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Trump's Taiwan Call

Mader Levap said:
Well, if they want monies doing business with Trump, they risk being shafted. I wouldn't be doing business with known conman. In fact, with literally biggest conman in world.
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As a conman, he is very good at building people's confidence that he has their best interest in mind and will make them tons of $$$. Take a look at Trump University for a prime example. Then, take a look at the POTUS election for another example.
 
thaiboxerken said:
As a conman, he is very good at building people's confidence that he has their best interest in mind and will make them tons of $$$. Take a look at Trump University for a prime example. Then, take a look at the POTUS election for another example.
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You see the man clearly, but the Taiwanese government has fallen for his tricks? That's your explanation for their call?
 
Ziggurat said:
Alternate take from Scott Adams, who got a lot about Trump right from the start:
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/153990140846/trump-and-the-taiwan-call
"But if you look at this situation through the filter of a Master Persuader, it makes perfect sense. Trump is “setting the table” for future negotiations with China. He just subtracted something from China’s brand that they value, and later he will negotiate with them to maybe give it back in some fashion. Probably in return for some trade concessions."

Now, what was your track record in predicting Trump? Is it as good as Adams? Why should I believe your take rather than his?
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Even if you (and Adams) are right (I'm not sure you are), I see another danger in Trump's personality:

I think he likes it this way.

He likes to be feared. To be seen unpredictable. To be one to be careful to be around. To stir things up. To break protocol on purpose.

That's a good strategy for business negotiations in the western world. But extremely dangerous for diplomacy between super powers.

The problem, if I am right, is that it WILL blow up in his face at some time (even if it worked right now, given how China's administration is backpedaling, diplomatically). I don't have a problem with it blowing up in his face and taking him out when this happens. I DO have a problem that this might take half the world with it down the crapper.
 
theprestige said:
Yes it has. GGM has claimed that the PRC considers Taiwan part of the PRC, and that Taiwan reciprocates the claim.
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Lets put this more rationally.

All parties: both rival Chinese governments and the USA: accept that Taiwan is a province of a single China. The PRC and the RoC each claim to be the legitimate government of the whole of that unitary China, including Taiwan Province. At present the USA, and of course the PRC, recognise the PRC's claim to be the legitimate government of China. So does the UN, because the PRC replaced the RoC as China's UN representation in 1971.

But every one of these agencies recognises Taiwan's de jure status as a province of China.
 
Fudbucker said:
Our policy regarding Taiwan has been based on a convenient fiction that both sides have tolerated: Taiwan is kind-of/sort-of independent. That's never a viable long-term strategy. Better we change it now then later.
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Why? It's been perfectly viable for decades. Given the economic ties between Taiwan and the PRC the latter has no interest in changing the status quo so long as Taiwan stops short of declaring independence. Trump has bumbled his way into this situation by yet again saying whatever came to mind in the moment, there is no policy or plan at work.

theprestige said:
You see the man clearly, but the Taiwanese government has fallen for his tricks? That's your explanation for their call?
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More likely they expected the usual reassurances about their status, but were more than happy to receive what they took to be a shift in policy.
 
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theprestige said:
What does this have to do with your claim that Taiwan reciprocates the PRC's view that Taiwan is part of the PRC[...]
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I explained how this strange situation came about. I can see how it is not obvious why what superficially looks like a small island nation would consider itself part of China. It is because it considers itself, for historical reasons, the legitimate government of China.
Both agree that there is one China. The PRC considers Taiwan a part of its territory and the ROC reciprocates by considering the mainland part of its territory.

[...] and that the PRC has the right to control their communication with foreign leaders?
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Definitely not something I said.
I think back in the day, the ROC probably took a dim view towards foreign governments contacting the PRC but that's before my time.
 
Garrison said:
Why? It's been perfectly viable for decades. Given the economic ties between Taiwan and the PRC the latter has no interest in changing the status quo so long as Taiwan stops short of declaring independence. Trump has bumbled his way into this situation by yet again saying whatever came to mind in the moment, there is no policy or plan at work.



More likely they expected the usual reassurances about their status, but were more than happy to receive what they took to be a shift in policy.
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Why would they take it to be a shift in policy, any more than you do? Why would they have an expected the usual assurances from Trump, any more than you did?
 
Darat said:
Good to see that arch liberal and known leftist Reagan policies are being overturned!
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Actually, the sell out began under his successor. Key issue was opening the door to US institutions of higher learning, which was more restricted under Reagan than Bush 41. Your sarcastic joke in re "leftist" is appreciated. :thumbsup:

One of the few posts worth reading in this silly thread was by FMW. I suggest all involved read it again.
 
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Darat said:
Some people say: Trump's Taiwan phone call preceded by hotel development inquiry

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nquiry?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
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If you want to know what is going on, go to news sources outside the US.:rolleyes:

Has this been reported here and I just missed it?
China has frozen ties with Taiwan because of Tsai’s refusal to acknowledge the “One China” policy since her inauguration in May.

Given the tension with Beijing, some analysts questioned the wisdom of the Tsai administration’s decision to go ahead with the call.

Francis Hu, the head of politics at Taichung University, said it was not “prudent” to talk for so long and portray it as a diplomatic breakthrough in US-Taiwan relations.
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No wonder China blames Taiwan. The tension preceded the call. And Trump looks like a pawn.

And then there is the blatant conflict of interest with Trump in early negotiations over building a hotel(s) near a new airport that is to be built in Taiwan.

Gaffe or provocation, Donald Trump's Taiwan phone call affects global stability
According to the Taipei Times however, the call had been orchestrated by the Trump transition team, several members of which have strong leanings towards a more pro-Taiwan policy.

On the same day as the call, Trump met John Bolton, a former US ambassador to the UN, a candidate for the secretary of state job, and a fierce advocate of stronger commitment to Taiwan as a way of exacting a price for China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
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Great, now we have that ******* Bolton asserting his radical position. Did Trump even know he was duped by Bolton?
As has also become normal in the “post-truth” aftermath of the bitter election, the facts surrounding his telephone conversation with Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen are in dispute. Reacting to the wave of alarm caused by the call, upending 37 years of US diplomatic practice in a few minutes, the president-elect protested in a tweet that it was Tsai who had called him, implying he just happened to pick up the phone.
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Or is Trump following Bolton's lead because Trump has chosen mostly alt-right advisors?


Then there's this problem, Chinese leaders are clearly smarter than Trump and no doubt anxious to prove it given Trump's rhetoric claiming the US can get a better deal with China trade:
He added: “It’s far more worrying for global stability if Beijing believes that Trump and his advisers just didn’t understand US policy towards Taiwan. If they view this as a blunder, they could decide to move quickly to exploit Trump’s inexperience and incompetence in foreign affairs, and Obama’s lame-duck status.”
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The Trump camp believes Trump, and believes Obama's diplomacy was from a position of weakness. We are about to find out which position is correct. IMO the 'America the bully' position is outdated and no longer going to be successful going forward. Those people nostalgic for the 50s are in for a rude awakening that is only bound to make the US weaker.
 
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For his next move in brilliant diplomacy Trump is going to contact the Klingons and insult their honor.
 
Darat said:
Because whatever else he is he is going to be the next USA president.
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But he isn't yet. I dunno if there's a word for the opposite of a lame duck president but that's the notch he's in. And the political chess players all know it.

Taiwan is small, not weak.
 
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Darth Rotor said:
Actually, the sell out began under his successor. Key issue was opening the door to US institutions of higher learning, which was more restricted under Reagan than Bush 41. Your sarcastic joke in re "leftist" is appreciated. :thumbsup:

One of the few posts worth reading in this silly thread was by FMW. I suggest all involved read it again.
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"Sellout"? I never figured you'd be in agreement with the John-Bircher-Nixon-was-a-commie crowd..

Or am I misreading your post?
 
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theprestige said:
Why would they take it to be a shift in policy, any more than you do? Why would they have an expected the usual assurances from Trump, any more than you did?
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I offered my view, you don't like it let's hear yours.
 
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well who expected trump to behave badly and unreliably?
what a surprise..


how many Americans would a) know where Taiwan is and b) understand the issues?

Just wondering after I have met people who didn't know where Australia is, and saying undernearth Indonesia didn't help much.....
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Well I'm sure you have some links then that refute the ones I posted.

Bottom line, the US, China and Russia are still rival superpowers. Yes, we may have the most powerful military, and Russia hasn't recovered from the collapse in the 80s. But if you think China is no more than a fly the US can swat when we want to, you are poorly informed.


By the way, it would appear you think internal economic troubles in China because they haven't had the large growth this decade means their whole economy is on the brink. If that's the case, the US wasn't a superpower in 2008 when our housing bubble collapsed.
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I love the confidence you exude when it comes to international relations. You must be the best informed nurse in the ward!

That said, I more or less agree that China's economic prowess isn't anything to ignore. I'm just tweaking you here.
 
The "one-China" policy is one of those idiotic fictions that diplomats engage in but which have no real-world meaning. Yes both mainland aka Red China and Taiwan pretend to be in charge of both areas but really don't have control over the other. About the only thing it means is that they can't send separate delegations to the UN and the Olympics.
 
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