2020 Presidential Election

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Do you see any evidence that Dems are working on a "get out the vote" effort there?

Honestly no. The national TV adds are about 50/50 constant Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-etc. For local elections the Republican adds are outplaying the Democratic ones massively.

Again COVID might be a factor but I'm not getting the "Swing state" vibe here as much as I did in 2016. Maybe the Dems are focusing more elsewhere.

But this is all just coming from one limited perspective.
 
The "creepy uncle" angle is tiresome pearl-clutching. It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it.

And it's more often than not from the Trumpers, of course, one of the biggest creeps to become president.
I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.
 
I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.

Also remember there was the rape allegation a few months back, that, while never disproven was shown to be more and more far-fetched as investigations went on. Also one Trump fan tried to claim that Biden complimented a young girl’s breast at an event that Biden could not have been at. That makes any more ‘creepy’ bits (which Biden did address somewhat and apologize for) a bit weak and need to be pushed uphill.
 
I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.

On the other hand, Trump will try anything and know that his fans don't care about hypocrisy.

Remember that he brought those who made allegations against Bill Clinton to sit in the front row of his debate with Hillary Clinton.
 
The sad thing is the Democrats can't do such tactics or the holier than thou Independents and "fence sitters" might see that as the Democrats taking a radical left turn.
 
The sad thing is the Democrats can't do such tactics or the holier than thou Independents and "fence sitters" might see that as the Democrats taking a radical left turn.

Trump presents himself as an ******* and he is an *******. He wins all of the "I want an *******" vote.

Trying to chase the "I want an *******" vote when you are not an ******* is a bad strategy. Yes, it lacks authenticity and yes, people who want to vote for a dignified candidate are going to be put off by someone who tries 4Chan tactics.
 
I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.
I've known a few "handsy" guys who were not creepy. Some of them are, of course, but I had one boss who was just like that ... he could walk up and put an arm around me and I would think nothing of it. Even though I was 25 and he was 60.
 
I wonder if they'll go for the pedophile angle. There are some pictures of Biden kissing kids, appearing to look at the chest of a young girl, touching a (prepubescent) girl on the chest, et cetera. It made a stir on social media earlier in the campaign, but seems to have been forgotten about since......
I can't see this being credible to anyone except Trump's cultists.

And as for bringing Biden's accusers to the debates, meh. I suspect Trump will try because he wants YV scandal.
 
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I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.
LOL. Trump lies. Trump wants to be respected. Trump lies to get respect. The men of power in Hollywood are sexual predators. Trump boasts about being a predator.

Meanwhile we have actual video of Biden acting creepy. And we have you looking at that video and saying, yeah, there's a pedophile narrative there. And that's a pro-Biden view of the situation.
 
As for Trump, with all the leaks and tell-all books there have been, I'm sure there's people with even worse material on him waiting to drop it as an October surprise.
If they plan to time it that way to try to affect the election, they're ignorant of the situation we're facing and how it got this way.

A brief summary of the politics-watching life of a Republican/conservative or even a resident of a mostly Republican/conservative area...

•Turn on a TV news show/channel that isn't Fox: watch them fling a bunch of false accusations about what horrible monsters you and almost everybody you know are, along with famous Republicans you don't personally know.
•Read an article about politics online or in a newspaper: watch them fling a bunch of false accusations about what horrible monsters you and almost everybody you know are, along with famous Republicans you don't personally know.
•Listen to or read speeches by famous Democrats: more of the same
•Meet a Democrat or political lefty in person who wants to talk about politics: get yelled at with false accusations about what horrible monsters you and everybody you know are, try to reason with them, just get interrupted with more of the same because they're not listening because they're too anxious to tell you more about what you supposedly think according to them instead of hearing anything you actually think.
•Go online to forums or chatrooms or Twitter or whatever, any that aren't set up by and for Republican/conservative members: get treated to more of the same kind of behavior as the in-person one except that it's technically impossible to interrupt you but they still pay just as little attention to anything you say as an interrupter anyway because they're all too busy writing their next post to tell you how what they magically know you really think is something completely different from what you already told them you think, and there are lots more of them than you could meet in person so there's also the benefit of the "getting ganged up on" effect and watching them high-five each other over how much dishonesty & rabidness they manage to pack in per post.
•Try to just stay out of all of that and live & let live: still get reminded of it periodically by in-your-face types trying to pick fights and infuse politics into everything else in life anyway, including in "entertainment" TV & movies that still always manage to present your kind of people as the stereotype that all the Democrat/lefty hate-speech claims you are no matter how non-political the subject might originally have been.

There's not a lot of point in tossing one more attack onto the pile for an audience that's already used to the fact that the other side is always coming up with more & more false accusations & other lies. It's what they've been surrounded by for years, often essentially their whole lives. That's the framework through which any new ones added now will be interpreted. They already know not to believe the next one before it even happens, because political life is always just more of the same over & over again.

It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it.
I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed.
Everything about Trump is always why anything against Biden fails, with help from the "ELECTABLE!!!" mantra.

But, aside from that, creepiness works pretty differently for adults and children. In adults, it's always assumed to be sexual, but in children there's a dichotomy. Then, sexual becomes much worse, but, as long as it's not sexual, it's not an issue at all to a lot of people because a lot of people, at least non-sexually, think it's just fine to act like you, non-sexually, own children's bodies. They're not generally acknowledged to have the right to refuse hugs, shoulder-grabs, head-pats, hair-strokes, pinches, lap-sitting, & so on until they get old enough for the automatic universal sexual element to apply. (And the people who are the most prone to see it this way are the very old, which are Biden's personal base.)

So, what has Biden done that either was unmistakably sexual, or involved old enough targets to be out of the "it's OK to do any non-sexual thing you want to them" age range? There was something at an event he wasn't even at, and the rape thing that fizzled away, but that's all that anybody seems to remember. I've seen one case where he gave a woman the classic stroke-her-lower-jaw-toward-her-chin move, which says "I'm about to kiss you so I'm putting your face in kissing position", but somehow that's remained very obscure. I've only seen it once and I've never seen anybody else act at all aware of its existence. And anything that people don't know about, no matter how horrific it is, can't affect people's behavior. So that just leaves only the stuff that people do know about, which is just stuff that our culture treats as OK for really really old people (especially relatives, followed by famous people such as politicians) to do to children.
 
If Senate Republicans and the RNC let Trump **** up this election, they will truly have betrayed this country and have their party abolished.

Honestly, it would be best for the GOP just just close shop and open under a new name and management.
 
Honestly no. The national TV adds are about 50/50 constant Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-etc. For local elections the Republican adds are outplaying the Democratic ones massively.

Again COVID might be a factor but I'm not getting the "Swing state" vibe here as much as I did in 2016. Maybe the Dems are focusing more elsewhere.

But this is all just coming from one limited perspective.
That's what makes the perspective valuable, though. It's a data point about how effective campaigns are from the point of view of a reaching individual voters. The only ads I hear are for Dems and I'm in a kind-of swing state. The ones robo-calling the house every day are the RNC or Trump re-election organization. Maybe because I or my mom are registered Republicans. I'd be impressed if the Dems reached out to me, but it's not happening yet.

Actually I'm not hearing much about Biden in particular, either. But some health-care coalition is buying ads pointing out that Trump and the GOP put a lot of effort in wiping out the ACA without any plan in sight for helping make insurance obtainable for people with pre-existing conditions. My state also has a fairly unpopular Republican senator who I also never hear ads from.

I barely watch TV though. I am basing this on news-talk radio or what gets served up online. I hope to see billboards popping up because it's one of the few mediums that people can't really filter out.

ETA: I know the conventional wisdom is that advertising works to sway people's votes, but conventional wisdom fairly often turns out to be wrong these days.
 
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I'm hoping so too. My city was the only major metro area in Florida to go red rather than blue in 2016 and that was by a thin hair's margin. I'm really hoping it's one of the tipping points in the other direction this time.

All I can do is cast my one vote, but I'm in a place where that might actually matter at least a little.

I lived in Florida in 2016 and was registered as a unaffiliated voter. I would have thought I was a highly prized commodity (living in the Tampa area). You'd think I would have been inundated with calls and door knockers. Nothing. I had one flyer for Clinton on my door. That was it.

I see Biden's lead is narrowing in Florida. He was at around seven points ahead and is now about three. I'm curious to see if Trump's recent quotes about the military improves Biden's lead. His comments about Vietnam veterans likely won't help him in Florida being a state with a lot of retired military people as well as a lot of Military bases.
 
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I lived in Florida in 2016 and was registered as a unaffiliated voter. I would have thought I was a highly prized commodity (living in the Tampa area). You'd think I would have been inundated with calls and door knockers. Nothing. I had one flyer for Clinton on my door. That was it.

I see Biden's lead is narrowing in Florida. He was at around seven points ahead and is now about three. I'm curious to see if Trump's recent quotes about the military improves Biden's lead. His comments about Vietnam veterans likely won't help him in Florida being a state with a lot of retired military people as well as a lot of Military bases.

Could the narrowing of the lead just be part of the convention bounce? In which case it will probably - hopefully - wear off.
 
Could the narrowing of the lead just be part of the convention bounce? In which case it will probably - hopefully - wear off.

It looks like the lead narrowed before the conventions. At the height of Florida's pandemic crisis, Biden was seven points ahead. The lead narrowed by August. What's interesting is that Trump seems to have a ceiling of 45.5ish percent. Biden's numbers haven't really changed much throughout so there looks like a core of 48 percent of Florida voters who have already decided to vote Biden.
 
It would be nice to have a system where your vote counted toward your candidate as much as everyone else's. Right now, your vote only helps your candidate if said candidate wins your state. Republicans in California and Democrats in Texas might as well not bother voting for president. The only votes that really matter are a few independent voters in about six swing states. The rest of us are background noise.
 
I have not read one Trump focuses book yet, though I did read a few books related to voters that voted for Trump and their states and counties.

Now that we have an election coming up, I was finally going to read one. After election day. But since we will be counting votes for weeks, or until the Supreme Court, again, decides we do not need to count votes, I changed plans. (the court: Because it will be unfair to voters who are able to walk to polls and vote. Or something.)

But anyway, I will read Cohen's book as soon as it gets here.
 
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