So Wobs - what is waste heat???
Where is it coming from.....
Already explained, but see below
This doesn't even factor in geo thermal.....or wind, or ocean current, or tides....as "in the box" sources of power
Inconsequential at the scales we are talking about for the future given exponential growth.
It does not factor in efficiency against growth in complexity.
Your smart phone has thousands of times the capability of the NASA computers that were used for the moon landing and use a tiny amount of power ...
An excellent example. Computing has been getting faster, and better. Now, has the total energy use for all computing in the world grew since the moon landings? Of course it has.
Consider why - the improvements have resulted in more applications opening up, as cost and performance become more attractive.
Also, there are limits to how fast computers can get:
A 2011 study in the journal Science showed that the peak of the rate of change of the world's capacity to compute information was in the year 1998, when the world's technological capacity to compute information on general-purpose computers grew at 88% per year.[114] Since then, technological change has clearly slowed. In recent times, every new year allowed mankind to carry out roughly 60% of the computations that could have possibly been executed by all existing general-purpose computers before that year.[114] This is still exponential, but shows the varying nature of technological change.[115]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
So while we have seen some incredible improvements, many innovation cycles do slow down. And we fully expect to run into the limit of what can be acheived (see "Ultimate limits of the Law" in link which gives a range of estimates)
As I said before, there are limits to energy efficiency, and as economic growth continues, we will lose that battle even more than we are now. Remember that energy demand is currently far outstripping our energy efficiency improvements, world wide.
Is that economic growth Wobs?
It has helped economic growth, as more computers have been sold, and performed to enhance other activities to further profit, but the computer market can be interesting (from same link):
The primary driving force of economic growth is the growth of productivity,[116] and Moore's law factors into productivity. Moore (1995) expected that “the rate of technological progress is going to be controlled from financial realities.”[26] However, the reverse could and did occur around the late-1990s, with economists reporting that "Productivity growth is the key economic indicator of innovation."[11] An acceleration in the rate of semiconductor progress contributed to a surge in US productivity growth[117][118][119] which reached 3.4% per year in 1997-2004, outpacing the 1.6% per year during both 1972-1996 and 2005-2013.[120] As economist Richard G. Anderson notes, “Numerous studies have traced the cause of the productivity acceleration to technological innovations in the production of semiconductors that sharply reduced the prices of such components and of the products that contain them (as well as expanding the capabilities of such products).”[121]
And here is an interesting Time article:
In his report, Mills estimates that the ICT system now uses 1,500 terawatt-hours of power per year. That’s about 10% of the world’s total electricity generation or roughly the combined power production of Germany and Japan.
http://science.time.com/2013/08/14/...al-cloud-is-using-more-energy-than-you-think/
As noted, things like iPhones use a lot of energy, as they rely on data processes elsewhere, so their total energy footprint is far more than you think.
Is economic growth sellling a thousand times more books and movies and music with one millionth of the energy requirement.
I can't wait to find out how your infinite economic growth will prevent a growth in energy.
Are cars going to be using a millionth of the energy they are today? How about planes? Or kettles? Or AirCon? Or just electric motors?
Do you not think there is a limit to what can be acheived with computer development? Yes we will probably see substitutions in technology, as current methods find their limits, but so to will any subsequent technology. There is always a physical limit as to what can be acheived with any technology
You persist in looking foolish. I'll persist in pointing out.
You still need to provide any evidence as to how we can have infinite economic growth on a finite planet. You haven't addressed how we get around the physical limits that all technology faces.
Try to remember that the energy charts I put up are illustrative.
You quoted:
The Earth has a cross section of about 127,400,000 km2, which means the total solar power intercepted by the Earth is about 1.7 x 1017 W. By comparison, the capacity of all the electric power generation stations in the world is about 3.7 terawatts (TW), or 3.7 x 1012 watts.
Thus, the Sun delivers nearly 46,000 times more energy than the world's electric power consumption.
174 petawatts (PW) hit the Earth, (which I think is what you are saying). However, much of that is reflected back to space before it even reaches the earth, so the only way to actually extract every last bit of energy is a space based solar power plant, and beam the energy to Earth (not worth it, even leaving aside the impracticalities).
According to this:
http://www.sandia.gov/~jytsao/Solar FAQs.pdf
We have a potential of 58,300 TW for solar electric, or 60,700 TW for solar fuel both on land.
Even leaving aside inefficiencies that I haven't included, we would still need copious amounts of fisson/fusion/some other unknown technology in the future to meet our growing energy demand, and the laws of thermodynamics will not go away. We will cook the Earth at some point if the economy grows at a fixed average % over time owing to exponential growth (see charts in previous posts). The exact numbers do not really matter, its the fact that its a % growth that will ultimately push us to this limiting factor on a finite planet. The charts use 2.3% energy growth, but it could be 5% or 1%, the result would be the same, just over a different time frame. Infact a previous post quoted 2% growth from a different source, and produced a similar result of 3C heating on a similar timescale that the chart predicts.
These scales of growth are not currently seen as our economy is not big enough, and so we struggle to envision this impact, but if we continue at the same rate, we will reach that point at some point owing to simple maths.
Its simply a limit to growth, and actually, I think its a positive thing, as it could bring us to consider what matters beyond such things as GDP, and the economy. If we were to reach that limit (or stop growing before that), we could develop in some other way, such as increase our knowledge, health, or well being. Compared to us just getting more wealthy for the sake of it (once the world population has been pulled out of poverty), I'd say that's a good thing.
But to put the breaks on growth at some point, in a postive way, would take planning, and a change in culture, which won't be easy. It would be worth it though.