Tony Blair landslide.

The last results are NI because they do not count over night and wait till the next morning. Even with a recount, it is rare not to know a result by mid day the next day.

To elaborate a little on the UK elections method.

All eligible voters must register at their home address and have their names put on the electoral roll. If your name isn't down you don't get to vote and registration must be done well in advance.

All registered voters are sent a polling card which speeds up the process at the polling station but isn't necessary. Each registered voter then goes to the polling station and is given a ballot paper. You write an X in the box of your preferred candidate and fold and put it into the ballot box.

There are LOTS of polling stations manned by volunteers and there is rarely any wait time to cast a vote. they are open 7am till 10pm on election day.

There is also a postal voting method where you can mail a ballot in if you are unable to vote in person on the day. You apply several weeks in advance for a postal ballot for any reason.
These are mailed out to voters 3 weeks before the election. You have until 10pm on polling day to return it via the post. If it's later than that it does not get counted.

Returned postal ballots and on the day ballot boxes are kept sealed until after the polls have closed and are taken to counting locations. Usually by local councils.

Once the polls are closed the boxes are opened and counting begins. There are registered observers from each party that are able to observe the counting process to make sure it is all above board.

How long the counting takes depends on how many votes have been cast, and how many people there are counting.

All of the votes are counted by hand.

In the last election in 2019 a total of ~32million votes were cast.

First results are usually known an hour or so after polls close, all of the counts are usually complete by 6amish the following morning.

UK parliament has 650 seats in the House of Commons. Each constituency in the country votes for an MP in one seat. Whichever party gets a majority forms a government and wins the election. Whoever the party leader is becomes Prime Minister. It's a FPTP system (sadly) so as soon as one party gets the necessary number of seats the election is called by the TV networks.

We don't have "decision desks" a seat is only decided one way or another once all the votes have been counted and verified.

The count in the UK is much quicker than the US because we use simple paper ballots. You just put an X or a n other mark in the box of your preferred choice and put it in the box. If you make any identifying mark, or mark more than 1 X your vote is invalid and not counted.

There are no voting machines or counting machines. All the votes are counted by hand.

If a count is very close and a recount is required then all the votes are counted by hand again. A result in that seat will not be declared until the recount is complete. Recounts do take longer and in some cases a result will not be declared until lunchtimeish the following day, but I don't ever remember it taking longer than that.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom