2020 Presidential Election

[The Great Zaganza]

At this point in the Election, I welcome the tendency for the Media to see the race as more competitive than it probably is - it will make it more likely that this time, voters actually vote.

 

[JoeMorgue]

But the thing is, Trump has been doing that his entire political life, ever since he started running in 2016. He did win the presidency back then, but lost the popular vote (and the dynamics of this election are very different than that one.)

I think somewhere along the line, the falsehoods probably quit having an impact on the undecided voter, and he's only making those claims for his own base.

I guess the question is, is Trump actually experiencing a rise in the polls?

If you look at the 538 polling average fivethirtyeight.com:
Currently, Trump sits at 42.9%. This is exactly where he was back on June 1. Since that time he has varied between around 41% and 43%. And the spread between Biden and Trump sits at 7%, which is lower than it had been a few weeks ago, but higher than it was on June 1. (Yes, you do occasionally hear about polls that show a much narrower gap, but there are also plenty of polls showing the spread between them still at 8 or 9%.)

The amazing thing about this election so far has been the consistency in the polling... Both sides have their convention, polls remain static. Another cop shooting and rioting break out... polls remain static. An increase and subsequent decrease in Covid19 cases.... polls remain static. Republican attacks on Biden... polls remain static. Biden selects Harris as VP candidate... polls remain static.

That's something I've been noting for years now, ever since Trump got into the public life as viable candidate.

From... about a month out from him getting the nomination to now no matter what's been going on, no matter how many crises pile up, no matter how many disasters he causes, no matter how the question is worded, no matter who's doing the polls Trump's popularity and questions directly related to it stays at "About 40 percent."

To the point that anytime in question is asked that boils down to "Do you like Trump" or is one step removed from same you can just go ahead and go assume the answer is going to be "About 40 percent."

Trump's a man who somehow got elected with a 61% unfavorability rating and that number hasn't really budged in any significant direction since.

It's... weird. And disconcerning since he won the last election with the same crappy level of approval. Hell the 46.1% of the popular vote he got in the 2016 general election might be the highest the ****** has ever actually "polled."

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

But the thing is, Trump has been doing that his entire political life, ever since he started running in 2016. He did win the presidency back then, but lost the popular vote (and the dynamics of this election are very different than that one.)

Of course he has. He directs them to anyone who insults him in any way. These specific lies are directly aimed Biden and the election.

I think somewhere along the line, the falsehoods probably quit having an impact on the undecided voter, and he's only making those claims for his own base.

I guess the question is, is Trump actually experiencing a rise in the polls?.....

I hope not.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Can anything change Americans’ minds about Donald Trump?
The eerie stability of Trump’s approval rating, explained.

VOX: https://www.vox.com/2020/9/2/214093...-election-voters-coronavirus-convention-polls

On August 27, 2019, President Donald Trump held a 41.3 percent approval rating and a 54.2 percent disapproval rating, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker. During the 365 days that followed, Trump became the third president impeached by the House of Representatives; America assassinated Iranian general Qassem Soleimani; more than 200,000 Americans died from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus; the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 percent to 10.2 percent; the US banned incoming travel from Europe, China, and Brazil; an estimated 12 million people lost health insurance coverage; Trump pardoned Roger Stone, who was facing jail time for dirty tricks on the president’s behalf; and George Floyd’s murder sparked a nationwide movement protesting for racial justice — to which officials responded by tear-gassing demonstrators in Lafayette Park in Washington, DC, so Trump could pose for a photograph holding a Bible.

That is, of course, a bitterly incomplete list of a grimly consequential year in American history. But you’d never know it simply by following Trump’s poll numbers. On August 27, 2020 — one year later, and the day Trump used the White House as a backdrop for his convention speech — FiveThirtyEight had Trump at 42.2 percent approval and 54.3 percent disapproval. Everything had happened, and politically, nothing had mattered. Or, at the least, not much had changed.

 

[Stacyhs]

I agree that Trump's popularity is about the same. People have made up their minds on who they will vote for and nothing will change their minds at this point. What will make the difference on whether he wins or loses this time is how many people actually vote. We need for people to get off their arses and VOTE for Biden, especially in those crucial swing states. We need for people to make sure they have active registration, especially in those states where some skulduggery has gone on.

 

[HoverBoarder]

The protests and riots also help explain his rise in the polls. Look at all the paranoia, conspiracy theories, and general fear mongering when Obama won the presidency. Look at Trump's statements and policies. Look at the things the trumpkins themselves say and do. They're terrified of coloured people. Blacks protesting, and even some rioting, must be their worst nightmare come true.

The echo chambers do everything they can to amplify this effect, of course, but I think there would've been an effect regardlessly.

The rioters are certainly giving Trump his best chance of winning, and he is certainly going to milk it for all its worth.

All of Portland may not be on fire, but you do have protesters in Portland trying to set fire to an apartment building just because the mayor lives there. All the families who live there, let them burn I guess, because BLM??

Plus huge sections of Kenosha and Minneapolis that have been burned down.


Biden is still WAY out in front, and has a nearly unbeatable lead, but it really could take a few more major incidents for that to change. If the protesters in Portland had succeeded last night and burned all those families and the mayor alive, it very well could have been enough to change the election.

A disaster like that is not that far off either. With all of the mobs of violent people who have been allowed to burn large sections of cities, assault people with immunity, and have received political and media cover to carry out their illegal actions, it really is just a game of time and chance if they cross the line too far.

Especially since rogue DAs like Multomah County DA Mike Schmidt, and King County DA Dan Satterberg have publicly declared that they will not enforce the laws for protesters. Oregon Sherifs who refused to add their police forces to the quell the Portland riots until the protesters shield of immunity is released noted that:

“The same offenders are arrested night after night, only to be released by the court and not charged with a crime by the DA’s Office. The next night they are back at it, endangering the lives of law enforcement and the community all over again,”


Biden certainly is taking the threat seriously, and has put out an ad denouncing the rioters, plus blaming all of the violence on Trump. The problem with that is that most of the violence has occurred in areas where politicians have taken steps to purposefully allow it to happen.

I predicted that this violence will have somewhere between a 3%-8% hit for Biden depending on how bad it gets in the next few months.

 

[Stacyhs]

These agitators who are responsible for the violence, looting, fires, etc. need to be arrested and prosecuted.
I don't care who they are or what their motives are, whether they're BLM, Antifa, or right-wing Trump supporters or whatever. This needs to stop.

 

[angrysoba]

These agitators who are responsible for the violence, looting, fires, etc. need to be arrested and prosecuted.I don't care who they are or what their motives are, whether they're BLM, Antifa, or right-wing Trump supporters or whatever. This needs to stop.

This could be where things become a problem for Biden against Trump.

Trump can just push the idea that this is violence in Democrat areas, and that Biden etc... are on the "defund the police" bandwagon.

Trump will keep painting himself as the law and order president who wants to bring back the rule of law through the National Guard and is just being hampered in his attempts by the usual political and bureaucratic red tape that he was elected to office to destroy.

 

[Minoosh]

The rioters are certainly giving Trump his best chance of winning, and he is certainly going to milk it for all its worth.

Who gains from the violence? Republicans. Therefore, who has a greater incentive to perpetuate the violence?

It's not an ironclad formula, but "cui bono?" is a concept in criminology for a reason.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?

 

[Mike!]

Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?

I have it on the highest authority that this is a picture of downtown Portland, taken just moments ago...

 

[Minoosh]

Can anything change Americans’ minds about Donald Trump?
The eerie stability of Trump’s approval rating, explained.

VOX: https://www.vox.com/2020/9/2/214093...-election-voters-coronavirus-convention-polls

That article raises an interesting question - why do so many people expect approval ratings to go up and down? Trump's approval never changes - and he never changes, so maybe that makes sense. Not cracking much over 40 percent would unnerve other presidents, but Trump just goes with the presumption that he can win with a minority so he keeps that minority happy.

I do think the 40 percent probably unnerves some of his allies in Congress.

 

[angrysoba]

Who gains from the violence? Republicans. Therefore, who has a greater incentive to perpetuate the violence?

It's not an ironclad formula, but "cui bono?" is a concept in criminology for a reason.

Yes, but it is also a favourite of conspiracy theorists. Who gains from the 9/11 Terror Attacks? Why, Dick Cheney and his shareholders of Halliburton, of course. Therefore they MUST have been behind it.

There are plenty of people who feel they benefit from riots. Some people just enjoy them or they feel it is a good way to get back at people they hate. Then of course, there is the attendant looting: Who benefits when someone smashes a brick through a window and makes off with brand new sneakers, clothes, games, and whatever else takes their fancy? Well, presumably the looters do, if they don't get caught by the police.

The rioters and looters are the cause of the rioting and the looting.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Who gains from the violence? Republicans. Therefore, who has a greater incentive to perpetuate the violence?

It's not an ironclad formula, but "cui bono?" is a concept in criminology for a reason.

Sure, if the large groups of violent protesters sat down, and did a thorough cost/benefit analysis on what is the best strategy to achieve their long term goals, they would not be doing many of the actions they are undertaking.

The fact that they are not doing that is the reason why we are in our current situation.

Now obviously that creates an enormous incentive for a Right Wing extremist group to carry out an act of terrorism that they could blame on the protesters, but the protesters have shown that they are more than happy to do that kind of self inflected damages themselves, and the Right Wing extremists would be taking a major risk if their attack was not attributed to the protests.

The safest move for the Right Wing Extremists is to continue to allow the violent protesters to do their own damage, The best move for the larger group of peaceful protesters who actually do want to make serious and real social justice change, would be to stop the violent protesters, but they have largely shown that the can't/won't do that.


Now this is a double edged sword for Biden. By most polling, he has at least a 70% of winning the election according to 538, and it really is his race to lose. In all likelihood, he is going to be in Trump's position soon, and will have to be the one dealing with the problematic Governers, mayors, and DA offices who purposefully have set up the conditions for the violence to continue.

He will have to walk a fine line in dealing with them in order to win the election, but would also have to confront them to make major changes in their immunity for violent offenders if he wants the rioting to stop.

 

[angrysoba]

Sure, if the large groups of violent protesters sat down, and did a thorough cost/benefit analysis on what is the best strategy to achieve their long term goals, they would not be doing many of the actions they are undertaking.

The fact that they are not doing that is the reason why we are in our current situation.

Now obviously that creates an enormous incentive for a Right Wing extremist group to carry out an act of terrorism that they could blame on the protesters, but the protesters have shown that they are more than happy to do that kind of self inflected damages themselves, and the Right Wing extremists would be taking a major risk if their attack was not attributed to the protests.

The safest move for the Right Wing Extremists is to continue to allow the violent protesters to do their own damage, The best move for the larger group of peaceful protesters who actually do want to make serious and real social justice change, would be to stop the violent protesters, but they have largely shown that the can't/won't do that.


Now this is a double edged sword for Biden. By most polling, he has at least a 70% of winning the election according to 538, and it really is his race to lose. In all likelihood, he is going to be in Trump's position soon, and will have to be the one dealing with the problematic Governers, mayors, and DA offices who purposefully have set up the conditions for the violence to continue.

He will have to walk a fine line in dealing with them in order to win the election, but would also have to confront them to make major changes in their immunity for violent offenders if he wants the rioting to stop.

Yeah, Biden hasn't and won't want to ally himself too closely with the BLM protests given their unpredictability and occasionally to turn violent.

 

[Minoosh]

These agitators who are responsible for the violence, looting, fires, etc. need to be arrested and prosecuted.
I don't care who they are or what their motives are, whether they're BLM, Antifa, or right-wing Trump supporters or whatever. This needs to stop.

This is probably not the right thread, but: Why is this attitude not shared by the powers that be in Portland? To the extent possible, IMO they should be booking people or at least issuing as many citations as possible. I know that sounds un-American, but charges can always be dropped later. Meanwhile I want to know, who are these people? Not in some metaphysical sense, just literally. Local? Out-of-towners? Eagle Scouts? Hardcore felons?

If they end up being sucked up by federal police, transparency takes a major hit because in my experience it's a lot harder to extract the information from the DOJ under the best of circumstances, even when their big boss is not trying to manufacture spin.

Maybe this is already happening and I'm just unaware.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?

I am not sure why you would need someone to Google that for you, but sure.

I also don't want to get too far into a sidetrack. However, the peaceful protests for social justice change, and the violent riots that have been apart of a number of cities are likely the most important factor in determining the election behind COVID 19.

How those affect polling and the ads/messaging from the candidates on those issues should likely be the focus for this particular issue in terms of this thread.


You can see plenty of pictures of burned sections of cities if you look for it.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/l...ion_841011d8-1f69-584b-b99e-8640ecbd4945.html

https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/...is-show-the-extent-of-destruction-from-riots/


My best friend in college who grew up in Minneapolis told me that "there is not a gas station or grocery store left that is not burned down within five miles of where I used to live.

I responded "that's terrible, are they going to rebuild?"

"Naw man," he said. "They're all poor man."

"That's sad," I responded.

 

[angrysoba]

This is probably not the right thread, but: Why is this attitude not shared by the powers that be in Portland? To the extent possible, IMO they should be booking people or at least issuing as many citations as possible. I know that sounds un-American, but charges can always be dropped later. Meanwhile I want to know, who are these people? Not in some metaphysical sense, just literally. Local? Out-of-towners? Eagle Scouts? Hardcore felons?

If they end up being sucked up by federal police, transparency takes a major hit because in my experience it's a lot harder to extract the information from the DOJ under the best of circumstances, even when their big boss is not trying to manufacture spin.

Maybe this is already happening and I'm just unaware.

Because "Abolish the police!"?

 

[angrysoba]

My best friend in college who grew up in Minneapolis told me that "there is not a gas station or grocery store left that is not burned down within five miles of where I used to live.

I responded "that's terrible, are they going to rebuild?"

"Naw man," he said. "They're all poor man."

"That's sad," I responded.

Don't **** where you eat, my friend!

 

[HoverBoarder]

Yeah, Biden hasn't and won't want to ally himself too closely with the BLM protests given their unpredictability and occasionally to turn violent.

That's the tricky thing for Biden. He has to be VERY aligned with BLM, but distance himself from the more radical and destructive ideas of the official BLM organization (but not their reasonable ideas).

He has to be VERY aligned with the protesters, but not with the ones who are violent, and careful around the ones who may not be violent, but support the ones who are violent.

He needs to be sympathetic to the hundreds of businesses who have moved out of cities or closed because of the violence, but very supportive sometimes of the people who drove them out.


It is an incredibly difficult dance to do, and he will need Kamala's eloquence and input on how to best do that.

So far he has done a pretty good job, but if he takes one massive misstep, it could definitely cost him the election.