UK political landscape after the referendum

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Scotland has no deficit at the moment. What share of the current UK deficit Scotland might accept on gaining independence is a matter for negotiation.

I think you may also be confused. The negotiation of our share of debt and obligations will help define what the deficit is to some extent but we won't be negotiating a share of the deficit.

Our deficit will be decided by what we spend and what we take in. While the oil price is low that's going to be a biggish number.

What it won't be is the number currently reported as the deficit which makes assumptions about allocations of UK spending and taxation allocated to Scotland rather than measure something real.

 

[Francesca R]

Scotland has no deficit at the moment. What share of the current UK deficit Scotland might accept on gaining independence is a matter for negotiation.

[ . . . ]

Any assessment of Scotland's finances at present as they might relate to EMU criteria is purely notional.

This was not raised in the context of how much debt Scotland might negotiate with the UK. ("Deficit" is really not about negotiation it is the gap between spending and revenue and that would be all of IndyScotland's own making)

It was raised in the context of Scotland / Sturgeon negotiating fast track "seamless" EU membership continuation before (but conditional on) independence from the UK.

So good luck to her going to meet the EU folks and attempting to void her official data which has been in the public domain for years, to replace that with "it's notional". She may get lucky.

 

[Rolfe]

I made a mistake returning to this area of the forum. Goodbye again.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

her official data

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth?

 

[Hercules56]

This was the one and only British referendum on being a member of the EU.

One must wonder what would the result have been if they were given the choice back in the 1990s.

 

[Hercules56]

The Lisbon Treaty also, was ratified without referendums.

Not cool.

 

[Francesca R]

There did not have to be a referendum on this. It was a Cameron gamble / tactic that carried colossal risk and went bad. His legacy is deservedly shredded IMO for ever.

 

[MikeG]

Well, it kept his right wing at bay for 3 or 4 years, stopped defections to UKIP, possibly enabled the Coalition government to function, and was probably something he thought would be jettisoned in the expected coalition negotiations after the 2015 election. One could make a case for saying that the fact of this referendum is at least partially the fault of the pollsters who so mis-read the last election.

 

[ceptimus]

Don't forget that if Scotland does become independent, it will not only have its own deficit but also have to inherit its fair share of the UK's existing debt.

The deficit you can mostly calculate at present from available figures on taxation and spending - though it's complicated by defence spending on nuclear submarine bases and other military installations that will presumably move to England, Wales or Northern Ireland in the event of independence.

I assume the debt would just be split between Scotland and RUK on a per-capita basis, but perhaps there are other means of dividing it up?

 

[Aber]

At least recognise that Cameron's strategy was Renegotiate and Referendum; effectively trying to create a firebreak against rising anti_EU feeling (from immigration & ever closer union) and increasing UKIP support.

Given the results of the referendum, with some areas having 70% plus votes for leave, something had to be done.

 

[GlennB]

Well, it kept his right wing at bay for 3 or 4 years, stopped defections to UKIP, possibly enabled the Coalition government to function, and was probably something he thought would be jettisoned in the expected coalition negotiations after the 2015 election. One could make a case for saying that the fact of this referendum is at least partially the fault of the pollsters who so mis-read the last election.

The bill enabling it was passed in July 2013 according to my reading, so it's hard to blame the pollsters of spring 2015, nearly 2 years later. Basically I don't understand what you mean by your final sentence.

 

[Francesca R]

I assume the debt would just be split between Scotland and RUK on a per-capita basis, but perhaps there are other means of dividing it up?

There are other means. Last time the SNP threatened to default to the UK on all of it if the UK government didn't go for a currency union.

Other ways could be a debt-for-asset swap deal, such as the UK shouldering the service of all debt in exchange for a call on oil revenue from the North Sea for some years.

Bottom line it would be all up for grabs. But each side has an incentive to get the biggest slice of pie.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Don't forget that if Scotland does become independent, it will not only have its own deficit but also have to inherit its fair share of the UK's existing debt.

The deficit you can mostly calculate at present from available figures on taxation and spending - though it's complicated by defence spending on nuclear submarine bases and other military installations that will presumably move to England, Wales or Northern Ireland in the event of independence.

I assume the debt would just be split between Scotland and RUK on a per-capita basis, but perhaps there are other means of dividing it up?

I think the devil is in the detail of 'fair share'. I think the SNP would be less likely to simply accept a per-capita allocation of the existing debt if it isn't seeking or getting a currency union with England.

I'm not sure if anyone has suggested it or looked at it but it might be fair to allocate the debt on a proportional basis to the value of assets being transferred

There remains an extremist argument that Scotland has no responsibility for any of the debt although I think that's difficult to justify as being fair but since when has fairness entered into politics anyway?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

There are other means. Last time the SNP threatened to default to the UK on all of it if the UK government didn't go for a currency union.

Other ways could be a debt-for-asset swap deal, such as the UK shouldering the service of all debt in exchange for a call on oil revenue from the North Sea for some years.

Bottom line it would be all up for grabs. But each side has an incentive to get the biggest slice of pie.

Default is not the correct word for refusing to accept someone else's debt.

 

[Francesca R]

Tell that to rating agencies.

 

[MikeG]

The bill enabling it was passed in July 2013 according to my reading, so it's hard to blame the pollsters of spring 2015, nearly 2 years later. Basically I don't understand what you mean by your final sentence.

Yep, I'm wrong with that comment. The die was already cast.

 

[Giz]

I

I'm not sure if anyone has suggested it or looked at it but it might be fair to allocate the debt on a proportional basis to the value of assets being transferred

So if Scotland takes the north sea oil, it also takes the debt?

 

[GlennB]

Yep, I'm wrong with that comment. The die was already cast.

Fair enough.

I see that yet a new word has been coined: Bregret.

"Electoral services workers have reported calls from people asking if they could change their decision after Friday’s result became clear, while some publicly admitted they intended to use a “protest vote” in the belief the UK was certain to remain in the European Union."

Independent article

A few here were worried about the random protest vote becoming a serious factor, though how many "Bregretters" there actually are I have no idea. Perhaps there will be polls

 

[MikeG]

......I see that yet a new word has been coined: Bregret.

"Electoral services workers have reported calls from people asking if they could change their decision after Friday’s result became clear, while some publicly admitted they intended to use a “protest vote” in the belief the UK was certain to remain in the European Union.".......

There's no accounting for stupidity, nor is there any way of determining how the stupidity split between leave and remain. All we know is that it's too late now.

 

[Francesca R]

So if Scotland takes the north sea oil, it also takes the debt?

Well not all of the debt.

Whatever. Scotland's interest is in all the oil and no debt. The UK's is the other way about. The game has an equilibrium point somewhere.