UK political landscape after the referendum

[Darat]

The topic of this thread is not the referendum (plenty of threads to talk about that) but what folk think will be the outcome of the likes of Cameron's resignation.

On the Tory side I can't see there being any leadership candidate that isn't much to the right of Cameron and Osborne so I can see "austerity" being extended indefinitely for anyone not already wealthy and I do see even more curbs on the rights of workers and citizens in general, especially because Labour will be too busy fighting their internal differences to be an effective opposition.

On the Labour side I see months of internal strife as the PLP is now totally at odds with the party membership, its current leadership and Labour supporters in the UK. Don't expect the no confidence vote to happen, think more sensible heads will prevail. (Mind you this is MPs I'm predicting will act in a sensible way - so probably wrong.)

UKIP on the up and up, they will now be seen as a "respectable" party that people will no longer be as embarrassed to mention they are a supporter (like the shy Tories of Thatcher years).

In the regions I see a push from Scotland for another referendum on Scottish independence but given who will now be in charge of the UK don't expect it to happen. Wales wants out and NI doesn't want to be united with the South so don't think there will be much change there.

Thoughts?

 

[3point14]

In one word: fractured.

I'm thinking of starting a 'workers rights' party. A single issue party with the intention of adding to UK legislation all of the workers protections that will be lost following the exit from Europe.

Probably wouldn't gain much traction.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The topic of this thread is not the referendum (plenty of threads to talk about that) but what folk think will be the outcome of the likes of Cameron's resignation.

On the Tory side I can't see there being any leadership candidate that isn't much to the right of Cameron and Osborne so I can see "austerity" being extended indefinitely for anyone not already wealthy and I do see even more curbs on the rights of workers and citizens in general, especially because Labour will be too busy fighting their internal differences to be an effective opposition.

On the Labour side I see months of internal strife as the PLP is now totally at odds with the party membership, its current leadership and Labour supporters in the UK. Don't expect the no confidence vote to happen, think more sensible heads will prevail. (Mind you this is MPs I'm predicting will act in a sensible way - so probably wrong.)

UKIP on the up and up, they will now be seen as a "respectable" party that people will no longer be as embarrassed to mention they are a supporter (like the shy Tories of Thatcher years).

In the regions I see a push from Scotland for another referendum on Scottish independence but given who will now be in charge of the UK don't expect it to happen. Wales wants out and NI doesn't want to be united with the South so don't think there will be much change there.

Thoughts?

Seems like the next few years will be an argument between the right and the extreme right as there really aren't any strong dissenting voices to balance. Not looking good really, is it?

I feel like we are on the verge of something quite bad. That nagging doubt at the back of my mind that the brown stuff is really about to hit the fan

 

[GlennB]

If Johnson really does take the Tory helm then he's taking up a poisoned chalice. I doubt he'll last very long in the role as every bad thing that happens in the next few years will be attributed to him. There are political commentators out there suggesting that he wasn't expecting this result at all, but was just getting his hat in the ring early in order to take over in 2019/20.

I tend to think things will get slightly ugly fairly soon. Not earth-shatteringly bad, but bad enough for a backlash against prominent Brexiters, primarily Johnson (Farage isn't important enough, he's a sideshow)

 

[3point14]

I tend to think things will get slightly ugly fairly soon. Not earth-shatteringly bad, but bad enough for a backlash against prominent Brexiters, primarily Johnson (Farage isn't important enough, he's a sideshow)

I'd say this is pretty accurate.

Any mass redundancies announced in the next few months, regardless whether or not leaving the EU was/is the cause, will cause quite a backlash (From those that voted out as well as those that voted in)

 

[Nessie]

The Tories will become the Brexit party lead by goodness knows who with the one UKIP MP Creswell returning to the fold. UKIP under Farage will be marginalised because their job is done and they were never part of the official leave campaign anyway.

The work required to leave the EU will keep politicians and the civil service going for years. Everything else will virtually go on hold. To avoid that a cross party group is set up to exclusively deal with Brexit. It will be lead by Boris or Gove.

Labour will fight amongst itself for a while and will only settle when they find a leader whom most can accept (no one is on the horizon for that one as yet). Meanwhile effective opposition will collapse.

The Lib Dems will become even more irrelevant as yet another of their beliefs goes away (PR, cheap further education and now the EU).

The SNP will hum and haw about another referendum, but I suspect they will not go for it because if lost, that really is the end of them. Instead they will campaign for Scotland's government can negotiate with the EU on its own.

NI will stay the same. They will not leave the UK nor join with Ireland.

 

[The Atheist]

Seems like the next few years will be an argument between the right and the extreme right as there really aren't any strong dissenting voices to balance. Not looking good really, is it?

I feel like we are on the verge of something quite bad. That nagging doubt at the back of my mind that the brown stuff is really about to hit the fan

Not to mention the knock-on effect of the stupid. I see le Pen and other far-right leaders have immediately jumped on the bandwagon and Spain's mentioned Gibraltar.

I am disgustedly disappointed in Labour and Corbyn. A full-strength Labour push to remain would probably have been enough, but the thought of putting down ideologies for a second wasn't a pill they could swallow and will, like Labour in NZ, disappear into political obscurity. I can see a not too-distant future where Labour is the third party in England*.


*Yes, I do mean England. Without Scotland there is no kingdom to unite, as Wales is a principality and NI little more than a territory.

 

[ChristianProgressive]

Labor and the Liberals have the same problem as we do in the US: they're really "light Right" and not truly Left. As long as party insiders continue to block out truly Left progressive voices on most issues while keeping the social justice nutjobs they can't gain traction with the populace.

 

[GlennB]

On further reflection, I reckon Boris is pissing his pants right now and might not even stand for the leadership. He'll find some plausible reason.

 

[angrysoba]

I foresee the emergence of pestilence, famine, war and Boris Johnson.

I don't know about Scotland becoming indepedent. Some Scottish people will demand another referendum but I think a lot of politicians will be wary of using that tool in the future.

 

[Sunstealer]

I wouldn't worry about the political landscape, WW3 will be on us sooner enough. David Cameron told me so.

 

[CapelDodger]

Seems like the next few years will be an argument between the right and the extreme right as there really aren't any strong dissenting voices to balance. Not looking good really, is it?

I feel like we are on the verge of something quite bad. That nagging doubt at the back of my mind that the brown stuff is really about to hit the fan

With you there, pal.

I hate to Godwin, but the last days of the Weimar Republic keep coming to mind. The established (and Establishment) parties have lost contact with those they theoretically represent, democracy itself is under question, experts are derided, opportunists are touting simplistic explanations to a population largely perplexed by the modern world ...

The saving of Scotland might be that Scottish nationalism is associated with being in Europe. It seems to me only reasonable that, when the UK's future arrangements with the EU become clear in two years time, a referendum on which to remain with - the UK or the EU - should be held.

 

[Rolfe]

Wait and see what happens with the Survation poll that's in the field at the moment and due to be published early next week. (There may be similar polls in the pipeline from other companies too of course.) If the mood on social media is reflected in the polling figures, we're off.

The SNP is currently experiencing another run of membership applications, apparently similar to what happened on 19th September last year. Twitter and Facebook are swarming with declarations from previously-declared No voters that they'll be voting Yes next time. This includes people who were prominent in the official Better Together organisation in 2014, including some names that have seriously boggled my mind.

Scottish newspapers seem to be re-positioning themselves for a second referendum, and it looks likely that the 100% backing for No that was a feature of almost all the 2013-14 campaign is set to change.

In other news, I understand that a Post Office in a loyalist area of Belfast received 200 applications today from people applying for Irish passports.

If next week's Scottish polls confirm that support for independence has surged significantly over the 50% mark, it's goodbye from us. And you can forget that guff about "a sustained period of polling over 60% for independence". There is a tide in the affairs of men, and all that. Nicola Sturgeon isn't an idiot. Diem is about to be well and truly carped.

 

[CapelDodger]

I wouldn't worry about the political landscape, WW3 will be on us sooner enough. David Cameron told me so.

I do actually expect another global financial crash in the next few years which will obliterate any Brexit effect. The only question is what the trigger might be.

 

[Ambrosia]

Wait and see what happens with the Survation poll that's in the field at the moment and due to be published early next week. (There may be similar polls in the pipeline from other companies too of course.) If the mood on social media is reflected in the polling figures, we're off..

Hi Rolfe!

Good to see you. We appear to be living in interesting times.

I really doubt that Scotland is getting another Indyref anytime soon.

I can see Boris putting that on ice until after Brexit negotiations are done and dusted.

 

[CapelDodger]

If next week's Scottish polls confirm that support for independence has surged significantly over the 50% mark, it's goodbye from us. And you can forget that guff about "a sustained period of polling over 60% for independence". There is a tide in the affairs of men, and all that. Nicola Sturgeon isn't an idiot. Diem is about to be well and truly carped.

And not rushed, I'm sure. Scottish voters deserve to know what's on offer from Westminster vis a vis the EU before deciding on whether to stick with what they already have and leave the UK.

Boris Johnson is already trying to delay the process because he's no clue what to actually do now; whoever ends up as Tory Leader can be kept under pressure by the SNP as well as the EU to get things moving along. Sovereignty delayed is sovereignty denied, after all.

Westminster will, in the next couple of years, make such a spectacle of itself that Scotland will demand to be let go. Mark my words.

 

[CapelDodger]

I really doubt that Scotland is getting another Indyref anytime soon.

I can see Boris putting that on ice until after Brexit negotiations are done and dusted.

Boris will have no choice in the matter.

Boris would like to put the actuality of exit off indefinitely, but I doubt he'll have the option. Half the population despises him already, and the other half want something done now.

 

[CapelDodger]

... (Farage isn't important enough, he's a sideshow)

There's that Weimar thing rattling around my head again. I wish I could shake it.

It would, of course, be ridiculous to identify Farage with Hitler : even our modern monsters are, frankly, crap.

 

[Rolfe]

Hi Rolfe!

Good to see you. We appear to be living in interesting times.

I really doubt that Scotland is getting another Indyref anytime soon.

I can see Boris putting that on ice until after Brexit negotiations are done and dusted.

It's not up to Boris. You could cut the mood here with a knife.

If the opinion polls next week confirm what social media appear to be saying, nobody is going to be hanging around. Scotland is not interested in exiting the EU as a part of the UK, then voting for independence and applying to re-join. Scotland is interested in NOT LEAVING.

England needs to negotiate its own position post yesterday's vote, without Scotland. The EU is making positive noises about letting Scotland take over the UK's membership as an independent country. This is not an offer that should be left on the table to see what else might happen.

Of course, the opinion polls might not show a surge to Yes, and if they don't then I think Sturgeon will be cautious. That possibility is why she hasn't made any definite declaration as yet. But if they do, then Boris isn't even going to be asked. We could get this over with by the autumn.

 

[ceptimus]

What currency will the SNP propose using after the next hypothetical indyref? Will it be the Bank of England pound again?