Who Won the Debate?

Who won the debate?

  • Trump

    Votes: 7 5.1%

  • Clinton

    Votes: 129 94.2%

  • Draw

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Total voters
    137
  • Poll closed .
marplots said:
Well, when you put it that way, it's hard to believe anyone would vote for him. Maybe they are just faking the numbers to get us riled up. Like they do with global warming temperatures.
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It IS hard to believe. But here we are. Even the most childish, insane and moronic amongst us get a vote.

Unfortunate, but hey. Nothing lasts forever. Not even democracy.
 
NoahFence said:
It IS hard to believe. But here we are. Even the most childish, insane and moronic amongst us get a vote.

Unfortunate, but hey. Nothing lasts forever. Not even democracy.
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Voter ID would fix that. Both thats.
 
Nothing stuck out to make Hillary special. Neither did Trump really. Trump walked into several issues unprepared and had a serious weakness moment with the birther issue in the tax record. I'm not sure how well it served Hillary at the end of it since each time she got those tabs off on him he got her to walk into issues of her own. In the first 30 minutes of that debate Trump did better than expected
 
The Don said:
Not that close (by U.S. election standards) at 52/48. In only 1 election out of the past 6 has the winning candidate secured a greater proportion of the popular vote

...and the polls had it 48/52 so they were wrong by 4%

The degree of error (which was put down to "shy" leave voters) would have Trump home and dry based on the current state of the polls.
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The polls were closer than that.

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/uk-european-union-referendum


The online Brexit polls regularly and repeatedly showed support for the Leave position which was not reflected in the "official" opinion polls. Come election day they "shy" leavers, the ones who in the "official" opinion polls said that they were undecided or even Remain (but who on anonymous online polls were voting remain in drives), decided to vote Leave. I see a similar pattern developing here. The same kind of people who wouldn't say that they would vote Leave (some combination of old, white, poor, stupid) won't currently say they'll vote Trump.
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It is extremely terrible logic to say that because online Brexit polls showed leave winning, that online polls that show that Donald won the debate are valid.

Online polls where anyone can vote as many times as they want are total garbage. End of story.
 
MikeG said:
Huh? In absolute terms this is nonsense. Could you tell us what you mean, please?
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Lots of white people are afraid of brown people. Probably the main reason why Brexit won. There are a lot less white people in the US than in the UK.
 
Tony Stark said:
It is extremely terrible logic to say that because online Brexit polls showed leave winning, that online polls that show that Donald won the debate are valid.
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Well maybe I'm just reading too much into it but the parallels are obvious to me. We have in essence an binary election where all good sense, and expert opinion, says that there is only one way to reasonably vote. We have a populist campaign on the other side of the debate appealing to ignorance, nationalism, racism and which purports to be a message of clearing away the old guard where those leading the campaign could not me more establishment.

They're appealing to the same target groups with the same message and getting the same results in the "official" opinion polls (too close to call) and online polls (the "rabble" running away with it).

Don't be too shocked if the result is the same, an on the day four percentage point swing which gets the populist idiots the vote they want.

Tony Stark said:
Online polls where anyone can vote as many times as they want are total garbage. End of story.
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Go on telling yourself that. OTOH consistent polls on a variety of sites over a period of time seems to indicate a strength of opinion which will likely eventually be reflected at the ballot box (though obviously not to the same extend).
 
The Don said:
Well maybe I'm just reading too much into it but the parallels are obvious to me. We have in essence an binary election where all good sense, and expert opinion, says that there is only one way to reasonably vote. We have a populist campaign on the other side of the debate appealing to ignorance, nationalism, racism and which purports to be a message of clearing away the old guard where those leading the campaign could not me more establishment.

They're appealing to the same target groups with the same message and getting the same results in the "official" opinion polls (too close to call) and online polls (the "rabble" running away with it).

Don't be too shocked if the result is the same, an on the day four percentage point swing which gets the populist idiots the vote they want.



Go on telling yourself that. OTOH consistent polls on a variety of sites over a period of time seems to indicate a strength of opinion which will likely eventually be reflected at the ballot box (though obviously not to the same extend).
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I know for a fact that online polls where you vote as many times as you want are completely worthless. Anyone who says otherwise has no clue what they are talking about.
 
Tony Stark said:
Obviously I am saying in percentage terms. It is a clear fact. I will prove it if you insist.
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Why did I have to work so hard to get you to say this? I even said "In absolute terms this is nonsense". It is also nonsense in terms of the language you used. You never said proportionately, or anything like it. You said there were more, and there aren't.
 
The Don said:
I know, they phoned people at random and got a greater proportion of Democratic Party supporters than they did Republican supporters and so we shouldn't be too surprised that the poll broke towards Hillary.

As recent elections show, the US population splits pretty evenly so we shouldn't be shocked if, had the random selection been a more even split, that the result would not have been more even.



Then the Hillary campaign needs to be very careful indeed. If Trump already has a lock on Republicans and a clear lead in the Independents then they've got an uphill battle ahead of them.
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Clinton will be fine. She has bigger hands.
 
NoahFence said:
How would voter ID fix morons being able to vote? They should vote. Its their right.
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"Fix" is a double entendre in that post.

(Using a double entendre and a neologism in the same line gets me double the Internet points.)
 
marplots said:
Even that's a hurdle. Trump can be bombastic and still be fine. Hillary has to be very careful of "shrill", "mean spirited", and the ever popular "bitchy." There's a hurdle there. Passion serves Trump well, not her.

I don't see how Hillary being the first woman who might get elected president squares with this idea of it not really mattering much, what with all that the description brings to the table. Surely we can recognize the historical significance is at least in part due to our reluctance to elect a woman president? That shouldn't even be controversial.

She's made history already by being the first woman nominee from a major party, a party that makes great hay out of promoting women's rights generally and being sensitive to women's issues. Now the idea has to sell to the rest of the country, those outside the fold. I can't see how this could possibly be without serious gender-based challenges, despite the politically correct "how things ought to be."
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I don't disagree with that. In fact, in many ways I believe this is a larger leap than Obama getting elected. But my point is that we have been working towards this day just as we had been working towards gay marriage. A hundred years ago, women in the US were not allowed to vote. 43 years ago the saw the first female to become CEO of a Fortune 500 company.

Someone is going to do it. And you should consider this. By an overwhelming majority, people believe she is qualified and has the temperament to do the job. In contrast, the vast majority don't believe Donald is qualified or has the temperament.
 
Tony Stark said:
I know for a fact that online polls where you vote as many times as you want are completely worthless. Anyone who says otherwise has no clue what they are talking about.
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I disagree, they demonstrate a strength of feeling - especially if the results are repeated across polls and/or over a protracted period of time. Sure it could be a small number of people sufficiently motivated to vote repeatedly but then that prompts the question, why are those on the opposing side not so committed to the cause to place their vote ?

The online polls during the Brexit debate showed a strength of feeling that was not reflected in the "official" opinion polls and then come election day that strength of feeling made itself felt at the polls albeit to a lesser degree.
 
The Don said:
I disagree, they demonstrate a strength of feeling - especially if the results are repeated across polls and/or over a protracted period of time. Sure it could be a small number of people sufficiently motivated to vote repeatedly but then that prompts the question, why are those on the opposing side not so committed to the cause to place their vote ?

The online polls during the Brexit debate showed a strength of feeling that was not reflected in the "official" opinion polls and then come election day that strength of feeling made itself felt at the polls albeit to a lesser degree.
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You are just plain wrong. Who cares if a relative small number of Trump fanatics voted a bunch of times on some online polls. They can only vote once in the election. There were Bernie Bros that did the same thing during the primaries and he lost pretty badly.

I didn't bother to vote in any of those online polls because I know they are meaningless. I am still going to vote for Hillary as soon as I get my ballot in the mail.
 
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The Don said:
Not that close (by U.S. election standards) at 52/48. In only 1 election out of the past 6 has the winning candidate secured a greater proportion of the popular vote

...and the polls had it 48/52 so they were wrong by 4%

The degree of error (which was put down to "shy" leave voters) would have Trump home and dry based on the current state of the polls.



The online Brexit polls regularly and repeatedly showed support for the Leave position which was not reflected in the "official" opinion polls. Come election day they "shy" leavers, the ones who in the "official" opinion polls said that they were undecided or even Remain (but who on anonymous online polls were voting remain in drives), decided to vote Leave. I see a similar pattern developing here. The same kind of people who wouldn't say that they would vote Leave (some combination of old, white, poor, stupid) won't currently say they'll vote Trump.
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I think you're slightly misremembering on Brexit; the bigger issue in the UK was the 'likelihood to vote' weighting of those they polled. The vote was partly swung by people who didn't usually vote in elections, but voted to Leave.

Not sure there is a similar effect in this US presidential election, unless it is the relative turnout of 'angry white men'.
 
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