US vs everyone else tradewars

[Puppycow]

I don't know how many US planes Chinese airlines operate but I had a look at Boeing 777 operators and over 100 of that model seem to be in use by various Chinese operators. I would expect them to begin coming out of service fairly quickly if the operators can't buy service parts.

<edit> Looks like between the biggest 3 operators (Air China, China Eastern and China Southern airlines) they have over 570 Boeings in service. Over 30% of their fleets.

They could sell those planes to airlines in other countries I assume. Or trade for equivalent AirBus planes. There's probably an exception for essential parts unless suitable substitutes can be found elsewhere.

 

[Norman Alexander]

China stops buying US aircraft, since the US can't build them anyway without China's Rare Earths.

They are already building and operating a competitive aircraft model, although proven incidents of technology theft from the USA for critical subsystems have been found.

The Comac C919 looks to be a near-copy of the Airbus A320neo, and is being planned to replace all their Boeing 737-MAX planes for Chinese operations. It uses a lot of European components, such as the LEAP engines.

It appears China will build these own narrow-body planes for internal and next-door use, and buy widebodies from Airbus and other non-US manufacturers for long-haul. It appears Boeing will be SOOL.

 

[Puppycow]

Meanwhile, Trump works his magic touch on the economy with his magic words:

US stocks and dollar slide after Trump attacks Fed chair Powell

The president amps up attack against US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

www.bbc.com

US stocks and the dollar plunged again as President Donald Trump intensified his attacks on the US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

In a social media post, Trump called on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates "pre-emptively" to help boost the economy, saying Powell had been consistently too slow to respond to economic developments.

"There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," he wrote.

So he plans to scapegoat Powell for the "slowing" of the economy caused by his own trade war.
Just a reminder: Powell was nominated to be the Fed Chair by Trump himself during his first term (it had been Janet Yellen's job before that, but Trump thought that Powell "looks the part" more than Yellen). He has been as far as I can tell, reasonably competent in the position. Trump has never been shy about blaming people who he himself put in their position. Not that Powell has any real choice here. If he cuts interest rates, that might help to temporarily boost the stock market, but it's thought to be inflationary too (it usually takes some time though, perhaps years, for low interest rates to actually lead to inflation, unlike tariffs).

 

[The Great Zaganza]

you can mess with the Supreme Court and Congress, but if you mess with the Federal Reserve, you better step down or you will be stepped down.

 

[dirtywick]

Meanwhile, Trump works his magic touch on the economy with his magic words:

US stocks and dollar slide after Trump attacks Fed chair Powell

The president amps up attack against US central bank boss calling him "a major loser" for not lowering interest rates.

www.bbc.com

So he plans to scapegoat Powell for the "slowing" of the economy caused by his own trade war.
Just a reminder: Powell was nominated to be the Fed Chair by Trump himself during his first term (it had been Janet Yellen's job before that, but Trump thought that Powell "looks the part" more than Yellen). He has been as far as I can tell, reasonably competent in the position. Trump has never been shy about blaming people who he himself put in their position. Not that Powell has any real choice here. If he cuts interest rates, that might help to temporarily boost the stock market, but it's thought to be inflationary too (it usually takes some time though, perhaps years, for low interest rates to actually lead to inflation, unlike tariffs).

dropping rates increases inflation because it makes borrowing more appealing, which means more dollars in the economy. it also makes investment in other opportunities, like the stock market, more appealing as the yields from bonds are lower.

however, the us also needs to finance it's budget. which means selling bonds to cover the deficit. low yields makes that less appealing, which means raising rates to find buyers, or alternatively the fed will need to buy bonds and lower rates. printing money to buy bonds to cover debt while cutting rates is perhaps the most inflationary thing you could do.

another thing to consider is this all happens very publicly. if much of this is spurred by foreign investors pulling out of the us and dumping bonds on the market, does this activity make it more appealing for them to want to reinvest in the us market? fire the independent fed, cut rates and flood the economy with cash, run a bunch of financial schemes on the market...

 

[Puppycow]

Weird claim made by Trump:

Japan refutes Trump's 'bowling ball test' claim for imported vehicles

US President Donald Trump has repeated his claim that Japan tests the body strength of foreign vehicles by using a bowling ball, citing this as an example of a non-tariff barrier.
But Japan's transport ministry says the country has no such national safety standards test.

During his first term in 2018, Trump alleged that in a Japanese test of foreign vehicles, a bowling ball is dropped on the hood of a car from a height of 20 feet.
The president insisted that if the hood dents a little bit, the car does not qualify. He said the way Americans are treated is "horrible."
The White House press secretary at that time said the next day that Trump was obviously "joking." A US fact-checking organization concluded the claim was false.

"Obviously joking"? Come on. This is no joke.

I wonder how the idea got in his head? Did he make it up, or was there some sort of test that was kind of like that? Like, not literally a bowling ball, but a heavy spherical object, and he's just calling it a bowling ball?

 

[Darat]

Weird claim made by Trump:

Japan refutes Trump's 'bowling ball test' claim for imported vehicles



"Obviously joking"? Come on. This is no joke.

I wonder how the idea got in his head? Did he make it up, or was there some sort of test that was kind of like that? Like, not literally a bowling ball, but a heavy spherical object, and he's just calling it a bowling ball?

The video in your link shows it.

Of course he not only can't describe it accurately, but he also doesn't understand what the test is for. Plus even if you could get him to understand what the actual test comprises of, he still wouldn't understand why you would want to make cars safer for pedestrians.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

It's a pedestrian safety standard I had imagined applied worldwide. Maybe US auto makers haven't heard of pedestrians, or imagines they went extinct after they campaigned for the creation of 'jaywalking' laws a century ago..

If you hit a person, particularly if you're driving a low car, they get spun over and their head hits the hood. If that doesn't deform to absorb the blow, they'll probably get a fractured skull. (If it deforms but hits the solid mass of the engine close underneath, they'll still get a fractured skull. That's the reason some cars got fitted with hood lifters in the hinges which go off with the airbags; they lift the hood further clear of the engine block.)

 

[Norman Alexander]

It's a pedestrian safety standard I had imagined applied worldwide. Maybe US auto makers haven't heard of pedestrians, or imagines they went extinct after they campaigned for the creation of 'jaywalking' laws a century ago..

If you hit a person, particularly if you're driving a low car, they get spun over and their head hits the hood. If that doesn't deform to absorb the blow, they'll probably get a fractured skull. (If it deforms but hits the solid mass of the engine close underneath, they'll still get a fractured skull. That's the reason some cars got fitted with hood lifters in the hinges which go off with the airbags; they lift the hood further clear of the engine block.)

Trump sees bouncing people's heads on a car as a means of collecting overdue rent

 

[catsmate]

China seems to be upping the ante in the trade war.

Trump tariffs: China warns nations against 'appeasing' US in trade deals

Beijing was responding to reports that the US will pressure other nations to restrict trade with China.

www.bbc.co.uk

They smell the Trump regime's vulnerability.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Higher inflation/lower rates lower the value of the dollar, automatically reducing the trade deficit.

 

[Puppycow]

The video in your link shows it.

Of course he not only can't describe it accurately, but he also doesn't understand what the test is for. Plus even if you could get him to understand what the actual test comprises of, he still wouldn't understand why you would want to make cars safer for pedestrians.

It's a pedestrian safety standard I had imagined applied worldwide. Maybe US auto makers haven't heard of pedestrians, or imagines they went extinct after they campaigned for the creation of 'jaywalking' laws a century ago..

Thanks for that explanation. I actually hadn't watched the video, just read the text. And it seems that more has been added to the article since I saw it.

But the 43 standards, including this test, are not Japan's own criteria. The country applies international standards under a United Nations agreement. European Union states and South Korea are also among those using the same standards. The United States uses proprietary safety benchmarks, applying three of the 43 international standards.

So there is a very legitimate safety reason for the test and it isn't just an arbitrary "trade barrier" designed to keep US cars out. And furthermore, the hood is supposed to be dented. He has it backwards. It's not that the car fails the test if the hood is dented. As far as the US safety standards go, they are very much centered on the safety of the occupants of the vehicle, not on the safety of pedestrians that the vehicle might collide with.

There are certain Japanese vehicles that don't meet the US standards. Is this a "trade barrier"? (What's more, the US safety standards vary from state to state, they aren't all federal standards.

A cute, cheap death trap? Japanese Kei cars banned by yet another US state

Limited in size and power, Kei cars are like fishes out of water on US roads.

arstechnica.com

Japanese Kei cars (which literally means "light vehicle" in Japanese) are considered too light and cheap for US roads. If they collide with a US-sized SUV or pickup truck, they will not come out well for the occupants of the Kei car. Wasn't there a thread a while back about "killdozers" and the danger to pedestrians?

 

[dudalb]

Doubtful. They can make the parts. Quite possibly to a higher standard than Boeing or it's contractors.


Yes. The Chinese government is capable of planning beyond tomorrow.

The Trump Tantrum Tax is going to damage USAia far more than China.

True, the Trump Tariffs are idiotic, but you admire the Chinese Govnerment a bit more then I like. Or what part of they are a ruthless dictatorship didnot you get?

 

[Norman Alexander]

True, the Trump Tariffs are idiotic, but you admire the Chinese Govnerment a bit more then I like. Or what part of they are a ruthless dictatorship didnot you get?

Funny how the ruthless communist dictatorship has all the hallmarks of a highly successful capitalist country - burgeoning industries, financial growth, modernisation and technology leadership, expanding trade and global influence, many millionaires and billionaires... Mao Tse Dung would not recognise the country he nearly starved to death.

 

[Trebuchet]

Are parts available from non-US companies ?

Have they already been reverse engineered in China and are ready to start production ?

Boeing has been aggressively outsourcing supply of components and systems to China for a couple of decades, often supplying technology China didn't have to make them. China will be fine. Boeing, not so much.

 

[catsmate]

True, the Trump Tariffs are idiotic, but you admire the Chinese Govnerment a bit more then I like. Or what part of they are a ruthless dictatorship didnot you get?

Oh good grief............

 

[Puppycow]

I thought this was reasonable. It is a bit of a long watch, but he explains his logic.


Trust and friendly relations take a long time to build, but only a short time to destroy.

 

[Puppycow]

China ups their meme game


ETA: Damn. Embedding disabled. It's a short. Less than a minute. I'll leave it up but you'll have to click through if you want to see it.

 

[lobosrul5]

Funny how the ruthless communist dictatorship has all the hallmarks of a highly successful capitalist country - burgeoning industries, financial growth, modernisation and technology leadership, expanding trade and global influence, many millionaires and billionaires... Mao Tse Dung would not recognise the country he nearly starved to death.

Things aren't super rosy in China. They depend on foreign exports for growth. Their real estate market took a tumble much worse than the US did in 2008-09., and their debt to GDP is significantly worse than the US's. But, to call them communist is totally a misnomer at this point. They're fascist essentially. ETA: oh and Chinese per capita productivity is about $15 per hour worked, while the USA's is $70 which is pretty much top in the world if you exclude tax havens. And we want to go back to that sort of economy because bubba misses the days, or thinks he does, back when factory work paid well?!

China's Economy Is in Deep Trouble | Opinion

Because Xi Jinping is determined to take the country in an unsustainable direction, China is entering, as some call it, a "doom loop."

www.newsweek.com

Gauging the Strength of China’s Economy in Uncertain Times - Liberty Street Economics

An update on China’s recent economic performance and policy changes, focusing on aggregate credit as a measure to gauge policy stimulus.

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

 

[Norman Alexander]

Things aren't super rosy in China. They depend on foreign exports for growth. Their real estate market took a tumble much worse than the US did in 2008-09., and their debt to GDP is significantly worse than the US's. But, to call them communist is totally a misnomer at this point. They're fascist essentially. ETA: oh and Chinese per capita productivity is about $15 per hour worked, while the USA's is $70 which is pretty much top in the world if you exclude tax havens. And we want to go back to that sort of economy because bubba misses the days, or thinks he does, back when factory work paid well?!

China's Economy Is in Deep Trouble | Opinion

Because Xi Jinping is determined to take the country in an unsustainable direction, China is entering, as some call it, a "doom loop."

www.newsweek.com

Gauging the Strength of China’s Economy in Uncertain Times - Liberty Street Economics

An update on China’s recent economic performance and policy changes, focusing on aggregate credit as a measure to gauge policy stimulus.

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

Sure, China has many problems and is far from utopia. And yet they have huge modern cities, super fast rail networks, high tourism rates, plenty of technology in many areas, good health care, global influence... They are not a peasant agrarian economy any more. Certainly not communist anyway. Although there are still some relics of communism to be found in government.