milesalpha i beg to differ, was the blair witch project a conventional film? If loose change were hyped enough and it already has been on the net it wil;l sell out theatres
Yes it was a coventional film. A fictional piece intended for a general viewing audience, made solely for entertainment. It featured actors, a script, a director, and was most certainly not a documentary. It was released through a general distributor and a participant in several film festivals. Not to mention the fact that it was a horror movie, easily the least demanding genre in the movie business.
Hyped enough means little, I can name a string of films from Heaven's Gate to Ishtar that were "hyped enough" but utterly failed to gain an audience (or, once again, Snakes on the Plane, which pinned its success on the internet and got killed at the box office). Their sequel ably demonstrates this, 1/6th the boxoffice with 200 times the original budget. The fact that it's been on the net is not a plus, actually it's more of a minus.
General release movies on the subject have not made significant money. WTC brought in only 60ish million on a 70 million plus budget. United 93 brought in 30ish million on a 15 million dollar budget, but did almost nothing worldwide. (Note that budget in both cases is production only) Both films had major campaigns, major production values, and studio backing.
Thought I'd also point out the great disappointment of the year for me, Superman Returns, 270 million budget, 100 million in advertising, merchandising tie-ins, television retrospectives, major director, major stars, major special effects. Result: not quite 200 million in the domestic box-office, real questions about the validity of a sequel.
LC in a general release, yep, about the same chance as a Canadian made film in general release. I knocked around the business for 20 odd years and I cannot think of a single decent comparison.