Why Trump will be reelected

dudalb said:
Problem is in the US a great many of the hospitals are owned by the Health Providers ie the Insurance Companies,so they would still have to bought out.
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Why? You can still have privately run hospitals in the system I outlined, you don't have to have them all Government owned, they just get funded for patients in the same way as all the rest.
 
I'm not optimistic about ousting Trump in 2020, simply because this country has let me down time and again. But were I to develop some optimism about next November I might base it on some things like this:

1. That dude is a drug-addled mess. I'm not convinced as others claim that he's sundowning from dementia before our eyes, but something ain't right. There's no way that his impromptu "part 1 physical" was as-billed. My guess is mini-stroke or some kind of heart scare. I'm comfortable with 0.10 probability that he's not on the ballot come November because he's dead or incapacitated.
2. Should he be on the ballot and ostensibly no less healthy than today, I'd give it 0.50 probability that he debates his opponent. Bloomberg and Klobuchar I'm not sure, but Sanders, Warren, & Buttigieg would mop the floor with him on the debate stage. (If Biden is the nominee that's Trump's ticket to successful debates, and that's why I'm not convinced that Biden would perform in November as well as polls predict in matchups today.) Should Trump make some excuse for canceling debates, look for McCain/Romney-type Republicans to just stay home on Election Day.
3. Yes, Obama's economy is (by some select indicators) still going strongly, but there have been some bad things that have happened. There's a fraternity of Trump pals who've been indicted from Mueller investigation and the dude was IMPEACHED. Behind assassinated and indicted in impeachment, an acquittal on impeachment is the 3rd worst thing that can happen to a president. A whole lotta folks who were happy that he wasn't removed from office still know darn well that he's a guilty, lying POS, and their patience for his garbage wears thin.
4. Trump's approval seems to have a ceiling ~44%. It rarely dips below 41% or gets as high as 45%. He's going to have to surpass 45% of the general vote to win.
5. Though folks in Wisconsin be high or something right now, it was a thin margin and a handful of states that got Trump the Electoral College win. Naive voters from 2016 aren't so naive anymore as to what an idiotic assclown our president is. No matter who the Democratic nominee is, there is nothing that person could do over the next few months to be as near uniformly hated as Hillary Clinton.
6. Though I never bet against the Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I also have zero confidence in Trump's ability to keep from openly committing new crimes between now and November – plus there's a decent chance his tax records will go public at some point, and I can't see how those could be anything but damaging to him.
7. I'm 0.99 on there being no pee pee tape...
 
JoeMorgue said:
*Head desk*

Nobody... cares. Nobody cares that Clinton won at the game that neither her or Trump were playing.

I am so sick of hearing about Clinton winning the popular vote.
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I care a great deal. It gives me comfort to know the majority of 2016 voters weren't stupid.
 
ChristianProgressive said:
Just so long as you get your 30 pieces of silver, eh Mead?
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I really, really, hate it when people mistake my own beliefs for the people I am talking about.


I'm voting for whatever Democrat is nominated to run against Trump. I don't want it to be Bernie or Bloomberg, but I will vote for them if they are the nominee.


Is it so inconceivable that when I say, "You won't convince many people like that...…" I am not saying, "You're wrong." When I say, "Most Americans want..." I am not saying "I want".



Well, I've been talking on the internet long enough that I know there are tons of people who can't tell the difference, but it's still irritating.
 
At the moment, I think he is the favourite - despite of pretty bad favourability levels. The economy is doing fine, there is a well oiled propaganda machine marching in lockstep headed by the Fox News, various voter suppression schemes, Russian efforts fuelling the social media etc. etc. - and most of all, a radicalized base with a blind devotion which is simply indifferent to "fake news" (or facts as they are called elsewhere). He will pretty easily get 47-50% share once the Democratic candidate is a thoroughly smeared as only the Republicans know how.

So, maybe a 60-40 favourite at the moment. Any other Republican as bad but with a better judgement would be in even much better position.
 
Meadmaker said:
I really, really, hate it when people mistake my own beliefs for the people I am talking about.


I'm voting for whatever Democrat is nominated to run against Trump. I don't want it to be Bernie or Bloomberg, but I will vote for them if they are the nominee.


Is it so inconceivable that when I say, "You won't convince many people like that...…" I am not saying, "You're wrong." When I say, "Most Americans want..." I am not saying "I want".



Well, I've been talking on the internet long enough that I know there are tons of people who can't tell the difference, but it's still irritating.
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:thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
Trebuchet said:
Why trump will be reelected

1. The Democratic Party. Around 90 years ago Will Rodgers said “I'm not a member of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” Still true.
2. The Republican Party. Absolutely monolithic in its devotion to Trump.
3. Socialism. The current front-runner is a self described socialist. But it's not just Bernie, the R's will use that scare word for any candidate. And a vast number of Americans don't understand what it is. As in the first post of this thread.
4. Toxic Bernie-Bro culture. There are not that many of the toxic ones, but they are very vocal.
5. Fox News. They have no shame and will lie about anything to help the Republican party.
6. Cheating. In addition to the ongoing Republican efforts to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, the Russians are already busy, and Trump is already working hard to cover it up.
7. Impeachment. I think it was a dumb idea. Trump will run on how exonerated he is.
8. Prejudice. Against immigrants, brown people, women, and LGBT people. A lot more folks harbor subtle prejudices than you probably think.
9. Gullibility. Trump fans willingly believe anything he says; anything they here on Fox News or Breitbart. But it's not the fans that are the problem; it's the folks in the middle who are susceptible to the lies when they get repeated often enough.
The USA is totally screwed.
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What a strange and skewed worldview.

But I hope you're right about the election results.
 
PhantomWolf said:
Why? You can still have privately run hospitals in the system I outlined, you don't have to have them all Government owned, they just get funded for patients in the same way as all the rest.
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True, you can have privately owned hospitals in a publicly funded system.

Does bring up a few issues though:

- Does BernieCare allow for that? Its all well and good to come up with ur own ideas about what health care should be like, but if the politicians are pushing something else, our own plans are irrelevant

- Who decides what the fees are? Does the government force all hospitals to accept the same payment? Or do they offer certain fees and the hospital can take it or leave it? And if the fees offered are less than the cost to run the hospital (or are less profitable than other uses of the real estate), are you prepared to see a reduction in hospital beds (with the possibility of wait lists)?
 
The Shrike said:
4. Trump's approval seems to have a ceiling ~44%. It rarely dips below 41% or gets as high as 45%. He's going to have to surpass 45% of the general vote to win.
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Not necessarily.

If enough people vote third party, 45% could be plenty.

If the electoral college works as intended, President Trump could lose the popular vote by a huge margin but still get enough electoral college votes to get the presidency.

People who don't approve of President Trump may still vote for him if the Democratic Party candidate is (or is made to look) sufficiently unappealing.

He may have 45% approval but that may translate into more than 45% of the vote if people who disapprove of him are unable to, or don't bother to, vote.
 
The Don said:
Not necessarily.

If enough people vote third party, 45% could be plenty.

If the electoral college works as intended, President Trump could lose the popular vote by a huge margin but still get enough electoral college votes to get the presidency.

People who don't approve of President Trump may still vote for him if the Democratic Party candidate is (or is made to look) sufficiently unappealing.

He may have 45% approval but that may translate into more than 45% of the vote if people who disapprove of him are unable to, or don't bother to, vote.
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I have seen demonstrations of hypothetical electoral college results that show a candidate can win the White House in a two-party race with as little as %22 of the vote.

The EC is a farce.
 
The Don said:
If enough people vote third party, 45% could be plenty.
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Of course, that's how math works. Right now at least it doesn't look like we'll have a 3rd party spoiler this go round.

I am stunned sometimes how dense the anti-Trump moneyed classes are in this country. If Bloomberg wants to defeat Trump, he should drop out of the Democratic race and pour all his money into somebody like Romney running as a conservative Independent. The conservatives who'd never vote for a Democrat would have someone pro-Life for whom to cast their vote. It might pull some "centrist" Democrats that way, but I'd imagine rank and file Republicans appalled by Trumpism would leave like rats from a sinking ship.
 
The Shrike said:
Of course, that's how math works. Right now at least it doesn't look like we'll have a 3rd party spoiler this go round.

I am stunned sometimes how dense the anti-Trump moneyed classes are in this country. If Bloomberg wants to defeat Trump, he should drop out of the Democratic race and pour all his money into somebody like Romney running as a conservative Independent. The conservatives who'd never vote for a Democrat would have someone pro-Life for whom to cast their vote. It might pull some "centrist" Democrats that way, but I'd imagine rank and file Republicans appalled by Trumpism would leave like rats from a sinking ship.
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My thoughts as well.

Perhaps throw in ads about Trump's gun control measures and stuff he's said on air.
 
Forty-six percent of voter say they will vote for the American candidate no matter who it is. Thirty-five percent of voters say they will betray their country and vote Trump. About 17 percent say they will wait and see who the Dems pick as a candidate before they decide if they will betray their country. That's not a great place for Trump to be.
 
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