Trump's Taiwan Call

[Skeptic Ginger]

China is not yet prepared to do that successfully.

But it's not going to come to anything even like that. China's own response (blaming it on the Taiwanese and not Trump) is a pretty clear indicator that this isn't going to escalate.

This conclusion assumes Trump will not respond to his faux pas with further buffoonery. My thought is that is wishful thinking on your part and is inconsistent with what we've seen Trump do for the last year and a half.

China has given Trump an out, perhaps wishful thinking on their part.

 

[sunmaster14]

I'll answer my own question here since you won't:
What China could do to Taiwan is bomb and invade it.

China is not militarily capable of invading Taiwan. Sure, they could destroy Taiwan with nuclear missiles, but an actual invasion would result in an utter humiliation.

You can cheer Trump for taking a call from the Taiwanese president. It means diddly-squat. The only thing that means anything is an iron-clad guarantee that the US will go to war with China for Taiwan.

Well, there's also the billions of dollars in arms sales that continued through Obama's administration.

 

[NoahFence]

China is not militarily capable of invading Taiwan. Sure, they could destroy Taiwan with nuclear missiles, but an actual invasion would result in an utter humiliation.

Oh please, elaborate on that.
From where in sitting, that's one of your most absurd statements.
And that's saying a lot.
How would China get militarily humiliated by Taiwan?

 

[theprestige]

Taiwan is still the Republic of China.

The government of Taiwan (the Republic of China) operates independently from, and in defiance of, the government of mainland China (the People's Republic of China).

ETA: Please tell me you didn't read an entirely ignorant and contrafactual history of the past 114 years of Chinese history, into the coincidental similarity between the two nation's names.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

This conclusion assumes Trump will not respond to his faux pas with further buffoonery. My thought is that is wishful thinking on your part and is inconsistent with what we've seen Trump do for the last year and a half.

China has given Trump an out, perhaps wishful thinking on their part.

Here's my worst-case scenario:
Trump implements his promised protectionistic policies and starts a trade war with China. The worsening economic situation causes discontent. China steps up the martial rhetoric to focus domestic discontent at a foreign foe. Through threatening war-games and incidents in the south china sea, the situation deteriorates. The US considers economic sanctions but finds that the trade war has fired that powder.
The Chinese leadership decides that it might as well take Taiwan. With economic ties already in shambles and social unrest growing, war is a way to fix those issues rather than something that creates them.

 

[theprestige]

Oh please, elaborate on that.
From where in sitting, that's one of your most absurd statements.
And that's saying a lot.
How would China get militarily humiliated by Taiwan?

China does not have the sealift capacity right now to transport enough troops to establish a beach head in the face of the entrenched and modern army Taiwan has diligently built up over the years to stop them.

China does not have the naval firepower to support the forced landing of such an invasion.

China does not have the air force to establish air superiority against the modern air force and integrated air defense system Taiwan has diligently built up.

Did you really think it was an oversight of China's, that they haven't retaken Formosa yet?

 

[TragicMonkey]

I have no problem with the US changing its long-standing policy on Taiwan, a policy I always found morally repugnant. I do, however, have a problem with the president-elect doing it by accident without consulting Sino-American relations experts in State and Intelligence.

Don't worry, he's putting his best daughter on it. There may be a hotel deal in it!

 

[theprestige]

I have no problem with the US changing its long-standing policy on Taiwan, a policy I always found morally repugnant. I do, however, have a problem with the president-elect doing it by accident without consulting Sino-American relations experts in State and Intelligence.

What are they going to tell him, except to continue the repugnant policy because reasons?

Maybe it's high time we had a President Honey Badger to set State and Intelligence on their ears and shift their paradigm instead of letting them shift his.

Trump isn't even president yet, and already he's done more to end this repugnant policy than Obama did in eight years, and more than Hillary (WWNBP) would have done in another eight.

 

[Nonpareil]

This thread is getting sidetracked.

Is it a good idea, or a morally correct one, for the US to change its policy on Taiwan? Maybe. Maybe not. But that isn't the point.

The point is that Trump has no idea whether it is or it isn't. Hell, it's doubtful that he even realized that there was a situation there to begin with, or that his words would be taken as indicative of a major policy shift by foreign governments, or that he was acting against protocol to just pick up the phone and casually chat about such things with a foreign power.

And he probably doesn't even care.

That is horrifying.

 

[Ziggurat]

Oh please, elaborate on that.
From where in sitting, that's one of your most absurd statements.
And that's saying a lot.
How would China get militarily humiliated by Taiwan?

China can pound Taiwan with ballistic missiles (even the non-nuclear sort), but in order to actually invade Taiwan, it needs to get a LOT of troops and equipment onto the island, and the only way to do that is with boats. But during that crossing, they would be very, very vulnerable. It's not a symmetric fight: Taiwan's defense task is much easier than China's offense task.

And China can't draw out a siege indefinitely either. China must plan for US assistance to the island as well. One form of that assistance could be basically shutting of China from shipping. That would cripple China: it's still dependent on oil imports from the middle east coming in on tankers.

China is working towards being able to invade Taiwan, but they aren't there yet.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

The government of Taiwan (the Republic of China) operates independently from, and in defiance of, the government of mainland China (the People's Republic of China).

Indeed, it does. The Republic of China used to control all of China until Mao's communists took over the country and founded the People's Republic of China.
The old government retreated to the island of Taiwan. Both governments claimed to be the one legitimate government of China.
AFAIK, the ROC does no longer actively pursue its claim on the mainland. It has never officially renounced it either.

 

[Ziggurat]

This thread is getting sidetracked.

Is it a good idea, or a morally correct one, for the US to change its policy on Taiwan? Maybe. Maybe not. But that isn't the point.

The point is that Trump has no idea whether it is or it isn't. Hell, it's doubtful that he even realized that there was a situation there to begin with, or that his words would be taken as indicative of a major policy shift by foreign governments, or that he was acting against protocol to just pick up the phone and casually chat about such things with a foreign power.

And he probably doesn't even care.

That is horrifying.

Alternate take from Scott Adams, who got a lot about Trump right from the start:
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/153990140846/trump-and-the-taiwan-call
"But if you look at this situation through the filter of a Master Persuader, it makes perfect sense. Trump is “setting the table” for future negotiations with China. He just subtracted something from China’s brand that they value, and later he will negotiate with them to maybe give it back in some fashion. Probably in return for some trade concessions."

Now, what was your track record in predicting Trump? Is it as good as Adams? Why should I believe your take rather than his?

 

[theprestige]

Indeed, it does. The Republic of China used to control all of China until Mao's communists took over the country and founded the People's Republic of China.
The old government retreated to the island of Taiwan. Both governments claimed to be the one legitimate government of China.
AFAIK, the ROC does no longer actively pursue its claim on the mainland. It has never officially renounced it either.

What does this have to do with your claim that Taiwan reciprocates the PRC's view that Taiwan is part of the PRC and that the PRC has the right to control their communication with foreign leaders?

 

[sunmaster14]

Oh please, elaborate on that.
From where in sitting, that's one of your most absurd statements.
And that's saying a lot.
How would China get militarily humiliated by Taiwan?

I guess you've been answered already, but here is the most recent DOD report on China's military power. And a relevant excerpt (my emphasis added):

Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the
most complicated and difficult military
operations. Success depends upon air and sea
superiority, rapid buildup and sustainment of
supplies on shore, and uninterrupted support.
An attempt to invade Taiwan would strain
China’s armed forces and invite international
intervention. These stresses, combined with
China’s combat force attrition and the
complexity of urban warfare and
counterinsurgency (assuming a successful
landing and breakout), make amphibious
invasion of Taiwan a significant political and
military risk. Taiwan’s investments to harden
infrastructure and strengthen defensive
capabilities could also decrease China’s ability
to achieve its objectives. Moreover, China
does not appear to be building the
conventional amphibious lift required to
support such a campaign.

The first part I bolded is why I think it would turn into a humiliation for China. When an amphibious invasion fails, it usually fails spectacularly. There's nothing quite like sinking troop transports to cause eye-popping casualty numbers. It's one of the reasons General Eisenhower prepared an "In Case of Failure" letter just before Operation Overlord began on D-day. It's also why Exercise Tiger was such an enormous disaster (although largely unknown), and the torpedoing of a German troop transport eight months later was the greatest maritime disaster in history.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Don't worry, he's putting his best daughter on it. There may be a hotel deal in it!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

China can pound Taiwan with ballistic missiles (even the non-nuclear sort), but in order to actually invade Taiwan, it needs to get a LOT of troops and equipment onto the island, and the only way to do that is with boats. But during that crossing, they would be very, very vulnerable. It's not a symmetric fight: Taiwan's defense task is much easier than China's offense task.

And China can't draw out a siege indefinitely either. China must plan for US assistance to the island as well. One form of that assistance could be basically shutting of China from shipping. That would cripple China: it's still dependent on oil imports from the middle east coming in on tankers.

China is working towards being able to invade Taiwan, but they aren't there yet.

You seem to think China has but a single option. I suspect they are smarter than you and have more options that you envision.

 

[Ziggurat]

You seem to think China has but a single option. I suspect they are smarter than you and have more options that you envision.

You're completely wrong, as usual. I recognize that China has lots of options. But most of those options don't involve military force. China recognizes that too, which is why (surprise!) it's not using military force.

 

[NoahFence]

China does not have the sealift capacity right now to transport enough troops to establish a beach head in the face of the entrenched and modern army Taiwan has diligently built up over the years to stop

How'd you become an expert on what China can and cannot do?

 

[theprestige]

You seem to think China has but a single option. I suspect they are smarter than you and have more options that you envision.

China has tons of options. At this time, none of those options are "amphibious invasion of Taiwan". It's not a question of smarts. It's a question of sealift and air superiority, among other practical challenges.

 

[Loss Leader]

Trump isn't even president yet, and already he's done more to end this repugnant policy ...

... by accident ...