2020 Presidential Election

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I don't know if it's been posted before but, according to this site, registered Democrats account for 49.1% of early votes so far.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I don't know if it's been posted before but, according to this site, registered Democrats account for 49.1% of early votes so far.

If I'm reading it correctly.

Registered Democrats (overall counting both in-person early voting and mail-in ballots) are as of this post outvoting Registered Republicans 49.1% to 27.9%. So while a very few statistically insignificant number of registered voters are voting for the other party's candidates, that suggests a very strong early push for Biden.

But in-person voting (with the caveat that fewer states break down the data this way, so there could be different sampling errors) slightly favors Republicans, who are voting in person at 40.2 versus the Democrat's 37.2 percent.

So the question is are people voting early, earlier and what kind of turnout are we gonna see closer to and on election day.

Both numbers however don't account for the ~22% of voting so far being done by unregistered voters, which is a large enough number to still tip the election safely either way.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

A quick Google search shows the Bangor Daily News announcing the visit at 8 am this morning, 6 1/2 hours before his plane landed.

But Trump told her how great his rally was.

 

[SezMe]

You could move to Wyoming.

Or better, Hawaii.

Or just turn the boob-tube off.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Trump Tweets

Biden dumped New Hampshire in the Dem Primaries, left early. I had my first big victory there - Do it again!
Quote Tweet

Ronna McDaniel
@GOPChairwoman
Our supporters in NEW HAMPSHIRE are ready to turn the state red for @realDonaldTrump!
13,263 signups
44.8% NOT Republican
20.4% did not vote in 2016
Thank you, Manchester!!

Biden's ahead by 10 points according to 538.

NYT: Democrats could expect 295,000 to 300,000 voters to turn out in New Hampshire based on the Primary.

Across the aisle, more than 150,000 voters — 151,602, to be precise — turned out for the Republican primary even though its outcome was never in doubt. That is extremely high for a noncompetitive primary. By comparison, about 54,000 people voted in the New Hampshire Democratic primary in 2012, and about 57,000 voted in the Republican primary in 2004.

Something tells me an extra 13K votes isn't going to be all that significant.

 

[kookbreaker]

From what you posted here, there are mostly losses.

There's a few others that they won. I think they delayed the sending of the mail-in ballots. Then there were delays from the printer (which is not a court case). And they are likely to win their appeal about the vote counting time when they get their sycophant toady on the Supreme Court.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Mark Meadows, per the local news today, is claiming we can't control the pandemic because it's a contagious virus.

Instead we will use vaccines and drugs.

Meanwhile on the campaign trail Trump is still claiming we are rounding the corner and really there aren't more cases, just more testing. And he claims "we have a vaccine" even though it's still at least a couple months away and longer before there is vaccine available for everyone.

That's a recipe to lose the election, IMO.

 

[Meadmaker]

Yes, one of the big problems with the US is that they actually have too much democracy, and they insist on doing it all on the same day.

In Canada, The Federal Election is just that - Federal, and nothing but. One vote, for your local MP, that represents the party you support.

Provincial and city or municipality level elections aren't held on the same day, and usually, not even in the same year, as the Federal elections. Plus, we don't have this bizarre notion that things like dogcatchers and medical examiners should be elected positions. We hire professionals for stuff like that.

The first time I voted in Michigan, I was surprised to see a race on the ballot for "Oakland County Drain Commissioner".

 

[BillC]

The Economist has dropped its probability of a Tump victory from 9% to 5%. This, it should be said, is somewhat different to FiveThirtyEight, which gives Trump a chances of about 12%.

 

[The Atheist]

The Economist has dropped its probability of a Tump victory from 9% to 5%. This, it should be said, is somewhat different to FiveThirtyEight, which gives Trump a chances of about 12%.

I note 538 is showing an improvement for Donald in the past couple of days.

I don't see anything to worry about, but it begs the question of what level of insanity you'd need to have to have been convinced to vote for him in the past couple of weeks. Maybe some of the lies stuck, after all.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I don't see anything to worry about, but it begs the question of what level of insanity you'd need to have to have been convinced to vote for him in the past couple of weeks. Maybe some of the lies stuck, after all.

The whole Biden Laptop thing is probably affecting the margins a little as hard as they are pushing it.

But again that kind of minor 1 or 2% wobble (especially with that potential tie still popping in and out of 538's protective model) doesn't really concern me that much.

 

[newyorkguy]

My wife and I voted early today in New York, the northwest Bronx. There was a long line of people waiting even before the location opened. We were among them and it took us about two-and-one-half hours to complete our voting.

In 2016 trump got about 20% of the vote in the Bronx. This time around I don't see him doing as well. Judging by comments I heard on line, people are exhausted with him. And scared about what could happen over the next four years if this whackjob holds on to the White House. People are desperate to remove him.

My wife and I are among them.

 

[The Atheist]

In 2016 trump got about 20% of the vote in the Bronx.

That's one of the great shames of US politics - that so many of the saner people are in the same areas, leaving the rural states to the extras from Deliverance.

 

[bonzombiekitty]

This is exhausting.

This is why I avoid watching actual TV or listening to anything other than WHYY on the radio during election season. Though the Youtube ads are kinda annoying. At least the door to door people generally don't bother me because it's not really worth their effort here. But yesterday I had two people knock on my door, one tried to give me another door hanger (my 5th one in the past 3 days).

 

[acbytesla]

This is why I avoid watching actual TV or listening to anything other than WHYY on the radio during election season. Though the Youtube ads are kinda annoying. At least the door to door people generally don't bother me because it's not really worth their effort here. But yesterday I had two people knock on my door, one tried to give me another door hanger (my 5th one in the past 3 days).

I wired up a hose to a motion detector. It's amazing the effect that cold water has on them this time of year.

 

[bonzombiekitty]

I note 538 is showing an improvement for Donald in the past couple of days.

The teeny-tiny improvement for Trump was because some of the oddly extra-good polls for Biden got too old and fell out of the model.

 

[bonzombiekitty]

I wired up a hose to a motion detector. It's amazing the effect that cold water has on them this time of year.

Can't do that here. I live in the city, there's my front door 4 ft of sidewalk and then the road. I had to disable motion detection alerts on my Ring doorbell because I was getting alerted every five minutes.

 

[acbytesla]

Can't do that here. I live in the city, there's my front door 4 ft of sidewalk and then the road. I had to disable motion detection alerts on my Ring doorbell because I was getting alerted every five minutes.

Different motion detectors have different levels of sensitivity. Nevertheless it's hilarious to watch them freakout on the video.

 

[Galaxie]

Forget the polls, 538, and The Economist. What good are they if we can't guarantee the votes will actually get counted? What if key state electors get replaced? I can't rest easy until Trump is escorted from the White House.

 

[dudalb]

Forget the polls, 538, and The Economist. What good are they if we can't guarantee the votes will actually get counted? What if key state electors get replaced? I can't rest easy until Trump is escorted from the White House.

If that happens, the US will be in state of upheavel amounting to a second Civil War..