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Trump's Taiwan Call

Giz said:
Well, it could be serious. JFK gave the soviets an impression of weakness early in his presidency, leading them to try and push their luck and giving us the Cuban missile crisis. Hopefully Trump doesn't make a similar mistake early in his presidency. I'd hate to see trump negotiating a cuban-esque stand off.
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Well, I'd hate to see that too, but at this point all we have is the New York Times acting as a conduit for Chinese government propaganda. The article is laughable. It could easily have been spun 180 degrees the other way. Or it could have been spun as Trump being less crazy than he seemed. I have no doubt whatsoever, if this were 8 years ago, and Obama had done precisely what Trump did, the New York Times would be making it look like some sort of victory for Obama and that Obama was wisely allowing the Chinese to save face by blustering a bit through their propaganda organs.
 
sunmaster14 said:
Well, I'd hate to see that too, but at this point all we have is the New York Times acting as a conduit for Chinese government propaganda. The article is laughable. It could easily have been spun 180 degrees the other way. Or it could have been spun as Trump being less crazy than he seemed. I have no doubt whatsoever, if this were 8 years ago, and Obama had done precisely what Trump did, the New York Times would be making it look like some sort of victory for Obama and that Obama was wisely allowing the Chinese to save face by blustering a bit through their propaganda organs.
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No argument with that.
 
Fudbucker said:
Anything can be used as a bargaining chip.
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Not if the one you are negotiating with has explicitly stated that said thing is non-negotiable. The Chinese government is under huge amounts of pressure to stress it's legitimacy and Trump is under no pressure whatsoever to recognize the ROC. It was really stupid and raised tensions with China for no other reason than to impress the slackjawed yokels who voted for him by appearing "strong".

If Trump recognized Taiwan, you think China would break all ties with us?
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Absolutely. All formal diplomatic ties. Moreover China would very likely have launched an invasion of Taiwan not soon after.

A lot of what we get from China are non-essential consumerist goods, processed foods/snack foods, furniture, clothing, etc. A lot of what China imports from us are essential goods and staples: corn, soybeans, aircraft, industrial machinery, etc. I think Trump could call China's bluff on Taiwan.
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I'm sure Trump thought the same thing. He was going to be "hard" and "tough" on China cause that's what you need to be. Then reality came crashing down and they demanded he publicly confirm his commitment to the one-china policy.
 
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Fudbucker said:
Anything can be used as a bargaining chip. If Trump recognized Taiwan, you think China would break all ties with us? A lot of what we get from China are non-essential consumerist goods, processed foods/snack foods, furniture, clothing, etc. A lot of what China imports from us are essential goods and staples: corn, soybeans, aircraft, industrial machinery, etc. I think Trump could call China's bluff on Taiwan.
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Instead Trump has shown he was bluffing.
He threw his hand before the Flop.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Instead Trump has shown he was bluffing.
He threw his hand before the Flop.
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It sounds more like a raise followed by a check, which isn't always a bad move. I think Trump is perfectly capable of recognizing Taiwan, and I think the Chinese think he is capable of it, which puts him in a stronger position, even if he's currently backing the one-China policy. He could always change his mind...
 
Arcade22 said:
Not if the one you are negotiating with has explicitly stated that said thing is non-negotiable. The Chinese government is under huge amounts of pressure to stress it's legitimacy and Trump is under no pressure whatsoever to recognize the ROC. It was really stupid and raised tensions with China for no other reason than to impress the slackjawed yokels who voted for him by appearing "strong".
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I can see you would be a pushover in negotiations. All the other side has to do is say "Hey, this is nonnegotiable."

For the record, everything is negotiable, just like everything has a price. It's just a matter of how much it costs.

To be more specific, there is a great deal to negotiate with respect to what a one-China policy even means. For example, we technically recognize that Taiwan is a rogue province of the PRC, but we sell billions of dollars of state-of-the-art military equipment to it in most years. Is that changing? Are we going to be selling less, or perhaps more? Does a one-China policy mean that our President will not accept a phone call from a Taiwanese diplomat? It did before, but right now I have no idea if it still does. What are the negative consequences of Trump taking that phone call from the Taiwanese president? That Xi wouldn't talk to Trump until a couple of days ago? That the Chinese government gets to brag that Trump will be honoring the one-China policy? Big gains for China. :rolleyes: And what did we get? Who the hell knows? The New York Times doesn't seem to know. Or care. And you sure don't know.

My point is that it's a bit early to say whether or not the US won this round or China did, or if it was (and this is most likely) it was an inconsequential blip in relations. At least relative to the most hysterical appraisals of Trump's Presidency, or the Democrats' (but I repeat myself), things have gone pretty well because we haven't yet found ourselves in a shooting war with China.


Absolutely. All formal diplomatic ties. Moreover China would very likely have launched an invasion of Taiwan not soon after.
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Nonsense. NFW.

I'm sure Trump thought the same thing. He was going to be "hard" and "tough" on China cause that's what you need to be. Then reality came crashing down and they demanded he publicly confirm his commitment to the one-china policy.
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Did he publicly confirm it? What does that even mean? We still don't have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, so it's hard to say that we ever denied the one-China policy.
 
Fudbucker said:
It sounds more like a raise followed by a check, which isn't always a bad move. I think Trump is perfectly capable of recognizing Taiwan, and I think the Chinese think he is capable of it, which puts him in a stronger position, even if he's currently backing the one-China policy. He could always change his mind...
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He might have already, for all he knows.
 
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Arcade22 said:
Not if the one you are negotiating with has explicitly stated that said thing is non-negotiable.
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Of course China would say that. Obama also had his "red line".

The Chinese government is under huge amounts of pressure to stress it's legitimacy and Trump is under no pressure whatsoever to recognize the ROC. It was really stupid and raised tensions with China for no other reason than to impress the slackjawed yokels who voted for him by appearing "strong".
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I can see Trump doing it to enhance his position in future negotiations. If Trump believes he can recognize Taiwan AND still maintain ties with China, he'll threaten to do so to get a better a deal. You say China would suspend all ties with us. I doubt it. They have much more to lose than us.



Absolutely. All formal diplomatic ties. Moreover China would very likely have launched an invasion of Taiwan not soon after.
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Which would certainly fail. China is nowhere near ready to mount an invasion like that. We would see the buildup immediately and have so many assets in the region the invading forces wouldn't make it halfway through the straight. China is not going to invade Taiwan.


I'm sure Trump thought the same thing. He was going to be "hard" and "tough" on China cause that's what you need to be. Then reality came crashing down and they demanded he publicly confirm his commitment to the one-china policy.
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Citation?
 
CapelDodger said:
No. They'd put the economic choke on Taiwan and see what Trump does about it.
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The powers-that-be in China seem to be a little nervous lately. If Trump officially recognized Taiwan who knows what the Communist party would do to stay in power. Perhaps they would think an invasion of Taiwan, even if doomed to failure, would preserve their grip on power.
 
Fudbucker said:
The powers-that-be in China seem to be a little nervous lately. If Trump officially recognized Taiwan who knows what the Communist party would do to stay in power. Perhaps they would think an invasion of Taiwan, even if doomed to failure, would preserve their grip on power.
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Or just undercut their prices. again.
 
Fudbucker said:
The powers-that-be in China seem to be a little nervous lately. If Trump officially recognized Taiwan who knows what the Communist party would do to stay in power. Perhaps they would think an invasion of Taiwan, even if doomed to failure, would preserve their grip on power.
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Would it be doomed to failure? The U.S. would, under most presidents, defend Taiwan, but it's not an easy defense even if you're throwing everything into the island. I'm far from knowledgeable on this subject, but I'd sure think that the Chinese could prevail in Taiwan, even if the president of the U.S. was committed to defending them.

Perhaps I'm naive. You let me know.
 
phiwum said:
Would it be doomed to failure? The U.S. would, under most presidents, defend Taiwan, but it's not an easy defense even if you're throwing everything into the island. I'm far from knowledgeable on this subject, but I'd sure think that the Chinese could prevail in Taiwan, even if the president of the U.S. was committed to defending them.

Perhaps I'm naive. You let me know.
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I posted a link about it a couple posts ago. It's the best article I've read about China's ability to invade Taiwan. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/thinking-about-a-us-china-war/
 
Foolmewunz said:
I see he's saying there won't be a shooting war. That should be worrisome with his track record.
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No one's perfect, but his points about China's problems mounting a successful invasion are spot on. The buildup would be obvious long before the actual invasion, and I can't picture Trump turning a blind eye to an attack on Taiwan, but every prediction I've made about Trump has been wrong so far, so who knows?
 
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