True skeptics are 'conspiracy theorists'

[Davidjayjordan]

disclaimer: my stats suck

Isn't it:
(1/52)*(1/51)*(1/50)*(1/49)*(1/48)

eta: 1 in 311875200

Arkan... I don;t think so, as there are five possible cards that would match A K G J T not just 1 so it should be 5/52, but in the second dealt card, there is probably a change because there is only 51 cards left.... maybe 4/51 etc etc...

But then again, I'd leave that to the stats people, they are a dime a dozen .... real inspiration comes from not stats but from real INspiration.

Life isn't a gamble or a craps shot, it should be decided upon thru direct personal experiences rather than probablity and quesses. Forget stats unless you are into gambling and gambling with yuor life.

 

[The Almond]

Actually Johnny 5, I went from an A in stats to a C in my university stats course,[...]

Shouldn't you have been able to get the problem right, then?

 

[Arkan_Wolfshade]

Arkan... I don;t think so, as there are five possible cards that would match A K G J T not just 1 so it should be 5/52, but in the second dealt card, there is probably a change because there is only 51 cards left.... maybe 4/51 etc etc...

But then again, I'd leave that to the stats people, they are a dime a dozen .... real inspiration comes from not stats but from real INspiration.

So 120 in 311875200
=> 60 in 155937600
=> 30 in 77968800
=> 15 in 38984400

3.8476929233231754240157601502139e-7 <> 8.2192710675935177878387149771205e-6 (your claim of (5/52)^5)

 

[Davidjayjordan]

Shouldn't you have been able to get the problem right, then?

Nah, you can work on it if you like. I am not into probablity but certainty.

Stats can be manipulated as mentioned. People can be manipulated by polls, people can be manipulated by the news, people can be manipulated by governments.

But if you want to search poker probability, that's your choice.

 

[JonnyFive]

disclaimer: my stats suck

Isn't it:
(1/52)*(1/51)*(1/50)*(1/49)*(1/48)

Yes, assuming the cards are all spades, as my third reading of the thing does seem to comfirm.

Otherwise the probability would be (4/52)*(4/51)*(4/50)*(5/49)*(1/48) as it could be read as only specifying a suit for the 10 of spades.

Actually Johnny 5, I went from an A in stats to a C in my university stats course, because I gave a PRESENTATION where I showed where you could maniplulate the parameters to show whatever results you wanted. I knew it pretty well back then and yet that was NOT what the prof wanted to hear or see. As he worshipped stats and thought they were the end all be all. Just an indicator, as I like precision even though it takes a while to get co-realations exact exact, and see them as laws.

So what you're saying is: "I bombed my stats course because I started making up stuff"?

I think you're just lying again, as you seem quite prone to. In mathematics there are very well defined rules, and when you use them correctly you arrive at correct answers. If you just start changing things randomly, you're not doing the same problem and may actually be breaking mathematical rules by using improper formulas, incorrect calculations, etc.

You do realize that mathematics requires that you explicitly state assumptions and parameters when you formulate a problem, right?

 

[The Almond]

Stats can be manipulated as mentioned. People can be manipulated by polls, people can be manipulated by the news, people can be manipulated by governments.

Do you think people can be manipulated by out of context quotes, incomplete information and poor logic? If you put it in a video with spooky music and ask a bunch of open ended questions, do you think you could manipulate people?

 

[Davidjayjordan]

Shouldn't you have been able to get the problem right, then?

Almond, you really have to study your name, and its geometry, because it is truly thrilling, even if a little sexual, but then again they do try to cover that up as well. Its again a conspiracy, a con to keep us anti-sexual and frustrated, and hence easier controlled. SEE Freud's observations about governments using sexual frustration for promoting wars.

 

[babazaroni]

disclaimer: my stats suck

Isn't it:
(1/52)*(1/51)*(1/50)*(1/49)*(1/48)

eta: 1 in 311875200

This is correct, as long as all those cards are spades, which I think the question implied.

Edit:

Actually, it is correct if you think the cards came in a particular order, which they did not.

The 5/52*4/51.... is the right way for any order.

 

[Davidjayjordan]

Got to fly gentleman, see you maybe tommorrow, the Lord Willing as no man is promised tommorrow. So might as well live life and give all you can today.

 

[aggle-rithm]

Actually Johnny 5, I went from an A in stats to a C in my university stats course, because I gave a PRESENTATION where I showed where you could maniplulate the parameters to show whatever results you wanted. I knew it pretty well back then and yet that was NOT what the prof wanted to hear or see. As he worshipped stats and thought they were the end all be all. Just an indicator, as I like precision even though it takes a while to get co-realations exact exact, and see them as laws.

If you get a poor grade in statistics, it's because of a weakness in your math skills, not your philosophical beliefs.

I would say the reason you went from an A to a C is that high school is easy, university is hard. You did not adjust your effort to compensate.

 

[aggle-rithm]

Got to fly gentleman, see you maybe tommorrow, the Lord Willing as no man is promised tommorrow. So might as well live life and give all you can today.

Who is Lord Willing? Is he related to Will Hunting?

 

[beachnut]

To start with Paul, you might consider changing your PIC from Einstein to something more applicable to your level of disconnectiveness.

Another non –word from our wordy guru of goop. What does this mean? Who cares? Exactly!
To start with Dave, you are disconnected from reality.

Einstein connected up the spirit and physical world and would have blasted the insane people that think 9/11 collapse was done without bombs.

Can you reference this? Source? You must be one of the insane people who think explosives were used, your veil has been removed your must be a CTer with no facts! Is this true you believe lies and do not use facts.

true skeptics don;t believe evrything the government tells them just because they are too lazy and too dependant and fearful of that government

I do not fear the government, you do. I do not believe everything the government says, you believe idiots who spout lies about 9/11.

This is so simple you come without facts and believe 9/11 conspiracies, many here do not.

Most people here use logic and facts to prove 9/11 CT dolts are wrong. You use talk to prove nothing.

 

[The Almond]

Almond, you really have to study your name, and its geometry, because it is truly thrilling, even if a little sexual, but then again they do try to cover that up as well. Its again a conspiracy, a con to keep us anti-sexual and frustrated, and hence easier controlled. SEE Freud's observations about governments using sexual frustration for promoting wars.

I hate to tell you this, but if Freud were correct, the USG is doing a terrible job of using sexual frustration. Are you aware of the incredible amount of free pornography available on the internet? Shouldn't we be trying to limit it in some more intrusive way?

 

[aggle-rithm]

Almond, you really have to study your name, and its geometry, because it is truly thrilling, even if a little sexual, but then again they do try to cover that up as well. Its again a conspiracy, a con to keep us anti-sexual and frustrated, and hence easier controlled. SEE Freud's observations about governments using sexual frustration for promoting wars.

Oh, come on. Just because you can't find a date doesn't mean there's a govt. anti-sex conspiracy.

 

[A W Smith]

two questions;

1) How many ounces of weed do you smoke a week?

2) why do you have three first names?

 

[Arkan_Wolfshade]

two questions;

1) How many ounces of weed do you smoke a week?

2) why do you have three first names?

HEY! #2 is utterly irrelevant. IRL I have a middle and last name that would function perfectly well as a first name.

 

[Paulhoff]

To start with Paul, you might consider changing your PIC from Einstein to something more applicable to your level of disconnectiveness.

Then why not answer my question Mr. 432 that I have asked many times before, if I put one pound of energy into moving one pound of matter, what percent of the speed of light will it be traveling at.

Paul

 

[JonnyFive]

This is correct, as long as all those cards are spades, which I think the question implied.

Edit:

Actually, it is correct if you think the cards came in a particular order, which they did not.

The 5/52*4/51.... is the right way for any order.

I thought it was implied that they came in that particular order. Otherwise, you would have to do it like that, where the full sequence is:

(5/52)*(4/51)*(3/50)*(2/49)*(1/48)

Every time you draw a card, the pool decreases and the number of possible draw results that would get a card from the desired result set also decreases by 1.

Unless the problem implies that only the 10 of spades specifies a suit, in which case it would be:

(17/52)*(13/51)*(9/50)*(5/49)*(1/48)

I believe.

Crazy stuff, that.

 

[Arkan_Wolfshade]

So, other than determining that DJJ is a conspiracy minded, Christian oriented, Freudian obsessed, statistically challenged troll; have we learned anything?

ETA: who is fond of applying True Scotsman Fallacies at every turn

 

[Hokulele]

I am not into probablity but certainty.

What is the distance between the earth and the moon?