Will North Korea collapse in the next 4 years?

[portlandatheist]

I admit that I'm totally fascinated by North Korea. It boggles my mind that such a place even exists. The unnecessary human tragedy also boggles the mind and I have a very intense hope to see this tragedy end in my lifetime. With the transition of power to Kim Jung-Eun, this reality is likely to happen sooner or later. Kim Jung Sung accomplished many things, was a prolific writer, was famous and charismatic. Kim Jung-Eun is young, unaccomplished, inexperienced, and relatively unknown to North Koreans and the cult of personality propaganda machine has its work laid out for them.
Some of the things that have recently happened in NK that hint at change are the murders of four officials in Cheogjin and anti regime flyers being distrusted in the same town.
My vote is for a coup but I think it could play out many other ways but I'm confident collapse is going to happen

 

[angrysoba]

Who is Kim Jung Sung and was this person really a "prolific writer"?

I know that Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il both had lots of works attributed to them but I think the propaganda people are busy churning out books "by Kim Jong-Eun" as well.

The DPRK's inevitable collapse has been talked about since about 1989 and somehow it still manages to keep plugging along.

With China getting stronger the North Koreans may continue to find the subsidies it needs to keep everyone just on the brink of survival and with too little energy to revolt.

But there is an important question re: North Korea and that is "what would collapse actually look like in this case?"

 

[SezMe]

With China getting stronger the North Koreans may continue to find the subsidies it needs to keep everyone just on the brink of survival and with too little energy to revolt.

This is important. China does not want a western-style democracy right across the border. I think they'll keep a prop under NK just to have them as a buffer to South Korea and the rest of the Asian Tiger.

 

[Polaris]

Voted coup.

If there are any grassroots civil opposition groups in North Korea they're better hidden than Pat Robertson's sense of decency, and no external power wants to anger China enough to even think of a shooting war. The only real threat to Kim Jong-Doofus is probably someone he trusts most - a kingmaker, someone with connections who isn't a complete lackey. There would have to be at least one person like that in Pyongyang.

 

[Ziggurat]

This is important. China does not want a western-style democracy right across the border.

That's not going to happen in our lifetime regardless. The civic institutions of North Korea have been far too corrupted to make western democracy a reality, even if the South Koreans were to nominally take over. The best one could hope for, I think, is a Russian-style "democratic" authoritarianism, and China would be fine with that as long as it was allied with them. What China fears most, I think is refugees.

I think they'll keep a prop under NK just to have them as a buffer to South Korea and the rest of the Asian Tiger.

I'm not sure if it's a buffer so much as a thorn to stick in our side.

 

[Toontown]

North Korea already collapsed, long ago. Never was a real country. Now it is being kept on life support by China, nominally 'alive' in a sick joke kind of way.

Think of it as a nearly dead guy with a Kalashnikov and a bandolier of grenades. Little to win. Nothing to lose. More of communism's undead spawn.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3_S-YaRLa8

 

[McHrozni]

I voted no, business as usual. Alternatively if there is a revolt, I expect the Chinese to help put it down.

McHrozni

 

[Humes fork]

Voted business as usual. The Chinese will prop up the North Korean regime as long as they percieve it to be in their interest, and they percieve it to be better than any other option. The North Korean aristocracy (composed of, from what I understand, generals and party-tops) will also prefer the status quo as long as they think it would benefit them the most.

In fact, China, the US and Japan would prefer sticking to the status quo due to fear of what may come otherwise. The Chinese fear a new North Korean regime would be US-friendly, the US fears it would be China-friendly, and Japan fears the prospect of a united Korea to compete with them. The Chinese don't want American-friendly governments at their doorstep, and the Americans don't want to lose influence in the region. In fact, I don't think even South Korea could realistically put up with any other than the status quo. A reunification (which both profess to want) would be enormously costly, the divide between the two Koreas is much bigger than the divide between the two Germanys.

I admit that I'm totally fascinated by North Korea. It boggles my mind that such a place even exists.

If you play any of the Civilization games, you can create your own North Korea!

I agree that it is fascinating. A peculiar mix between Marxism and the most hierarchial Confucianism managed by what is essentially a monarchial dynasty.

 

[angrysoba]

and Japan fears the prospect of a united Korea to compete with them.

I don't think this is true because:

a) Japan really thinks North Korea is a dangerous rogue state which conducts terrorism, nuclear proliferation, some organized crime within Japan and has threatened Japan with missile flyovers, abducted its citizens and is an all-round bad neighbour.

b) The re-unification is more likely to be a drain on a South Korea which is probably far more competitive on its own than as a unified Korea.

Certainly most Japanese that I know have no problem with a unified Korea. It may be that you are talking of Japanese state policy although I expect that ostensible state policy is for peaceful re-unification of the peninsula. Where do you get the impression that Japan opposes a unified Korea?

 

[Wolfman]

1) The idea that China 'fears' a democracy next door is stupid. The only thing they are concerned about are countries that attempt to interfere in their own government and politics. A democracy that left them alone, or built a friendly relationship with them, would be welcome; an autocracy that presented a threat to them would be resisted.

2) North Korea represents a significant threat to China; they have nukes, and a stated willingness to start a nuclear war that could have a serious negative impact on China. 20 years ago, China's support for North Korea was a 'brothers-in-arms' kind of thing; today, it's more along the lines of "we're the only people with a close enough relationship to keep these crazy ****ers in line, let's try not to throw that away".

3) China would welcome a revolution or war that resulted in more stability in N. Korea, so long as it didn't have too much of a negative impact on China. Whether that resulted in democracy or another dictatorship would be largely irrelevant to China.

4) The only scenario in which China would be likely to get involved militarily would be one of a war between North and South Korea in which the U.S. played a major role. However, that seems unlikely...South Korea has more than enough power to wage war, any role by the U.S. would be a fairly minimal support role at best, one which China would protest, but do nothing about.

My own vote?

I personally believe that there's a major behind-the-scenes power struggle going on in North Korea now. Unlike Dad and Granddad, Kim Jung-Eun has had little opportunity to develop an actual powerbase, and is largely dependent on (and controlled by) his aunt and uncle and a few key military figures. They are using him as a figure-head to ensure their own power and prosperity.

What I'd see happening is other military leaders launching an coup d'etat. It would most likely be done in the name of "freeing the North Korean people", and would include disclosures of the massive corruption and lies of the current gov't. Quite possibly, it would be quietly supported by China, providing weapons and logistical support. The end result would be another autocracy, but one at least less repressive (and more stable) than the current one (in that I find it hard to think of how they could get worse).

 

[angrysoba]

1) The idea that China 'fears' a democracy next door is stupid. The only thing they are concerned about are countries that attempt to interfere in their own government and politics. A democracy that left them alone, or built a friendly relationship with them, would be welcome; an autocracy that presented a threat to them would be resisted.

I agree that it is not a democratic state that they fear but one that doesn't interfere. I don't think China considers North Korea a threat though. It is a de facto ally even if the North Korean government pretends it has never had nor needed help from China.

2) North Korea represents a significant threat to China; they have nukes, and a stated willingness to start a nuclear war that could have a serious negative impact on China. 20 years ago, China's support for North Korea was a 'brothers-in-arms' kind of thing; today, it's more along the lines of "we're the only people with a close enough relationship to keep these crazy ****ers in line, let's try not to throw that away".

I think they also provide necessary fuel supplies and food (which other countries not aligned to North Korea do too: Japan and the US for a start).

3) China would welcome a revolution or war that resulted in more stability in N. Korea, so long as it didn't have too much of a negative impact on China. Whether that resulted in democracy or another dictatorship would be largely irrelevant to China.

I don't see how a revolution or war would be in the interests of stability. Even at the best of times that is a massive gamble and the history of such things don't suggest that stability quickly follows. A destablizing war or revolution is probably one of the last things they want. I think the possibility of a lot of refugess is a big one in that case.

4) The only scenario in which China would be likely to get involved militarily would be one of a war between North and South Korea in which the U.S. played a major role. However, that seems unlikely...South Korea has more than enough power to wage war, any role by the U.S. would be a fairly minimal support role at best, one which China would protest, but do nothing about.

I wouldn't like to bet on the outcome of a war between North and South Korea and I wouldn't bet on a "minimal support role" for the US. Why do you suppose these two things?

My own vote?

I personally believe that there's a major behind-the-scenes power struggle going on in North Korea now. Unlike Dad and Granddad, Kim Jung-Eun has had little opportunity to develop an actual powerbase, and is largely dependent on (and controlled by) his aunt and uncle and a few key military figures. They are using him as a figure-head to ensure their own power and prosperity.

What I'd see happening is other military leaders launching an coup d'etat. It would most likely be done in the name of "freeing the North Korean people", and would include disclosures of the massive corruption and lies of the current gov't. Quite possibly, it would be quietly supported by China, providing weapons and logistical support. The end result would be another autocracy, but one at least less repressive (and more stable) than the current one (in that I find it hard to think of how they could get worse).

I think if Kim Jong-Eun rides out the initial doubts and he can portray himself as some military leader and heir to his father and grandfather then he won't be easily deposed. Why would anyone with the power to depose him do so given that they have so much more to lose if they can't rally support from the general ruling population?

 

[Wolfman]

I agree that it is not a democratic state that they fear but one that doesn't interfere. I don't think China considers North Korea a threat though. It is a de facto ally even if the North Korean government pretends it has never had nor needed help from China.

China doesn't consider North Korea a direct threat to China. They do consider it one of the greatest threats to stability in the region, including the threat of a nuclear war that, if it happened, would inevitably have a massively negative impact on China.

I think they also provide necessary fuel supplies and food (which other countries not aligned to North Korea do too: Japan and the US for a start).

Actually, they've taken on numerous humanitarian roles. Motivations for that are mixed. Part of it is a result of pressure from the international community. Part of it is to try to prevent the influx of illegal immigrants from North Korea. And part of it, who knows, could actually be out of legitimate concern for the conditions of the North Korean people.

I don't see how a revolution or war would be in the interests of stability. Even at the best of times that is a massive gamble and the history of such things don't suggest that stability quickly follows. A destablizing war or revolution is probably one of the last things they want. I think the possibility of a lot of refugess is a big one in that case.

Please note that I didn't say a war would result in greater stability; only that China would welcome greater stability, and if a war/revolution brought that about, they wouldn't be opposed to it. However, from China's perspective (for example), a military coup that overthrew the current leadership, and replaced it with a more rational one (ie. one that didn't threaten nuclear war, and provided better for the people of the country) would be a very good thing.

You see to suffer under the impression that China is blind to how bat-**** crazy the leadership of North Korea is, or how much of a threat it represents to the rest of Asia (and potentially other parts of the world). North Korea is, in fact, one of their biggest foreign policy focuses, and most of their energy is focuses on "let's keep these crazy ****ers from starting a nuclear war". If you check out recent political meetings between China and North Korea, you'll see that they consist of nothing more than a very thin veneer of 'friendship'; but under that is a very great deal of distrust and paranoia (on both sides).

I wouldn't like to bet on the outcome of a war between North and South Korea and I wouldn't bet on a "minimal support role" for the US. Why do you suppose these two things?

North Korea's only two significant advantages are its nukes, and its massive standing army. The U.S. role would be to shoot down any nuclear attacks (a role with which China would not have any major objections); and the standing army is largely powerless in the face of South Korea's significantly more advanced army. It wouldn't be an overnight victory...but with American warships shooting down North Korean planes and missiles, South Korea would win.

However, as I stated, I consider this to be a much less likely scenario (at least in the near future) than I do a military coup from the inside.

I think if Kim Jong-Eun rides out the initial doubts and he can portray himself as some military leader and heir to his father and grandfather then he won't be easily deposed. Why would anyone with the power to depose him do so given that they have so much more to lose if they can't rally support from the general ruling population?

"Rides out the initial doubts"? There are very few 'doubts' from the common people, they've been trained and conditioned to accept whatever the propaganda machine tells them. It doesn't matter how he "portrays" himself...nor does he really have any control over it. It is the vast military/political machine that controls how he's perceived. So long as he's useful to them as a figurehead, they'll build him up. But if he were ever to show signs of independence, that same propaganda machine could destroy him. He simply does not have the power, control, or experience that his father or grandfather did; he's a puppet for others who are taking advantage of this situation for their own benefit.

Yeah, the day could come -- a decade or more later -- when he enjoyed enough power, and had the experience to use it, to wrest control for himself...but quite frankly, I'd predict that he'll be dead before he reaches that point. Either killed and replaced by another figurehead, or more likely removed in a military coup.

 

[angrysoba]

"Rides out the initial doubts"? There are very few 'doubts' from the common people, they've been trained and conditioned to accept whatever the propaganda machine tells them. It doesn't matter how he "portrays" himself...nor does he really have any control over it. It is the vast military/political machine that controls how he's perceived. So long as he's useful to them as a figurehead, they'll build him up. But if he were ever to show signs of independence, that same propaganda machine could destroy him. He simply does not have the power, control, or experience that his father or grandfather did; he's a puppet for others who are taking advantage of this situation for their own benefit.

Yeah, the day could come -- a decade or more later -- when he enjoyed enough power, and had the experience to use it, to wrest control for himself...but quite frankly, I'd predict that he'll be dead before he reaches that point. Either killed and replaced by another figurehead, or more likely removed in a military coup.

The "initial doubts" are "Who the Hell is that guy?" Whatever they have been conditioned to accept the vast bulk of people have not grown up with him and therefore he is not going to have the same initial acceptance as the Kim pere and Kim grandpere did.

This is simply a matter of common sense.

That said, Kim Jong-Eun does have a pedigree which almost no one else in North Korea can match and he has been groomed for the role of leadership.

The doubts are also how well he can impress the military leadership and old generals who must also be wondering who this squirt is. If he hasn't the authority, and we don't know that he does or he doesn't (though, by looking at him, what do you think?), then we can clearly imagine there will be doubts that he can fulfill the role that he needs to perform to either retain or properly ascend to power.

Anyway, I very much doubt the propaganda machine is going to tear him down. He'll probably have to accidentally and brutally stab himself to death while shaving if he is going to be deposed.

 

[Wolfman]

The doubts are also how well he can impress the military leadership and old generals who must also be wondering who this squirt is. If he hasn't the authority, and we don't know that he does or he doesn't (though, by looking at him, what do you think?), then we can clearly imagine there will be doubts that he can fulfill the role that he needs to perform to either retain or properly ascend to power.

Anyway, I very much doubt the propaganda machine is going to tear him down. He'll probably have to accidentally and brutally stab himself to death while shaving if he is going to be deposed.

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that the what the people think about him has anything to do with his power. He doesn't derive his power from the people; he derives his power from the massive propaganda and military machine that backs him. He is entirely dependent on them for his position, his public perception, and anything else. If he even tries to assert independence of any kind, that same propaganda machine will remove him, and release a bunch of propaganda about the "tragic death of their beloved leader", and then replace him with another figurehead.

In truth, he's as much a prisoner of the military as any of his people are (albeit a prisoner who, if he plays his role well, will live a very comfortable life); nothing he does or says is revealed to the public unless the military leadership first decides that it should be.

He is entirely lacking in the knowledge, experience, or power to control that propaganda machine himself. It is his aunt and uncle who have that power. It should be noted that the uncle was twice punished in the past for seeking greater power for himself, and there's hardly any reason to believe that his aspirations don't continue. His political and military connections and savvy far, far outstrip those of his young, inexperienced nephew. There's a very deliberate reason why both he and his wife make a very big deal out of showing themselves in public with Kim Jung-Eun, holding hands with each other -- because it cements their power. They're the ones telling him what to do. They're the ones shaping his public perception. They're the ones in control. And there is no way on earth that, having achieved this power, they're later going to give it up and turn it over to their nephew. He'll stay in power so long as he suits their purposes. If he no longer suits their purposes...I'm sure the uncle in particular will have no qualms about gaining revenge for the punishments that Kim Jung-Eun's father heaped on him in the past.

And this is why I consider a military coup d'etat to be the most likely result...because other military leaders who enjoyed greater power and privilege under the previous regime are being shunted aside and left on the sidelines. They know for a fact that they are no longer following the 'divinely appointed leader'; things are now controlled by the uncle and aunt. Those who benefit from the new arrangement will support them; those who are hurt by it will more than likely seek to bring about violent change.

 

[Muldur]

But there is an important question re: North Korea and that is "what would collapse actually look like in this case?"

A second Korean war, basically, followed by an intervention by China when NK gets it's ass kicked where they install an openly puppet regime to "fix things'.

 

[Wolfman]

A second Korean war, basically, followed by an intervention by China when NK gets it's ass kicked where they install an openly puppet regime to "fix things'.

Which is also why I'd see them supporting a military coup against the current leadership...they'd far prefer a dictatorship that is beholden to or dependent on them, than the current one which is just about as unpredictable and dangerous as it could be.

 

[Muldur]

Which is also why I'd see them supporting a military coup against the current leadership...they'd far prefer a dictatorship that is beholden to or dependent on them, than the current one which is just about as unpredictable and dangerous as it could be.

As "unpredictable and dangerous" as the current situation is, it serves Chinese interests by keeping most of the West's military attention in Asia focused away from themselves. NK is a useful catspaw, regardless of how bat-crap crazy they are, so long as that crazy is controlled and controllable. They don't want to have to openly install a puppet government if they can avoid it because they would then lose the cover that the current regime provides (wittingly or otherwise).

 

[Wolfman]

As "unpredictable and dangerous" as the current situation is, it serves Chinese interests by keeping most of the West's military attention in Asia focused away from themselves. NK is a useful catspaw, regardless of how bat-crap crazy they are, so long as that crazy is controlled and controllable. They don't want to have to openly install a puppet government if they can avoid it because they would then lose the cover that the current regime provides (wittingly or otherwise).

That's just it. It's not perceived as either controlled, or controllable. Not by the Chinese, not by anyone else particularly familiar with that gov't. Particularly not now that there's an inexperienced 'leader' supposedly in charge. Worries were rife as soon as he took over that North Korea would launch a war on South Korea simply to unite the people behind their new leader...is that kind of worry what you'd call "controlled or controllable"?

Things are even less predictable now. Almost nothing is known about Kim Jong-Eun. Little is known about his aunt and uncle, other than that they seem to be the ones pulling the strings. Their motivations and plans are guesswork at best. At least with the previous leadership you could make some kind of guess based on past behavior...now, we don't even have that metric to guide us.

I'm sorry...but every indication that I see in China, from both the leadership and the common people, is that they are as paranoid and worried about North Korea's leadership as anyone else. A harmless regime that draws attention from China...great. A regime that threatens to throw the region into nuclear war...not so great.

 

[McHrozni]

North Korea's only two significant advantages are its nukes, and its massive standing army. The U.S. role would be to shoot down any nuclear attacks (a role with which China would not have any major objections); and the standing army is largely powerless in the face of South Korea's significantly more advanced army. It wouldn't be an overnight victory...but with American warships shooting down North Korean planes and missiles, South Korea would win.

Shooting down North Korean planes seems redundant. Most if not all of their planes are decades old, probably poorly maintained, and certainly with very poorly trained pilots due to fuel shortages. They'd fall out of the sky on their own for the most part, and those that wouldn't would be shot down by South Koreas' air force.

A war would still be extremely destructive for South Korea without major US involvement though. Everything else aside, North Korea has a large number of guns trained at Seoul, with the capacity of raining down a hundred thousand shells an hour. The guns are fortified, so the only way to take them out before they severely damage the city - which is a couple of hours at most - is WMDs or maybe a copious amount of MOABs. As far as I know South Korea has neither. Without USAF taking them out preemptively, South Korea would face major damage to their capital and millions of refugees.

I'm sorry...but every indication that I see in China, from both the leadership and the common people, is that they are as paranoid and worried about North Korea's leadership as anyone else. A harmless regime that draws attention from China...great. A regime that threatens to throw the region into nuclear war...not so great.

Would you say that China is paying the price for supporting the former that grew into latter?

McHrozni

 

[Bill Thompson]

Does anyone actually have any reason to know what they are talking about here or is this a guessing game?