How long do we have to wait to see this backfire you speak of? If there is none, how long do we have to wait before you will admit you were wrong?
Backfire in the sense that it will increase his probability of winning the election rather than decrease it. How long do we have to wait? For the polls to stabilize in a couple of weeks, although it is difficult to attribute a move in the polls to any one factor. There is no doubt in my mind that the Khantroversy hurts Trump's polling in the short run. Polls often reflect how the respondents feel about the most recent news, and may not even reflect how somebody actually plans to vote on Nov. 8. For example, even a Republican who plans to bite the bullet and vote for Trump might answer that he'll vote for Hillary or a 3rd party candidate right now as a way of sending a message to the Trump campaign to reverse course. I would do that, although in my case it's a bit more complicated.
Anyway, I think it will backfire because, in the end, the attacks on Trump are way, way out of proportion to the offense. It might take a couple of weeks for that to sink into the collective consciousness. With the passage of time, I think people do tend to become more dispassionate about their analyses. Maybe some will even think that the inability of Trump to react the way a normal politician would, i.e. disingenuously, is a positive attribute. Makes him easier to understand or read.
The problem is that there is no way I'll be able to prove or disprove my proposition. If Hillary expands her lead in the polls over the next two weeks, I think it will provide evidence that I was wrong, but it won't be dispositive. The same goes for the case where her lead contracts again. Obviously, there are lots of other issues buffeting both campaigns.
Ultimately, though, Hillary is in a tough position if the spotlight ever moves to her again. The entire rationale for her candidacy is a paradox. She is the quintessential establishment candidate in an anti-establishment election year. She represents a continuation of the policies of the last 8 years, even though the majority of the electorate wants to see a big change in course. Her claim to have the experience to be President is undermined by the disastrous consequences of her tenure as the nation's chief diplomat. Her claim to be the safe choice for President is undermined by her incompetence in handling classified data and her corruption in covering it up. And her claim to be steadfast and resolute is undermined by her total capitulation to the left wing of her party in order to fend off Bernie's challenge.
Hillary's campaign is like a car with no brakes that is headed towards a cliff. Trump's campaign is like an electric car headed towards that same cliff, but with Trump's foot stomped on the accelerator. The moment he takes his foot off (and I'm not saying it will happen), his car will slow dramatically (due to regenerative braking) while Hillary sails on and over.
