Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Arcade22]

Boris Johnson is back in the UK after his trips to Berlin and Paris. Despite the attempts of some in the media to suggest that he has achieved some sort of breakthrough (take a look at the Daily Express splash here - and then compare it with the Guardian’s take here, which of course is much more reliable), a solution to the Brexit crisis seems no closer than ever. And, as the Daily Telegraph (paywall) is reporting this morning, even if Johnson were to find an alternative to the backstop acceptable to the EU, Tory Brexiters are telling him that that would not be enough to persuade them to vote for the withdrawal agreement because there are other aspects of it that they want to change.

David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, told the Telegraph’s Brexit podcast that he had a whole shopping list of desired changes. He said:

I’d argue for contingency on the money. I’d argue for tighter limits, timetable limits, sunset clauses on ECJ and things like that. I’d have a small shopping list.

It wouldn’t be a ridiculous one, but one I think that any serious European Parliament and any European Council that wants a deal could go with.

If I were doing this for Boris, I would be insistent on is that they make the bill - the £39bn, the second half of it - contingent on progress on the future economic partnership.

And Sir Bill Cash told the paper:

You can’t restore self-government as a cut and paste operation and I am sure they understand that - taking parts of the withdrawal agreement.

We will be governed for a number of years by the other 27 member states under the existing draft withdrawal agreement ... even with the backstop removed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...y-problem-with-withdrawal-agreement-live-news

Basically, the idea that everything would be smooth sailing only if the backstop was removed, is completely unjustified. It's the main thing the hard Brexiter's have focused upon because they know there's no seriously alternative.

Note that David Davis, who was the former Brexit secretary and thus would presumably stay a little informed about the details, still somehow has failed to note that Britain's debt to the EU has been lowered to about 33 billion pound because it has yet to leave as planned.

 

[BobTheCoward]

It seems really scary that this is hinging on what people think a bunch of terrorists in island are going to do in response. Many of the worst US policies were enacted based on fear of terrorism.

All this significance placed on the backstop because of fear of renewed terrorist attacks seems like the same thing.

 

[Nessie]

During the Troubles I used to share a flat with someone from the Creggan estate in Derry. She said that if you were a young lad there with poor employment prospects then joining a paramilitary group was your best choice for making money. Unemployment rates for poorer Cathholics continue to be well above average. Male catholic youth unemployment is 16.9%. Classic recruiting situation.

That same situation exists now. The famous Harland & Wolff is likely to close completely.

All it takes is a few hundred to get organised with weapons (they have guns, they shoot each other and there was a journalist shot not so long ago), call themselves the "new" something or other paramilitary group and the Troubles starts to return.

 

[Nessie]

It seems really scary that this is hinging on what people think a bunch of terrorists in island are going to do in response. Many of the worst US policies were enacted based on fear of terrorism.

All this significance placed on the backstop because of fear of renewed terrorist attacks seems like the same thing.

I think not reigniting a war is a very good thing and that the Brexiteers ignored the problem of the border is a total disgrace.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I think not reigniting a war is a very good thing and that the Brexiteers ignored the problem of the border is a total disgrace.

The problem is Europe's solution is to hold their foreign relations hostage to these men by shaping their decisions around what these bad people do.

Domestic violence victims also shape their behavior to not provoke the wrath of a violent partner.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

It seems really scary that this is hinging on what people think a bunch of terrorists in island are going to do in response. Many of the worst US policies were enacted based on fear of terrorism.

All this significance placed on the backstop because of fear of renewed terrorist attacks seems like the same thing.

While not re-starting The Troubles is a worthy goal, an at least equal EU concern is that an open border on the UK's terms would mean that there is a quite significant open border that would allow UK firms to ignore border tariffs and create unfair competition within the EU markets.

 

[Lothian]

I think not reigniting a war is a very good thing and that the Brexiteers ignored the problem of the border is a total disgrace.

It is not that the Brexiteers ignored the border problem it is that they continue to ignore it and are actively heading toward arrangements that require a hard border without being open and honest about it. They have the EU as the fall guy so don't care what troubles arise. They will claim innocence and the wish of the public when in reality neither is true. A hard border can be avoided, ideally avoiding a damaging brexit as well.

 

[Nessie]

The problem is Europe's solution is to hold their foreign relations hostage to these men by shaping their decisions around what these bad people do.

Domestic violence victims also shape their behavior to not provoke the wrath of a violent partner.

The EU and the terrorists (and the rest of Ireland) want the same thing, an open border. No one is holding any one to hostage or shaping their behaviour to suit another there.

 

[Darat]

Why would the peace collapse? The people who fought it are 20 years older. The people who would be young footsoldiers were toddler at the time. Why can't they just refrain from hurting people?

The peace has never existed. The Troubles intensity changed. They have still been trying to kill each other for the last 20 years, still planting bombs and so on. Still knee capping people and so on.

 

[Nessie]

The peace has never existed. The Troubles intensity changed. They have still been trying to kill each other for the last 20 years, still planting bombs and so on. Still knee capping people and so on.

The end of The Troubles was

- the army leaving
- Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness agreeing to cooperate and getting on amazingly well
- no more bombs in public places on the scale of Omagh in 1989
- no more attacks in the UK mainland
- no more paramilitary attempts to buy large scale weapons from abroad (which had pretty much stopped anyway)

 

[BobTheCoward]

The EU and the terrorists (and the rest of Ireland) want the same thing, an open border. No one is holding any one to hostage or shaping their behaviour to suit another there.

These last couple pages make it sound like the EU wants an open border because the terrorists want an open border.

Both the abused wife and violent husband want the their football team to win, too.

 

[Wudang]

These last couple pages make it sound like the EU wants an open border because the terrorists want an open border.

Both the abused wife and violent husband want the their football team to win, too.

No. The open border is, amongst other things, to keep the terrorists on both sides quiet(er). The GFA is a clever compromise that lets the Unionist terrorists claim they are still part of the UK and the Republican terrorists pretend it's a united Ireland, or enough of their support do.

The EU wants an open border partly because Éire does and the EU backs its member states and secondarily because it is an essential part of the GFA.

 

[The Don]

These last couple pages make it sound like the EU wants an open border because the terrorists want an open border.

Both the abused wife and violent husband want the their football team to win, too.

Then you have completely misunderstood the last couple of pages.

The EU would like the border on the island of Ireland to stay open (as long as the circumstances of Brexit allow that to happen) regardless of the Good Friday Agreement.

The overwhelming majority of people on the island of Ireland would like the border on the island of Ireland to remain open.

The majority of people in Britain would like the border on the island of Ireland to remain open.

One of the feared side effects of a hard border, that only a tiny minority of hard line Brexiteers seem to want, is that it could result in a flaring up of sectarian violence in Ireland.

 

[Lothian]

No. The open border is, amongst other things, to keep the terrorists on both sides quiet(er). The GFA is a clever compromise that lets the Unionist terrorists claim they are still part of the UK and the Republican terrorists pretend it's a united Ireland, or enough of their support do.

The EU wants an open border partly because Éire does and the EU backs its member states and secondarily because it is an essential part of the GFA.

A lot of "Irish Terrorism" is really a cover for organised crime. The organised criminals want a hard border in that they want a large differences in prices either side of the border so they can profit by smuggling goods between the two. Of course they would rather do that without the inconvenience of a stop and search so an open border would greatly assist.

While the terrorists idea of two connected regions with very different trading relationships, rules, duties and tariffs, yet there being absolutely no controls over the border sounds totally ludicrous, may I introduce you to the UK Government's position.

 

[Information Analyst]

Why would the peace collapse? The people who fought it are 20 years older. The people who would be young footsoldiers were toddler at the time.

Twenty-odd years of listening to the grandfathers, fathers, uncles, etc. banging on about whatever they got up to before the GFA, whether that was full-on paramilitary activity, or just the fun of lobbing petrol bombs at the RUC/army of a Friday night. If just one in a hundred of the young ones think "that must have been great," it's a potential problem if things kick off again.

 

[Wudang]

A lot of "Irish Terrorism" is really a cover for organised crime. The organised criminals want a hard border in that they want a large differences in prices either side of the border so they can profit by smuggling goods between the two. Of course they would rather do that without the inconvenience of a stop and search so an open border would greatly assist.

While the terrorists idea of two connected regions with very different trading relationships, rules, duties and tariffs, yet there being absolutely no controls over the border sounds totally ludicrous, may I introduce you to the UK Government's position.

Also the UDA in particular do a lot of drug smuggling and distribution.

 

[Lothian]

Also the UDA in particular do a lot of drug smuggling and distribution.

I recall a friend telling me his uncle was doing a job and was paying 'protection money to the IRA or UDF (I can't remember which). A bit into the job the other lot, the UDF or IRA, came round looking to offer their own protection services.

It was explained that a protection product had already been obtained and the new 'providers' promised to go and check. A couple of days later they came back and confirmed that there was a legitimate product in place so there was no need to buy theirs.

The two sides were in cahoots. As long as someone was paid they didn't much care.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Then you have completely misunderstood the last couple of pages.

The EU would like the border on the island of Ireland to stay open (as long as the circumstances of Brexit allow that to happen) regardless of the Good Friday Agreement.

The overwhelming majority of people on the island of Ireland would like the border on the island of Ireland to remain open.

The majority of people in Britain would like the border on the island of Ireland to remain open.

One of the feared side effects of a hard border, that only a tiny minority of hard line Brexiteers seem to want, is that it could result in a flaring up of sectarian violence in Ireland.

Then my objection is to bringing up side effects as if it is an argument. If I was wrong and it wasn't a normative argument, then fine.

 

[GlennB]

Then my objection is to bringing up side effects as if it is an argument. If I was wrong and it wasn't a normative argument, then fine.

You're doing that "weaponising skepticism" thing again, Bob.

 

[BobTheCoward]

You're doing that "weaponising skepticism" thing again, Bob.

I'm taking the claim of fact of the impact of a hard border as given. I'm not questioning if that is true or not.