2020 Presidential Election

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Trebuchet said:
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is suing Montana -- MONTANA! -- to prevent them allowing counties the option of mail-in voting.
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Cook Political Report has the Montana Senate race as a toss up, that may be a reason.

Or they just like to sue ...
 
angrysoba said:
Yes, but it is also a favourite of conspiracy theorists. Who gains from the 9/11 Terror Attacks? Why, Dick Cheney and his shareholders of Halliburton, of course. Therefore they MUST have been behind it.

There are plenty of people who feel they benefit from riots. Some people just enjoy them or they feel it is a good way to get back at people they hate. Then of course, there is the attendant looting: Who benefits when someone smashes a brick through a window and makes off with brand new sneakers, clothes, games, and whatever else takes their fancy? Well, presumably the looters do, if they don't get caught by the police.

The rioters and looters are the cause of the rioting and the looting.
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Recall that Kellyanne Conway recently said in about as many words that the rioting, looting and chaos benefits Trump.

And note that Trump is essentially egging it on.

So we need not resort to surmise in divining that Trump has an interest in the maintenance of violence.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I live in the Seattle suburb of Bellevue. My son lives in Seattle and only recently moved out of the neighborhood next to the CHOP Zone. No one said there wasn't anyone harmed by the small number of idiots who think the noise they are making is making a difference. They are not a serious part of BLM.

But the issue here was the absurd distortion there were/are "'huge sections' of American cities burned out."
So don't shift the goal posts and expect no one will notice.
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OK, fair enough. "huge" and "large" are certainly subjective terms.

We can all agree that there have been multiple buildings burned or destroyed across a number of different cities during the recent violent protests, and that the damage to those cities is a significant voting issue in this election.

Specifically if I could narrow it down, the primary issue is with certain mayors and governors who have refused to take meaningful steps to stop the violence, and have purposefully allowed it to occur sometimes nearly unabated.

I would consider the aerial photos of damage in Kenosha and Minneapolis to be "large," and "huge," and there is no one who can claim that the images of that destruction do not exist, even if they don't want to look at them.

How significant of an issue that is to each individual person, and how they would describe the damage to those cities certainly varies by person, but it is definitely significant enough for both candidates to spend a good amount of their focus, time, and money on.



If Trump is reelected, I would consider it entirely possible that he would force a government response in these areas even if it went against the wishes of the local governments there. Which could potentially lead to serious conflict between local and Federal forces. If the State police for example were ordered to prevent DHS forces from entering into places like Portland or Seattle, than there would be the possibility for a much wider conflict.

I think that it is entirely possible that Trump would force a Federal response early in order to stir up a fight that he thinks would be politically advantageous to him. His call to withhold Federal funding to cities like Portland, Seattle, DC, and New York to force them to deal more forcefully with violent protesters is certainly an effort to stir up a fight. Although instead of a physical fight, that is a battle that would be waged in news articles and the courts.

The most significant change that would actually make real steps to reduce the violence will be combating rogue District Attorneys who have stated that they will not enforce the laws for violent protesters. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/12/chicago-portland-protester-charges/

If Biden is elected, I would expect him to find solutions that work more collaboratively with local leaders, but finding solutions to the continued violence would likely still be a major focus. He will still have to deal with many of the same issues that Trump has had to deal with though. Including local governments who are disinterested in protecting the safety of their citizens, and rogue DAs who purposefully enable the violence to continue. How he navigates his potential future responsibilities along with his current messaging to win the election will be a delicate dance for him.
 
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Trump suggests that North Carolina voters should test mail-in system by trying to vote twice

Wow.

"Let them send it in and let them go vote, and if the system is as good as they say it is, then obviously they won't be able to vote," Trump told local station WECT after arriving in Wilmington, North Carolina.

Voting twice in the same election is illegal, and doing so deliberately is an example of the very kind of voter fraud that Trump has spent months railing against. In North Carolina, it is a felony "with intent to commit a fraud to register or vote at more than one precinct or more than one time, or to induce another to do so, in the same primary or election, or to vote illegally at any primary or election."
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HoverBoarder said:
Trump suggests that North Carolina voters should test mail-in system by trying to vote twice

Wow.
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He knows some of his supporters will do it. A significant amount of his cult drank bleach at the mere mention of it maybe being effective.

Here is what will happen. Some of his cultists will vote twice, they'll get caught. Then Trump will show this as proof that voter fraud is occurring and that the only reason Republican voters are caught is because of the deep state refusing to catch the Democratic voter frauds...
 
From the Trump thread:
Elagabalus said:
Sheesh. No kidding! I was about to ask SG if the salon story was only being talked about on Fox. I'm sure CNN MSNBC are all covering it too.
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Fox ran the story, Tucker Carlson amplified it, the salon owner is making money off it plus she's a Trump supporter, a twofur for her, Pelosi had to respond that it was a set-up... so yeah it is all over the news.

But it belongs in the 2020 election thread so I'll copy paste this post over to here.
 
FiveThirtyEight said:
Theories that the unrest following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, would benefit President Trump electorally appear to have been wrong -- at least so far. To the contrary, a new ABC News/Ipsos survey found that most Americans think the president is making the situation worse, while majorities think Joe Biden would do a better job handling the protests, racial discrimination and uniting the country. Meanwhile, Biden’s lead in national polls has narrowed since the Republican National Convention, but only slightly.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Links to polls on that page.

538 has Biden with only a 71% chance to win, but the blue states look more solid than Trump's. In fact from the "ribbon diagram" there seems to be a lot of states close to swing state status this year.

ETA: FiveThirtyEight also has Trump's popularity back where it was in May, though.
 
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It's about halfway between 100% and a coin toss. Which is both reassuring and scary. Almost 3 out of 4 chance to win sounds good, but we all know that events with a ¼ probability happen all the time. One fourth of the time, in fact.

I'm trying to look at it from the bright side and remember that 70-80% is still a big number.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Links to polls on that page.

538 has Biden with only a 71% chance to win, but the blue states look more solid than Trump's. In fact from the "ribbon diagram" there seems to be a lot of states close to swing state status this year.

ETA: FiveThirtyEight also has Trump's popularity back where it was in May, though.
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You are definitely right that there are a lot of States in the swing category this year.

It looks like the three States that are closest are North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona.

Biden is slightly favored to win all three of those states, but can still win if he loses all three of those states as long as he wins Pennsylvania.

It's pretty wild to me that Nevada is so solidly blue though. Out of the last 13 presidential elections, they have had 5 out of 13 go blue.
 
HoverBoarder said:
Trump suggests that North Carolina voters should test mail-in system by trying to vote twice

Wow.
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Alternative interpretation:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301528521026744322

North Carolina is supposed to have safeguards in place against double voting. This is good. We expect those safeguards. We want those safeguards. And we can actually verify those safeguards.

Mail in your ballot. If the safeguards are working, you should be able to go down to your polling place on election day and see that you're already accounted for. They won't let you vote again.

But what happens if you get to your polling place and you're *not* already accounted for? You mailed in your ballot, but for some reason there's no record of it. Did they get it? Was it recorded? You have no idea. As far as the safeguards are concerned, you haven't voted at all yet. In that situation, if you take voting seriously, you should vote at your polling place.

You should probably also push for a thorough audit of the safeguards, and harsh penalties for whoever had the job and screwed it up.
 
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