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UK political landscape after the referendum

GlennB said:
On further reflection, I reckon Boris is pissing his pants right now and might not even stand for the leadership. He'll find some plausible reason.
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Gove is gagging for it. It consumes him.

My money's on Theresa May, with Gove packed off to run the negotiations while she runs the country. Less austerity and more pragmatism at home, continued immigration blamed on Gove - what's not to like? Out of all the options I think it's the best, and might even stop the exit process before it becomes irrevocable. Two years is a long time in politics ...
 
ceptimus said:
What currency will the SNP propose using after the next hypothetical indyref? Will it be the Bank of England pound again?
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Wait and see.

That would be the poorly-named central bank of the UK, as much the property of Scotland as of England, and which curiously enough was founded by a Scot.

The only problem last time was that the Yes campaign didn't set out the self-evident "plan B" clearly enough, for fear of looking soft on plan A. Plan A was the solution that made sense for both Scotland and England. The concept that Cameron could be so self-destructive that he'd reject what was actually a damn good offer never quite seemed to sink in.

If they'd taken the line, we'll continue to use the pound on an informal basis but in a spirit of co-operation we will offer England a formal currency union to provide stability and under-write the currency, that might have played a bit better.

Now, though, I'm not sure if anyone wants the pound.
 
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Rolfe said:
Of course, the opinion polls might not show a surge to Yes, and if they don't then I think Sturgeon will be cautious. That possibility is why she hasn't made any definite declaration as yet. But if they do, then Boris isn't even going to be asked. We could get this over with by the autumn.
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Well I wish you all the best. Had I been able to vote in the Indyref I'd have voted for Scottish independence.

I am not sure what the position is over Scotland being allowed to call another referendum, constitutionally, and I think that Westminster would want to let things settle down and see what kind of Brexit deal can be struck.

Of course events may overtake everything. We're in uncharted waters, that's for sure and the SNP have a damn good case for a new referendum given yesterdays results.
 
Rolfe said:
Scotland is not interested in exiting the EU as a part of the UK, then voting for independence and applying to re-join. Scotland is interested in NOT LEAVING.
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That's what I'm talking about. :)

England needs to negotiate its own position post yesterday's vote, without Scotland.
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It isn't going to. Westminster is going to negotiate in the name of everybody.

The EU is making positive noises about letting Scotland take over the UK's membership as an independent country. This is not an offer that should be left on the table to see what else might happen.
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You mean the French stirring it in Scotland, don't you? This is getting positively medieval. :cool:

Of course, the opinion polls might not show a surge to Yes, and if they don't then I think Sturgeon will be cautious. That possibility is why she hasn't made any definite declaration as yet. But if they do, then Boris isn't even going to be asked. We could get this over with by the autumn.
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There's no rush. Let the inevitable disarray at Westminster work for you for a while.
 
Read this.

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/that-sinking-feeling-4559d45e8c0b#.c6xrshycv

This guy was one of the most virulent, nasty, sneering, anti-independence voices in Scotland. I'm not sure who blocked whom on Twitter first. His articles were filled with bile, scorn and hatred for everything the SNP and the Yes campaign stood for.

J. K. Rowling, whom he mentions towards the end, gave a million quid to the No campaign in 2014. She also has been all over Twitter sneering and belittling independence supporters, and especially trawling for retaliation from them so that she could run to the media and her million followers bleating "look these nasty cybernats are bullying me!"

That these two are even contemplating support for independence is breathtaking. That the Daily Record, author of "The Vow" is showing a pro-referendum (and arguably pro-independence) front page tomorrow is breathtaking. Mike Dailly, another prolific scourge of the independence campaign has already stated that he will vote Yes. The SNP is experiencing a membership surge comparable to 19th September 2014.

In this context, nobody is going to care what Boris thinks.
 
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CapelDodger said:
That's what I'm talking about. :)

It isn't going to. Westminster is going to negotiate in the name of everybody.

You mean the French stirring it in Scotland, don't you? This is getting positively medieval. :cool:

There's no rush. Let the inevitable disarray at Westminster work for you for a while.
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Well, you know, it's not up to me. Or anyone in this thread. The train is already rolling down the hill.
 
CapelDodger said:
I do actually expect another global financial crash in the next few years which will obliterate any Brexit effect. The only question is what the trigger might be.
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Possibly Brexit. Given the savaging of markets yesterday, it could easily end up causing a global slowdown. I think the UK is bigger than Lehman/sub-prime, and that hurt a lot of people.
 
That's what I meant. The train is rolling, and Nicola is poised to take full advantage of that. She can't create the necessary conditions on her own, but given that the conditions are creating themselves, she's ready to go.
 
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I think we could see an unedifying spectacle as the leaders of the Brexit camp try not to become leader of the Tory party immediately; it's no secret that Boris Johnson and Teresa May both want the power but if they have a lick of sense they'll wait until whoever invokes Article 50 has conducted the bulk of the negotiations before stepping in. Then they have someone to blame for not getting the house, custody of the kids and half the pension. Teresa May, by staying out of the campaigns, has played this all very cleverly.

I wouldn't be surprised by a second Indyref, and this time the Yes vote to win, but whether the EU would accept an application from Scotland and on what terms is a different matter. I think from what I've read today that an independent Scotland would have to apply rather than taking over the UK membership, and that the euro would be a non-negotiable part of the deal, but if Scotland can make the figures work then they should go for it. If I didn't have family ties here in England I'd be seriously considering moving north; I have two brothers there already (and enough Scottish ancestry that I hope I'd be granted citizenship in an independent Scotland).

Corbyn is dead in the water - the lacklustre campaigning for Remain wasn't entirely his fault but he'll get the blame as Cameron cries crocodile tears into his millions - and if the PLP has any sense they'll pick a strong confident leader, but there's no point in picking someone who'll try to keep us in the EU. That decision is gone, and we have to move forward.

All the above is speculation but I do recognise that what we've done is irreversible. I voted to stay and I'm giving myself 24 hours to wallow in misery at the result, but then we as a country have to find a way through the next couple of years the best way we can. One thing is fairly certain; things will never be the same.
 
Good grief, if you live in Scotland and you have British citizenship already, you will have an automatic right to Scottish citizenship on independence. Nobody is going to be asking for a pedigree.

I can't get over the way some people seem to think that ancestry is important. It's irrelevant unless you're talking about people who don't live in Scotland or (more problematic) aren't British citizens. There's no racial purity test for people who have already chosen to live here.
 
One fly in the Indy ointment is that leaving the UK will now mean no free movement of people between Scotland and England. That would be problematic.
 
Nessie said:
The SNP will hum and haw about another referendum, but I suspect they will not go for it because if lost, that really is the end of them. Instead they will campaign for Scotland's government can negotiate with the EU on its own.
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There is another aspect : the SNP would probably have to reform on how Scotland's finance are, as I read that they do not match the deficit criteria EU expect (although we all know how well that went with many of the countries which already exists today). And that is maybe another can of worm they don't want to open as they would have to cut down finance all over the board. In such case just whinging around and not doing a referendum would be the way to go.
 
Nessie said:
The Tories will become the Brexit party lead by goodness knows who with the one UKIP MP Creswell returning to the fold. UKIP under Farage will be marginalised because their job is done and they were never part of the official leave campaign anyway.
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This. UKIP was always a one-issue party, and that issue is now dead and buried. What else do they have to offer?

Dave
 
Labour will need to choose an electable leader very soon. Corbyn was toxic before Brexit. He's radioactive now.
 
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