Titanic tourist sub missing

[Puppycow]

I was trying to remember whether there was credible evidence that they knew something was wrong and were trying to ascend prior to the implosion. Apparently James Cameron said that he had heard that, but it hasn't been officially confirmed to my knowledge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_submersible_implosion

The dive operation began on 18 June at 9:30 a.m. Newfoundland Daylight Time (NDT), or 12:00 UTC.[75][76] For the first hour and a half of the descent, Titan communicated with Polar Prince every 15 minutes, but communication stopped after a recorded communication at 11:15 a.m. (13:45 UTC).[75] James Cameron indicated that it was likely that the sub's early warning system had alerted the passengers to an impending delamination of the hull. He added "we understand from inside the community that they had dropped their ascent weights and were coming up, trying to manage an emergency."[77] A U.S. Navy acoustic detection system designed to locate military submarines detected an acoustic signature consistent with an implosion hours after Titan submerged.[78]

Seems somewhat vague to me: "we understand from inside the community"
Also: "communication stopped after a recorded communication at 11:15 a.m. (13:45 UTC)"
I wonder what the content of the "recorded communication" was? Did it indicate that they were trying to ascend or that "the sub's early warning system had alerted the passengers to an impending delamination of the hull"?

In other words, did they know that they were in trouble prior to the implosion or did it happen instantaneously with no prior warning?

Also, the acoustic signature was detected "hours" after the sub submerged. I assume they know the precise time or can calculate it based on the speed of sound under water, but it doesn't seem to have been made public as far as I can find.

 

[The Man]

I was trying to remember whether there was credible evidence that they knew something was wrong and were trying to ascend prior to the implosion. Apparently James Cameron said that he had heard that, but it hasn't been officially confirmed to my knowledge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_submersible_implosion



Seems somewhat vague to me: "we understand from inside the community"
Also: "communication stopped after a recorded communication at 11:15 a.m. (13:45 UTC)"
I wonder what the content of the "recorded communication" was? Did it indicate that they were trying to ascend or that "the sub's early warning system had alerted the passengers to an impending delamination of the hull"?

In other words, did they know that they were in trouble prior to the implosion or did it happen instantaneously with no prior warning?

Also, the acoustic signature was detected "hours" after the sub submerged. I assume they know the precise time or can calculate it based on the speed of sound under water, but it doesn't seem to have been made public as far as I can find.

Yeah, assumptions and speculation, did the warning go off? Does it matter? Time from hearing the warning noted to catastrophic failure, seconds or microseconds. We’ll never know.

Like ripping velcro apart, once the delimitation happens the major structural elements of the CF lose their supportive structure. Like a cable suspension bridge losing all its cables.

In CF that directly structural to supportive sub- structural link is in the lamination. How the layers bind to each other. Once that breaks down the direct structural elements lose their distributive support and are stressed to failure.

Why I said, noticing just any (with the acoustic sensors) delaminating was a great idea, ignored to failure.

That it seems there may have been some failure warning is great for the systems, did what they were supposed to do. Not great for the operators, because they shouldn’t have been there doing that where even a good warning systems can’t help you (or them, the passengers).

I continue to be even more completely disgusted.

 

[Foster Zygote]

Time from hearing the warning noted to catastrophic failure, seconds or microseconds.

And the minimum time to reach safety measured in hours.

 

[Checkmite]

I was trying to remember whether there was credible evidence that they knew something was wrong and were trying to ascend prior to the implosion. Apparently James Cameron said that he had heard that, but it hasn't been officially confirmed to my knowledge.

Seems somewhat vague to me: "we understand from inside the community"

Quite frankly I'll remain dubious about the accuracy of what Cameron heard "through the community" until it's backed up by something more tangible.

Just because we've seen more than enough so far to know that "the community" - that is, the wider community of private submersible builders and operators - and OceanGate were not on particularly good terms to say the least. "The community" viewed Stockton Rush and OceanGate as a literal disaster actively trying to happen, and Rush considered "the community" to be a bunch of hidebound luddites whose focus and insistence on safety was an obstacle to innovation. It makes it difficult to imagine there was a whole lot of engagement between the two sides, or that someone aligned with "the community" would be working for OceanGate and sharing information between them.

 

[jeremyp]

Quite frankly I'll remain dubious about the accuracy of what Cameron heard "through the community" until it's backed up by something more tangible.

Just because we've seen more than enough so far to know that "the community" - that is, the wider community of private submersible builders and operators - and OceanGate were not on particularly good terms to say the least. "The community" viewed Stockton Rush and OceanGate as a literal disaster actively trying to happen, and Rush considered "the community" to be a bunch of hidebound luddites whose focus and insistence on safety was an obstacle to innovation. It makes it difficult to imagine there was a whole lot of engagement between the two sides, or that someone aligned with "the community" would be working for OceanGate and sharing information between them.

I take your point but I don't think the evidence bar is particularly high on this one. If the acoustic monitoring system worked as hoped, they would have had some warning. If they had some warning, they would have dumped the ballast to ascend and they would have signalled the surface.

I'd be really surprised if there was any kind of "Chinese wall" between Oceangate and "the community". Nargeolet was in the community. There will have been members of the ship's crew who would talk within the community. Maybe even some Oceangate employees would have been talking. After all, their boss who didn't like the community was dead and many would have realised they would soon be looking for new jobs.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

If they had some warning, they would have dumped the ballast to ascend..

No good reason to believe that system was working.

 

[jeremyp]

No good reason to believe that system was working.

No good reason to believe it wasn’t.

 

[JoeMorgue]

"I'm in a sub that looks like it was designed by a child with a limited budget and even more limited imagination" was good enough reason.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

"I'm in a sub that looks like it was designed by a child with a limited budget and even more limited imagination" was good enough reason.

But look at the website!!!!

 

[Foster Zygote]

No good reason to believe it wasn’t.

But given all the reports of "gunshot" loud cracking sounds heard aboard the craft, one has to wonder if it would have been heeded even if it had given any advance warning. Rush seems like the sort of guy who would have said, "it's nothing to worry about" and kept going.

 

[jeremyp]

But given all the reports of "gunshot" loud cracking sounds heard aboard the craft, one has to wonder if it would have been heeded even if it had given any advance warning. Rush seems like the sort of guy who would have said, "it's nothing to worry about" and kept going.

You guys are missing the point. I’m not claiming that they definitely did try to abort the mission, only that it is plausible that they did and therefore, it is plausible that James Cameron’s comment that he heard that they did is also plausible.

 

[Checkmite]

I take your point but I don't think the evidence bar is particularly high on this one. If the acoustic monitoring system worked as hoped, they would have had some warning. If they had some warning, they would have dumped the ballast to ascend and they would have signalled the surface.

No good reason to believe that system was working.

My thoughts exactly. At least one system designed by the same team - the submersible itself - failed catastrophically. That doesn't speak well for other systems they've designed, honestly.

 

[Checkmite]

You guys are missing the point. I’m not claiming that they definitely did try to abort the mission, only that it is plausible that they did and therefore, it is plausible that James Cameron’s comment that he heard that they did is also plausible.

No you're right, it's plausible. I just think there's positive reasons not to necessarily believe it to be true without some additional support. Beyond just being plausible. After all, it's just as plausible that Cameron is repeating rumors that filtered up to him which have no factual basis.

 

[smartcooky]

No you're right, it's plausible. I just think there's positive reasons not to necessarily believe it to be true without some additional support. Beyond just being plausible. After all, it's just as plausible that Cameron is repeating rumors that filtered up to him which have no factual basis.

Well, he was very, very early to make the claim (within hours, and while the search was still going on - so not much time for "filtering"

I also get the impression that the deep sea submersible community is a very tight and close-knit one... they all know each other persoanlly (and it seems they were almost universal in their contempt for Stockton Rush).

 

[jeremyp]

Well, he was very, very early to make the claim (within hours, and while the search was still going on - so not much time for "filtering"

He made the claim in an interview on Thursday 22nd June. The submersible imploded on the previous Monday.

He claimed (in the interview) that he "knew" the sub has imploded within hours but that "knew" would have been in the sense of making deductions from what he was told and the answer being obvious to him.

Cameron connected with people he knows in the deep-sea diving community and was told the submersible had lost communication and tracking simultaneously ...

“The only scenario that I could come up with in my mind that could account for that was an implosion..."

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/23/us/james-cameron-titan-submersible-ac360-interview/index.html

There was a similar interview with ABC that also occurred on the Thursday.

 

[Foster Zygote]

You guys are missing the point. I’m not claiming that they definitely did try to abort the mission, only that it is plausible that they did and therefore, it is plausible that James Cameron’s comment that he heard that they did is also plausible.

Sorry, I wasn't disputing that. It's definitely plausible that they were attempting to ascend prior to the implosion. I was commenting more on Rush's reliance on the 'acoustic monitoring system', which seems to me to have been more a means of dismissing certain safety concerns than a genuine safety feature, and his lack of concern with safety in general. Seeing as he'd already ignored, or dismissed as "normal", some rather alarming sounds from the hull on previous dives, I can only surmise that something downright terrifying would have to happen before he'd begin an emergency ascent. I only hope, for the sake of his passengers, that he wasn't having an infantile temper tantrum like he did on the Andrea Doria dive.

 

[The Man]

You guys are missing the point. I’m not claiming that they definitely did try to abort the mission, only that it is plausible that they did and therefore, it is plausible that James Cameron’s comment that he heard that they did is also plausible.

Sorry, I wasn't disputing that. It's definitely plausible that they were attempting to ascend prior to the implosion. I was commenting more on Rush's reliance on the 'acoustic monitoring system', which seems to me to have been more a means of dismissing certain safety concerns than a genuine safety feature, and his general lack of concern with safety in general. Seeing as he'd already ignored, or dismissed as "normal", some rather alarming sounds from the hull on previous dives, I can only surmise that something downright terrifying would have to happen before he'd begin an emergency ascent. I only hope, for the sake of his passengers, that he wasn't having an infantile temper tantrum like he did on the Andrea Doria dive.

Same here, what good is an acoustic warning system if you are just going to ignore clearly audible and quite disturbing sounds from your experimental uncertified hull?

ETA: Heck, even to the point where it is reported the salesperson represents that the system detects strands breaking. If you are actually at that point it's "Fantastic Voyage" abandon ship time. Though, go and blow won’t work unless you were saturation diving and even then, I doubt it'd be survivable at that depth.

 

[Marcus]

There is some evidence to suggest that Titan dropped weights.


"In an interview, Rob McCallum — a former advisor to OceanGate, the company that designed the Titan submersible — said he received a report that when the submersible reached 3,500 meters it dropped weights, meaning it aborted the dive, The New Yorker reported, before it “then it lost comms, and lost tracking, and an implosion was heard.”


https://www.newsnationnow.com/trave...-submarine/titan-may-have-tried-to-resurface/

 

[jeremyp]

Same here, what good is an acoustic warning system if you are just going to ignore clearly audible and quite disturbing sounds from your experimental uncertified hull?

ETA: Heck, even to the point where it is reported the salesperson represents that the system detects strands breaking. If you are actually at that point it's "Fantastic Voyage" abandon ship time. Though, go and blow won’t work unless you were saturation diving and even then, I doubt it'd be survivable at that depth.

To be any help, the acoustic warning system would have to detect problems several hours before failure of the hull, because that's how long it takes to ascend from the bottom. If it triggered and if they acted on the warning, one thing we do know is that it didn't give them hours.

As to whether they would have heeded the warning, I think they would, because there were two very successful businessmen on board, one with his son. They're probably used to dealing with people like Stockton Rush.

 

[Checkmite]

I also get the impression that the deep sea submersible community is a very tight and close-knit one... they all know each other persoanlly (and it seems they were almost universal in their contempt for Stockton Rush).

Right, but I already pointed out, that contempt gets in the way there; I specifically find it unlikely that members of the community that had a universal disdain for Rush and OceanGate would've been working for him on that expedition. My incomplete impression is that OceanGate was very much made up of "outsiders", not members of that community.