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WTC7 and the girder walk-off between column 79 and 44

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Seeing as Debate is over - Tony's claim has Failed - This post is for the record.

Given that the recent bit of Tony's untruthful denialism is past let me place on record exactly what I counter claimed and demonstrated to be fact. My target was precisely defined and deliberately limited despite Tony's efforts at misrepresenting my position.

First I recognised:
1) that Tony's immediate intention was to claim that NIST was in error, specifically that "the NIST explanation [of walk-off] was impossible";
2) That he had in mind a different objective related to proving CD at WTC; AND
3) that he was attempting to set up the false dichotomy of "If you cannot prove me wrong I must be right".

What I showed - all thoroughly detailed through this thread - was that Tony had not sustained his claim that "the NIST explanation was impossible". Tony's claim fails and that is still the current status - "Claim Failed".

Put simply my counter was not to show that Tony was wrong rather to show that he had not met his burden of proof to show that he was right. An obvious if somewhat subtle distinction. Tony's claim fails because he has not shown that it is correct.

My support of my counter claim based on these facts which are verified at various points through this thread:
A) "the NIST explanation is impossible" was Tony's claim;
B) THEREFORE it was and remains Tony's "burden of proof" to make out his claim;
C) Conversely it was not my burden of proof to demonstrate the reverse i.e. that the NIST explanation was possible. And I steadfastly refused to do so because:
(i) I detest truther logical trickery specifically the truther tricks of "reverse burden of proof" and "false dichotomy" which Tony was attempting in this thread; AND
(ii) Because Tony was not prepared to defend his claim.
D) I identified that Tony's claim was flawed in two technical areas:
(i) He was not taking into account all the factors which would affect the "girder walk-off" mechanism; AND
(ii) He had made an assumption that the end conditions for the Girder spanning Col79 to Col44 were unchanged and has not shown why that assumption was valid.
E) In addition his claim was flawed in two areas of false debate procedure:
(i) His multiple attempts to "reverse burden of proof"; AND
(ii) His overall tactic of constructing a "false dichotomy".

I recognised two other aspects viz:
(i) that other members were variously demonstrating that Tony was in error at the level of technical details; AND
(ii) I declined multiple times to be drawn into "reversed burden of proof". For example it is not for me opposing Tony to explain what are all the factors affecting the walk-off. It is Tony's claim and his responsibility to support his claim - not my responsibility to put up a counter claim or even to show his errors in technical details.

AND Tony's claim fails if it has a single missed factor under D(i) OR if he does not support his assumption at D(ii) OR if he relies on the false dichotomy of E(ii). And he had failures in all three areas. So his claim fails - at least three times over but once failed it is failed. However specifically I haven't proved him wrong. Such was not my intention at this stage. But I have shown that he has not "made out" his claim. So the claim fails.

So let's see how Tony's recent bit of mendacity stands up:
All you and people like Ozeco41 seem to do is assert things1. I haven't seen you2 put together a single legitimate analysis3 that held up to criticism4 and bore out what you were trying to say5.

The reality is the numbers show the NIST analysis is seriously flawed6, and all you want to do is say "so what there are many other things that could have taken down WTC 7". That is not the point7. The point is the official analysis is not correct8 and needs to be redone9.

You could try to help NIST if you think you really have a way it could have come down naturally that could be proven with analysis and testing that they didn't consider10. I haven't seen you show any way that could happen yet11, but you sure are trying hard12. You could also write a paper on what you think the theory should be13. You know how you are always quick to tell others to do that14, which I have15. But we know you haven't even though your recent theories are not those of NIST16.

1 I will let tfk speak for himself. Tony's statement is false - I have supported my counter claims with objective facts and reasoning. The irony of the "All you...seem to do is assert" will not be lost on readers. "Asserting" has been Tony's sole method of response.
2 He must not have been looking;
3 They are all there in the thread - summary available if anyone wants it :) ;
4 Tony hasn't offered any reasoned criticism for it to "hold up to";
5 I wasn't "trying to say" - I said it with explicit clarity;
6 Unsupported assertion from the person who has the gall to falsely accuse others of "All you...seem to do is assert";
7 HE GOT ONE RIGHT. But you can bet he doesn't know why? (Hint - it's because he doesn't recognise the point and gets it wrong himself. :rolleyes:)
8 He hasn't shown where it is wrong or how significant the alleged errors to support the next point>>
9 ...why are these errors, if there are any, sufficient to warrant the call for "redone". See Oysteins explicit comments on these two.
10 Evasion! My objective was show that Tony's claim failed. Not to help NIST.
11 More evasion. It's not my objective.
12 Not me - I made no effort at all into assisting NIST with alleged shortcomings.
13 Why?
14 Not me. I do not use the debating ploy of "why don't you write a paper?" I have strong reservations about the "pedestal" that papers are put on in discussions here. So I don't play that game.
15 I know. I have shown the fundamental errors in three of them - Engineering Reality back in 2007, "Missing Jolt' and another one whose ntitle eludes my memory. All seriously flawed and in the same way.
16 Another "reversal" trick. We are discussing your real failures not any alleged shortcomings of mine.

That should do - and I could probably have picked at least a couple more.

So the situation is unchanged - I have demonstrated that Tony's claim "the NIST explanation is impossible" has failed and given clear reasons why. For his part Tony has not attempted to counter other than by "bold assertions". So it stays "failed". ;)
 
Seeing as Debate is over - Tony's claim has Failed - This post is for the record.
...
So the situation is unchanged - I have demonstrated that Tony's claim "the NIST explanation is impossible" has failed and given clear reasons why. For his part Tony has not attempted to counter other than by "bold assertions". So it stays "failed". ;)

# oysteinbookmark
As a nice and clean and final example summary for this kind of reasoned rebuttal.
 
# oysteinbookmark
As a nice and clean and final example summary for this kind of reasoned rebuttal.
thumbup.gif
Thank you.

It was fun whilst it lasted. Lets see if we can find another and more mentally stimulating challenge. My bit of fun on the "Anologies" [sic] thread is a possibility but no takers to disagree so far.... :(



Meanwhile
popcorn.gif
 
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BTW, as a learning experience, this is the way that Tony's claims should have been presented, and this discussion should have progressed.

(IMHO, of course..)

1. Tony: "I've done a simplified FEA that suggests that there wasn't enough movement of the c79 - c44 girder for it to have fallen off of its seat, as NIST claimed."

2. JREFer 1: Why don't you post the details of your model so we can tell what you did.

3. Tony: "Sure. Here they are.
Here's a (hand sketch / CAD drawing) showing the components that I'll be including. (Drawing provided)
Here are the constraints: (Description provided)
Here are the temperatures: (Description provided)
Here are the forces and where they are applied: (Description provided)
I chose to use (element type 1) type of element for these parts, and (element type 2) for those parts, and …: (Description provided)
I chose (element type 1) because it captures (X details) …
I chose (element type 2) because it captures (Y details) …
When I run the analysis, I get only this amount of travel out of the girder end, which isn't enough to push it off of its seat."

4. JREFer 2: "Did you use linear or non-linear analysis?
JREFer 3: "From your drawing, I don't see (these components).
JREFer 4: "I don't think that (element type X) is the best choice for (part Y) because it doesn't allow (whatever)."
JREFer 5: "Have you considered the effect on the position of c79 of motion of all the other components around the ones you've shown?"

5. Tony: "JREFer 2: For a 1st round I used linear analysis. I'll turn on non-linear deformations & see how it affects the outcome."
Tony: "JREFer 3: I chose to eliminate those components in the interests of model run time & complexity. I've captured their behavior (as best I could) in these (constraints, assumptions). Here is my rationale for each of those. (explanation provided.)
Tony: "JREFer 4: Yeah, it has those limitations, but (discussion ensues …)"
Tony: "JREFer 5: ok, let's discuss what you think are the significant sources of this motion. Then I'll try to include the ones that we agree are most significant. You've got to recognize, tho, that I don't have access to a supercomputer cluster, so we're gonna have to make a bunch of simplifications."

(Lots of discussion ensue.)

People ask for things that are reasonable.
Tony successively adjusts his model to include those things.

People ask for things that are unreasonable.
Tony discusses with them why he thinks those things are unreasonable.
JREFers jump in on both sides.

People ask for things that are unknowable.
Tony: "Well, I don't think that anyone knows enough to make a reasonable guess on that. So I'll produce a simple model that will bracket likely ranges of that effect. A sensitivity analysis of this particular effect, just like NIST did several times in their report.

A couple of days / weeks / months later …
Tony: OK here's what I found: This is insignificant because … (explanation provided).
That is significant, but we're gonna have to get clever to make reasonable assumption. Here's what I think is reasonable: (description provided).

More discussion ensues.
Model gets changed, improved, etc.
Results along the way are provided.
Discussions about significant effects vs. insignificant effects are hotly debated.

At the end of this discussion:
Tony: OK, JREFers (1, 4 & 9) think that this is wrong, but I disagree. And I explained my POV above here.
JREFers (2, 4 & 8) think that this is poorly represented. Again, I disagree & have stated my rationale for my POV here.

JREFer 28: "Well, what are you going to do about (these assumptions)?"

Tony: I thought that I'd write to NIST & see if I can find out what assumptions the guys who did NIST's models used.

Later: Tony: "OK, here's what I found out… Here's what I think they did right: … Here's what I think they did wrong…

etc. etc. etc.

Tony: "Well, ultimately it's my model & I'm the final arbiter. So, to those who think I've not addressed some significant issue, we'll agree to disagree. Here are the assumptions that I've made, & I've stated clearly why I think that they are reasonable. If you want to produce a model that includes those effects, be my guest & do it yourself. BTW, to help you not have to reinvent the wheel, I'll send you what I've generated thus far & you can go from there."

"So, in conclusion, given the limitations & assumptions & simplifications that I've described, my model still doesn't provide sufficient motion for walk off & suggests that NIST was wrong about that."

JREFer 28: "Well, what are you going to do now?"

Tony: "First thing is that I'm going to bring this whole thing to some structural engineers that I've talked to before. I'll get their comments & I promise that I'll faithfully report back here what they say."

[model adjustment ensues]

Tony: "Still not enough travel."

JREFer 37: "What now?"

Tony: "Well, I could send my results to NIST & ask them to comment. Or I could write up everything that I've done & submit it (along with all the Structural Engineers' comments) to JoM & see if they'll publish it. Or maybe I'll just do nothing with it & leave it out there for someone to dispute.

But, at the end of the day, here's what I've got:

I've produced a model that, subject to the assumptions & simplifications listed above, suggests that there wasn't enough motion of the girder to walk off of its seat.

i think that my model has gone thru sufficient independent, competent review to be robust.

As I've shown, I've made a bona fide, honest effort to get NIST to address my issues, and these are the issues that remain unresolved: (description provided).

And therefore, while I certainly can not say that my simplified model proves NIST's far more elaborate model wrong, I think that there are weaknesses in NIST's explanation that should be addressed & explanations provided. I've submitted a request for a public explanation of these issues."

___

All of the above would have been COMPLETELY reasonable, professional & respectful of all involved.

Contrast this to what Tony has actually done.

Step 1: "I've proven that NIST's failure mode is impossible & that they are all liars & frauds."

Step 3: Never done.

Repeat statement in Step 1 over & over & over & over again.

That approach has been COMPLETELY unreasonable, unprofessional & disrespectful of all involved.

JMO.

tom
 
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You obviously cared enough to attempt an answer in some way, while simultaneously showing your equally obvious inability to back up your assertion. It isn't hard to tell here who has the qualifications to discuss the issue, and it certainly isn't anonymous posters who make silly assertions like you have here.

In fact, I think TFK may have helped generate a new name for himself and others like you. You really should be known as "the Asserters".


What assertion? You are the one making assertions, not I.
And I'm a professional mech engineer so certainly as qualified as you are but not nearly as qualified as those on NIST.....the difference being that I know my limitations and you, do not. I wasn't answering your claims, others have done so repeatedly with making a dent in your dogma, I was merely pointing out that you are irrelevant.
 
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Oystein, it has clearly been shown that the collapse initiation mechanism proposed in the NIST report for WTC 7, of a lateral walk-off of the girder between columns 44 and 79 at floor 13, is an impossible situation and could not have occurred. It is also clear that those who don't want to recognize this here have no basis for what they are saying.

repeating a lie doesn't make it the truth. In fact your statement confirms you are also a fool as only a fool would suggest something in such an incredibly complex situation is "impossible"........a real engineer would at best say it was "unlikely". You are like the fools who said the Titanic was unsinkable.....the engineers never made such a claim.
 
In fact, I think TFK may have helped generate a new name for himself and others like you. You really should be known as "the Asserters".

Cool.

Does this mean that we get our own "Emma Peels"?

I gotta tell ya, Tony, it's gonna be tough to choose between:

Diana
imgres
diana-rigg-as-emma-peel.jpg


and Uma
4409246_std.jpg

imgres
 
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I gotta tell ya, Tony, it's gonna be tough to choose between:

Diana and Uma

Why choose -- why not both?





I'll be in Dave's bunk --it's been more the 15 minutes, he's done with it by now...
 
Why choose -- why not both?





I'll be in Dave's bunk --it's been more the 15 minutes, he's done with it by now...

If I remember correctly those two are "Women" and we were supposed to chase them. Cannot remember what happened when you got one.....

...like the dog which chases cars .... couldn't drive if it did catch one


:rolleyes:
 
If I remember correctly those two are "Women" and we were supposed to chase them. Cannot remember what happened when you got one.....

...like the dog which chases cars .... couldn't drive if it did catch one


:rolleyes:

I can furnish you with some schematics -- the website only bills $4.99 / minute.
 
You obviously cared enough to attempt an answer in some way, while simultaneously showing your equally obvious inability to back up your assertion. It isn't hard to tell here who has the qualifications to discuss the issue, and it certainly isn't anonymous posters who make silly assertions like you have here.

In fact, I think TFK may have helped generate a new name for himself and others like you. You really should be known as "the Asserters".


Well, all you have is a spread sheet showing temp vs elongation.


You really should be known as "Tony 'the spreadsheet' Szamboti.
 
Ah, so you'll be need the practical course with the ... hands on lab. I'll check Lexie's schedule and be in contact.
I'd be risking a coronary...


...except as we all know, engineer's don't have hearts.

A friend of mine was Professor of Engineering at the University in the city where I was City Engineer. (University of New England in Armidale NSW.) He had to go into hospital for heart valve surgery. He put a formal note on his office door explaining his coming absence. After some discussion with me the notice was changed to read (IIRC):

"In workshop for 2 weeks - overhaul of main pump - rewashering suction valve!"

(I never did check if the "Mitral" is the valve on the suction side of the pump. :blush: )
 
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I'd be risking a coronary...


...except as we all know, engineer's don't have hearts.

A friend of mine was Professor of Engineering at the University in the city where I was City Engineer. (University of New England in Armidale NSW.) He had to go into hospital for heart valve surgery. He put a formal note on his office door explaining his coming absence. After some discussion with me the notice was changed to read (IIRC):

"In workshop for 2 weeks - overhaul of main pump - rewashering suction valve!"

(I never did check if the "Mitral" is the valve on the suction side of the pump. :blush: )
I was writing a post about modifying her TENS box to be a defib, discussing her qualifications to wear the little nurse outfit and to help you answer your question about suction, but we're already off topic, and if Darat sees this exchange...

Better that it have a happy ending...
 
I'd be risking a coronary...


...except as we all know, engineer's don't have hearts.

A friend of mine was Professor of Engineering at the University in the city where I was City Engineer. (University of New England in Armidale NSW.) He had to go into hospital for heart valve surgery. He put a formal note on his office door explaining his coming absence. After some discussion with me the notice was changed to read (IIRC):

"In workshop for 2 weeks - overhaul of main pump - rewashering suction valve!"

(I never did check if the "Mitral" is the valve on the suction side of the pump. :blush: )
[/derail] Me first experience with engineers was similar... they can have very rigid requirements for design approval. My boss is a bit of the same, but I can't complain... he's been a great mentor on the job so far.

[/derail

Anyway, I've been reading the thread off and on... Still find the technical discussions interesting and can appreciate some people's (you know who you are) patience in addressing them. I'm too pooped out from seeing the topic over and over to do the routine anymore.
 
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