Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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Nessie said:
Just back from a short visit to NI and Eire. Flicking through various local newspapers and there is a lot of concern about increasing tensions and a rise in paramilitary activity. There were also various reports of how relations between the DUP and Sinn Fein have worsened and the chances of the NI Assembly reconvening is very remote.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...-gulf-between-dup-and-sinn-fein-38421442.html

Ironically, it is now clearer where the border is, than at any other time I have visited, because of the signs demanding an open border.

The concern is that because those living in Ireland are in effect not being listened to and what they want is looking increasingly unlikely, the now quite fragile peace will collapse.
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Since a border seems inevitable at this point there seems like 3 options
1) Border between NI and the UK, NI effectively remains under EU rules for trade travel and customs
2) Border between NI and Ireland. NI is under UK rules, Ireland is under EU
3) Border (customs, not just travel) between Ireland and the EU, Ireland is effectively out of the EU and under UK trade, customs, product rules


As an outsider I’m assuming the fist would be the most viable politically in Ireland but is that the case and would it have sufficient support in NI?
 
One thing is heavily on the side of the second option. Northern Ireland did not vote to leave but to remain, and by 56%. Since then polls by LucidTalk are unequivocal.*Sixty percent of Northern Irish voters*are for some continued customs link to Ireland, explicitly separate from the rest of the UK. Even within the Unionist community, 40% are happy about a border down the Irish Sea. This surely is a sign of Northern Ireland’s evolving maturity. The province is a sufficiently distinct political entity, like Scotland, to be entitled to self-determination. If that brings it closer to Dublin, so be it.

This must be the moment for Johnson to call the DUP’s bluff. If Britain really is to crash out of the EU in two months, there will have to be border controls somewhere round the shores of the Irish Sea. The EU cannot let Ireland become open country for smuggling. Nor can Britain accept a flood of incoming EU food when its own exports are subject to EU tariffs.

A majority in the north is clearly ready for exceptional status. Northern Ireland would remain in the United Kingdom. It might be drawn more into the orbit of the south, but that has already been the consequence of the Good Friday agreement – and a welcome one. It is better than a slither back to super-partition, as horribly echoed in this week’s*paramilitary shooting*in Belfast.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/22/brexit-northern-ireland-border

A good article about why the backstop is not the actual problem itself. The British Government's dependence on the DUP and its hostility to Ireland and the EU is what causes the the problems with the backstop. Likewise they can't compromise with Labour because both because of this and their dependence on the ERG.
 
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catsmate said:
No Surrender. No Gays. No Catholics. No Abortion. No Pope.
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It should be noted here that this is a very accurate description and the DUP would likely not object to being described this way.

I'm honestly wondering how they became the largest single party amongst protestants, considering how extreme they are.
 
Nessie said:
Just back from a short visit to NI and Eire. Flicking through various local newspapers and there is a lot of concern about increasing tensions and a rise in paramilitary activity. There were also various reports of how relations between the DUP and Sinn Fein have worsened and the chances of the NI Assembly reconvening is very remote.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...-gulf-between-dup-and-sinn-fein-38421442.html

Ironically, it is now clearer where the border is, than at any other time I have visited, because of the signs demanding an open border.

The concern is that because those living in Ireland are in effect not being listened to and what they want is looking increasingly unlikely, the now quite fragile peace will collapse.
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COngratulations of the Brixters.They have taken two all but dead terrorist groups ,who had become totally irrevelent and a joke..and given them new life.
Bringing back "The Troubles" (Mark 3);Boris's great achievement.
 
lomiller said:
Since a border seems inevitable at this point there seems like 3 options
1) Border between NI and the UK, NI effectively remains under EU rules for trade travel and customs
2) Border between NI and Ireland. NI is under UK rules, Ireland is under EU
3) Border (customs, not just travel) between Ireland and the EU, Ireland is effectively out of the EU and under UK trade, customs, product rules


As an outsider I’m assuming the fist would be the most viable politically in Ireland but is that the case and would it have sufficient support in NI?
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No because the DUP does not want separate customs rules for NI than the rest of the UK. It is happy to have separate rules for NI for gays, abortion etc, but not customs.
 
Arcade22 said:
It should be noted here that this is a very accurate description and the DUP would likely not object to being described this way.

I'm honestly wondering how they became the largest single party amongst protestants, considering how extreme they are.
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They are not as extreme as you think they are, because you are applying your normal to NI.
 
Why would the peace collapse? The people who fought it are 20 years older. The people who would be young footsoldiers were toddler at the time. Why can't they just refrain from hurting people?
 
BobTheCoward said:
Why would the peace collapse? The people who fought it are 20 years older. The people who would be young footsoldiers were toddler at the time. Why can't they just refrain from hurting people?
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Two news stories over the past couple of days;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49414293

Over 450 attacks on places of worship over the past 3 years. The Troubles are still there, but they are low key.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...dead-at-petrol-station-in-waringstown-co-down

Organised crime and terrorism are linked due to a few thousand individuals who have also continued to fight the Troubles, but not in the name of The Troubles.

The Troubles have been simmering away for years and like a volcano people want to imagine is extinct, it can erupt at any time.
 
Nessie said:
Two news stories over the past couple of days;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49414293

Over 450 attacks on places of worship over the past 3 years. The Troubles are still there, but they are low key.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...dead-at-petrol-station-in-waringstown-co-down

Organised crime and terrorism are linked due to a few thousand individuals who have also continued to fight the Troubles, but not in the name of The Troubles.

The Troubles have been simmering away for years and like a volcano people want to imagine is extinct, it can erupt at any time.
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Why? Who are these ********?
 
Nessie said:
Two news stories over the past couple of days;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49414293

Over 450 attacks on places of worship over the past 3 years. The Troubles are still there, but they are low key.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...dead-at-petrol-station-in-waringstown-co-down

Organised crime and terrorism are linked due to a few thousand individuals who have also continued to fight the Troubles, but not in the name of The Troubles.

The Troubles have been simmering away for years and like a volcano people want to imagine is extinct, it can erupt at any time.
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And the young people have never really known what the troubles are really like. Sort of like some people have to touch a hot stove before they understand what it's like to get burnt.
 
lomiller said:
Since a border seems inevitable at this point there seems like 3 options
1) Border between NI and the UK, NI effectively remains under EU rules for trade travel and customs
2) Border between NI and Ireland. NI is under UK rules, Ireland is under EU
3) Border (customs, not just travel) between Ireland and the EU, Ireland is effectively out of the EU and under UK trade, customs, product rules

As an outsider I’m assuming the fist would be the most viable politically in Ireland but is that the case and would it have sufficient support in NI?
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There's a way to find out - hold a referendum in NI asking whether they prefer a border with Ireland or with the rest of UK. They're getting one of those things, most likely, so it's only fair that people most affected by the change get a say. Border with the rest of UK would be done in the context of NI-only backstop, something EU already stated to be an acceptable modification of the deal.

Of course DUP would throw a fit. How dares anyone ask the people what they want, what was voted on by the majority of the British electorate three years ago, even if the vote in NI was negative, must happen without clarifications. They call it "democracy".

McHrozni
 
lomiller said:
Since a border seems inevitable at this point there seems like 3 options
1) Border between NI and the UK, NI effectively remains under EU rules for trade travel and customs
2) Border between NI and Ireland. NI is under UK rules, Ireland is under EU
3) Border (customs, not just travel) between Ireland and the EU, Ireland is effectively out of the EU and under UK trade, customs, product rules


As an outsider I’m assuming the fist would be the most viable politically in Ireland but is that the case and would it have sufficient support in NI?
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Would the support in NI have any actual legal bearing aside from the strength of their vote in Parliament?

Does NI as a separate entity have any independent jurisdiction over how the UK decides to monitor and maintain its borders and what rules and regulations will be in force from the UK side?

I hadn't thought so, and it seems apparent that those in Parliament intent on Brexit (The majority, it would seem, and unlikely to change in any immediately foreseeable future.) are singularly uninterested in the desires of anyone who disagrees with them.

NI's only real hope of expressing its own will if that should be in conflict with Parliament's would be to divest itself of the UK Parliament.
 
Arcade22 said:
It should be noted here that this is a very accurate description and the DUP would likely not object to being described this way.

I'm honestly wondering how they became the largest single party amongst protestants, considering how extreme they are.
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Duverger's law in a FPTP electoral system. Not the rather different results in the PR based EUP elections.
 
Nessie said:
No because the DUP does not want separate customs rules for NI than the rest of the UK. It is happy to have separate rules for NI for gays, abortion etc, but not customs.
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Their self-indulgent howling at the vote on same-sex marriage and abortion access was mildly entertaining.
 
dudalb said:
And the young people have never really known what the troubles are really like. Sort of like some people have to touch a hot stove before they understand what it's like to get burnt.
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During the Troubles I used to share a flat with someone from the Creggan estate in Derry. She said that if you were a young lad there with poor employment prospects then joining a paramilitary group was your best choice for making money. Unemployment rates for poorer Cathholics continue to be well above average. Male catholic youth unemployment is 16.9%. Classic recruiting situation.
 
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