The VFF Test is On!

So it's better to check every test subject ahead of time than to blind the test subjects---on the off chance that one of them might be congenitally missing a kidney without knowing it? So that way, every test subject knows what VfF is looking for. Talk about making it easy to cold read.
The protocol specified that each group would have 5 subjects with both kidneys and 1 subject with just one kidney. But, as CZ points out, we don't know whether that was followed.

Why not use the ultrasound machine on all subjects after the test?

Not only was the protocol poorly designed, it wasn't even followed. (Read the part about the hats, shirts and and chairs for the subjects. What they actually did was much better than what the protocol called for.)
 
The protocol specified that each group would have 5 subjects with both kidneys and 1 subject with just one kidney. But, as CZ points out, we don't know whether that was followed.

You are right. At this point, we don't know. All we know is what is in the protocol that VfF was supposed to read and sign. I don't see the advantage in telling VfF what was going on behind the scenes. They could have published their behind the scenes methods here, but that would be the same as telling her. They could have given the names and addresses of each subject here so everyone could triple check, but that would have been completely destructive to the protocol.

Why not use the ultrasound machine on all subjects after the test?

Maybe they were paying per subject or per kidney for the test. I don't see how it really matters. The only info it would give us is that maybe (if the 750 number is correct) VfF had two chances to be right in a single trial instead of one chance. But no matter how many chances she had, she still failed. It appears that she got one bonifide hit that she could easily have gotten by chance, but she failed the test. I suppose it would have been fun to ultrasound everyone, but it's kind of like polling the audience. Yeah, it's fun, but it doesn't really change anything.

Not only was the protocol poorly designed, it wasn't even followed. (Read the part about the hats, shirts and and chairs for the subjects. What they actually did was much better than what the protocol called for.)

The hats, shirts and chairs section describes parameters that would be used. VfF signed off on those parameters and it appears that IIG was well within those parameters with what they chose. It sounds like you like the choices that they made there, but they are not specifically spelled out in the protocol. But everything they did (in this case) was what the protocol called for. They could have gone a different direction and still been within the protocol, but instead they went a direction that you like and yet you quibble.

Ward
 
Maybe they were paying per subject or per kidney for the test.
Just a minor comment. I talked to the technician afterward and she charges by the hour. And it was Anita who was footing the bill, not the IIG. They take the same stance as Randi - the claimant must pay a test-related bills.
 
If her performance was within what could be expected from chance, how would knowing the audience's performance help answer the question?
"Expected from chance" is not quite as clearly defined as you might think. Again, if Anita had correctly identified all three of the people in the test who were missing a kidney and correctly identified for two of the three which kidney it was, would that result have been "expected from chance"? It appears that, according to many here, the answer would be yes (and they would still be chortling: SHE FAILED, SHE FAILED, NA NA NA NA, THE LYING B**** FAILED!) However, such a performance would have been well in excess of the generally accepted P=.05 (probability of 5% or less that the result was due to chance) criterion used to accept or reject a hypothesis. Now, her actual performance wasn't in excess of P=.05, but it wasn't far from it. So, it should be of interest to any true skeptic as to how she managed to do as well as she did.* If, as suggested by some, there were clues from the subjects, those clues should also have permitted a number of audience members to do as well as she did.

* Yes, I understand that, relative to her claims, Anita's performance was disappointing. And I further understand that she agreed to the test protocol. But the issue that should be of interest is whether she has any paranormal ability, even if it's not nearly as great as she thinks it is.
 
So, it should be of interest to any true skeptic as to how she managed to do as well as she did.

Why? (At least the 3rd time I'm asking.)

Why should that be of any more interest than the possibility that she has the power to levitate?

Her claim was falsified. You're trying to suggest that some claim she never made might explain the result better than chance. Why?

Why don't you suspect that Zeus controlled her hand resulting in her one correct response?
 
Originally Posted by Rodney
If she had correctly identified all three of the people in the test who were missing a kidney and correctly identified for two of the three which kidney it was, she also would have failed. The question that should be of interest to a skeptic is whether she identified two of the three who were missing a kidney solely through chance or by some other means. Knowing how the audience did as a whole may help answer that question.



The question that was of interest was, "Can Vision from Vision from Feeling pass the demonstration according to the agreed upon protocol?"

The question is answered. She couldn't.

I think the best answer to this conundrum may be that this isn't a "question that should be of interest to a skeptic, but a question that may be of interest to Rodney (and to any other individual who is, well, interested in it.) I'm not saying that the question ends up making sense, but I think I can see why it's being asked. I do agree that if there had been results significantly different from chance, even if these weren't results that exactly matched the prediction she made, then they clearly would have been worth following up on under a number of circumstances and for a variety of reasons. If 1000 completely random people were paraded past Anita on the stage and she correctly picked out the one who was missing a kidney but wrongly identified the side, I highly doubt we all would have abandoned this discussion simply because she didn't fulfill the exact terms of the protocol. (And can anyone honestly say that if Anita had suddenly and unexpectedly started levitating three feet off the stage during the test, then that anomaly shouldn't have been investigated just because it wasn't part of her original claim?) We wouldn't know if these results were significant or not, because it's true that they wouldn't exactly match the paranormal ability she'd claimed to possess. What I think we would know is that something was worth checking out, investigating, and/or following up on further. Correctly identifying the one person out of one thousand with a missing kidney would not be exactly the same as doing that in addition to also picking the correct side, but it is also not completely unrelated. Levitation is not related to seeing missing kidneys, but it is not a normal ability, so we'd want to find out what was actually going on.

So I think I sort of see what Rodney is arguing here, but only in a theoretical sense. The fatal flaw in a practical application of the argument, of course, is that I don't see how it can be said that there was anything at all about the actual results of the test that demonstrated any kind of "paranormal" powers on Anita's part. There was nothing about her performance which fell much outside the parameters of chance. There was nothing that merited further investigation. There wasn't even anything vaguely interesting.
 
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According to me, the claim is not falsified. Yet.

According to the test it is. But you're entitled to your opinion.

How did I know that trials 1 and 3 would be wrong?

Hedging. Don't be ashamed of that, we all do it. I think it's natural.


And how did I know that trial 2 would be correct?

You didn't. You used your inherent ability to cold read, and hedged your bets. Well done!

I say "inherent ability" tongue in cheek. That's your claim. The tests showed you didn't even display that. The tests showed you were basically on par with anyone taken off the streets. Which is what they should have done. They should have taken 5 people off the street. That, and a couple of magic 8 balls with "1,2,3" and "L,R"

I respectfully suggest your next challenge is to get a seat on the WSOP (World Series Of Poker). You've got the look and your science background suggests you should know your odds. If you can parley your ability into reading a bluff you stand a good chance of making some serious bling.
 
I do agree that if there had been results significantly different from chance, even if these weren't results that matched the prediction she made, then they clearly would have been worth following up on. If 1000 completely random people were paraded past Anita on the stage and she correctly picked out the one who was missing a kidney but wrongly identified the side, I highly doubt we all would have abandoned this discussion

The protocol was supposed to have been designed to address the claim and nothing else. The result you suggest of getting the one person correct out of 1000 was impossible since there were only a total of 18 subjects involved in this protocol.

So basically you're asking whether if Anita had taken a different test altogether and and failed it, would we be interested in further testing. The protocol you describe (one missing kidney out of 2000 kidney slots) would be a particularly bad way to test the claim Anita made. It would have been a way (not a good way) to test a different claim: that she can identify a person who is missing a kidney.

I'm reminded of the saying, "If I had some ham I could have ham and eggs if I had some eggs."
 
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Rodney said:
* Yes, I understand that, relative to her claims, Anita's performance was disappointing. And I further understand that she agreed to the test protocol. But the issue that should be of interest is whether she has any paranormal ability, even if it's not nearly as great as she thinks it is.
Do you think that Anita demonstrated any paranormal ability in this test/demonstration? Do you believe that she can sometimes see the insides of people's bodies and detect the presence or absence of major organs, along with disease or other indicators of health or illness? Or do you think it more likely that she hedged her bets by always guessing left, and used cold reading techniques to guess the target member in each group?

Even according to Anita's own interpretations, the only two "hits" she's ever made were Dr. Carlson, which she failed to write down until he informed her he was missing a kidney, and the target in the second group in California. I haven't yet watched the video, but I've read some indications that the particular target was most fidgety of all three one-kidney targets. (Someone who's watched may be able to confirm that.)

There's absolutely no indication from this demonstration or from any other demonstration that Anita has performed in the past to indicate that she has x-ray vision. She cannot see inside of people.
 
I'm reminded of the saying, "If I had some ham I could have ham and eggs if I had some eggs."

Pretty much. Here's a frying pan. :)

Actually, what I was trying to do was to understand where Rodney's argument was coming from, and as far as I can tell, that's basically the direction. Anita has made a lot of different claims, and none of them has stood up to any kind of a test. If any of them somehow miraculously did at this point-- including the ones that have been long-discarded as subjects for controlled tests-- then yes, they would be worth following up on. (What do you want to bet that levitation is going to be the next claim?) But this has never happened, and there's less than absolutely no reason to think it ever will. Because of that, this can't be anything but a theoretical argument.
 
.......... So, it should be of interest to any true skeptic as to how she managed to do as well as she did.*

She didn't do well at all, based on her claim ... Why should skeptics be interested in guessing games ?

If, as suggested by some, there were clues from the subjects, those clues should also have permitted a number of audience members to do as well as she did.
Not if they are not skilled at cold reading. Are you aware that any of them claim to be ?

* Yes, I understand that, relative to her claims, Anita's performance was disappointing. And I further understand that she agreed to the test protocol. But the issue that should be of interest is whether she has any paranormal ability, even if it's not nearly as great as she thinks it is.

We have been interested in her claimed paranormal ability for over a year now..

There has been no indication ( no demonstration ) that she has any ...

Why should we remain interested ?
 
"Expected from chance" is not quite as clearly defined as you might think. Again, if Anita had correctly identified all three of the people in the test who were missing a kidney and correctly identified for two of the three which kidney it was, would that result have been "expected from chance"?


"Expected from chance" is a mathematical construct, not some kind of subjective "close, but no cigar" thing that you keep insisting it should be. Say there were twelve opaque jars, all but one of which contained an apple. Say Anita's test was to pick the one empty jar from that row of twelve jars. Say she picked the jar next to the empty jar, in three such tests in succession. Would that have had any significance? No. She picked the wrong jar.

It appears that, according to many here, the answer would be yes (and they would still be chortling: SHE FAILED, SHE FAILED, NA NA NA NA, THE LYING B**** FAILED!) However, such a performance would have been well in excess of the generally accepted P=.05 (probability of 5% or less that the result was due to chance) criterion used to accept or reject a hypothesis. Now, her actual performance wasn't in excess of P=.05, but it wasn't far from it. So, it should be of interest to any true skeptic as to how she managed to do as well as she did.* If, as suggested by some, there were clues from the subjects, those clues should also have permitted a number of audience members to do as well as she did.


There is no partial credit for picking the jar next to the empty jar. And nothing about which jars the audience might have picked has anything to do with it. The odds of randomly picking the right or wrong jar can be easily calculated. Those odds would apply even if she did the test out in the middle of a desert where there was no audience.

* Yes, I understand that, relative to her claims, Anita's performance was disappointing. And I further understand that she agreed to the test protocol. But the issue that should be of interest is whether she has any paranormal ability, even if it's not nearly as great as she thinks it is.


Picking the jar with the apple in it, which just happened to be next to the empty jar, wouldn't demonstrate a little bit of paranormal ability. It would be a wrong guess. It would demonstrate that she was unable to support her claim. Anita's performance wasn't disappointing relative to her claim. It was an utter failure. Anything less than picking the correct jar, the empty jar, each and every time, would have been an utter failure.
 
"Expected from chance" is not quite as clearly defined as you might think. Again, if Anita had correctly identified all three of the people in the test who were missing a kidney and correctly identified for two of the three which kidney it was, would that result have been "expected from chance"? It appears that, according to many here, the answer would be yes (and they would still be chortling: SHE FAILED, SHE FAILED, NA NA NA NA, THE LYING B**** FAILED!) However, such a performance would have been well in excess of the generally accepted P=.05 (probability of 5% or less that the result was due to chance) criterion used to accept or reject a hypothesis.

I'm not an expert in statistics, but I'm just wondering, can we even make an assessment of "expected by chance" based on one trial? It seems to me that ideally that would require hundreds (if not more) trials.

Now, her actual performance wasn't in excess of P=.05, but it wasn't far from it.

Could you please explain how could I calculate her actual performance (and it's P value)? ETA: Nevermind, I figured it out... Still, I think it is meaningless without multiple trials.

So, it should be of interest to any true skeptic as to how she managed to do as well as she did.* If, as suggested by some, there were clues from the subjects, those clues should also have permitted a number of audience members to do as well as she did.

I agree, with the mention that I'd have to see her perform like on the IIG test on several occasions at least.
 
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Anita actually managed to confirm publicly the true nature of her abilities. She is the poster child for Confirmation Bias, Postdiction, and Turning Misses into Hits. Let's look at her history.
Lactobacillus Testing
She claimed to have success, but her protocol was horrible. When she changed her protocol to what was suggested here, the ability disappeared. She then began changing the protocol by making it easier for her to guess. After a few successes, she quit and refused to ever test it again because a mere 10 minutes of testing would make her ill.

Perceptions via Photos & Videos
She claimed great accuracy with this at first. A few of us, myself included, submitted pictures for her to read. She failed miserably. When I offered that there was an additional ailment I failed to list, she tried to claim that she detected that but didn't say it. Turns out I had confused whether it was my left or right wrist, so her postdiction was wrong anyway. After this fiasco she refused to do anymore tests like this because it's not her "strongest" claim.

Crushed Pills
She agreed to a test to identify crushed pills mailed to her by Pup. She was given the names of the four medicines. After receiving them, she demanded reference samples despite agreeing to the protocol in advance. She claimed she could not afford the $10 to buy them on her own (nor could she ask anyone for aspirin or Ibuprofen). She later claimed that she could not complete the test, especially since she perceived that two were similar. She neglected to mention that she knew the chemicals by name, so of course she knew two were similar. She never offered *which* two were similar.

Readings at FACT
She tried to turn misses into hits by saying she detected someone's Adam's apple. She also changed her reading for "Heather" from Anxiety to Excitement and gave it a "1" instead of a "2 or higher" because she was being "modest" and didn't want to offend the woman who willingly volunteered to be read. Of course, she missed things like Wayne's huge scar from surgery.

Dr. Carlson's Kidney
We all know the story with this one, but the IIG test revealed a new element. Apparently she *lied* about the results because she was worried that if she was wrong nobody would investigate her other claims. I wonder how many other "perceptions" she has hidden?

Sensing my Wife
In one an exchange over Skype Anita asked if my wife was in the room. Her explanation later was that she wanted to know because she "perceived" her presence but didn't want to tell me that the perception was wrong (my wife wasn't there).

Study
In the weeks leading up to her "study" she grossly mangled the Health Questionnaire in order to grant herself as much wiggle room as possible. She devised a scoring system where just about any guess would be counted as a hit (and nearly drove Ashles insane in the process). The end result is that she scored 3rd out of 4 people. She explained this away as teaching her about the limits of her abilities.

Study on Induced Information
In this self-administered study she tried to detect all sorts of things (clenched fists, hand in water) under various conditions. She did no better than chance. She explained this away as further refinement of an ability she has yet to reliably demonstrate.

Survey
She did a "survey" in the mall where she "read" people. Some of her claims were not factually sound such as claiming that black people have different (from what?) tissues and body chemistry. She dismissed that as just being the way she perceives things.

Reading me at my Desk
She gave me an elaborate reading about how she sees me sitting at my desk. I won't bore you with the details, but it was very detailed and very wrong. Again, it's just her perception.

Diaphragm
She claims she detected a diaphragm in a woman. There was no confirmation, but she believes it.

Ovulation
She claims she detected a woman ovulating. Again, no confirmation, but she believes it.

Talking with Ghosts
She has had multiple conversations with ghosts including Ben Franklin, George Washington, Alexander Hamiltom, Adams (she didn't say which one) and Abraham Lincoln. She shared the lengthy conversation with Hamilton and concluded by telling me, "However, at least I'm *as good* as the other psychic mediums out there who attempt to talk to spirits. Combining that with skepticism, maybe I can debunk this whole thing."

The Real Reason She Persists
In one of our many conversations where I was pushing her to seek professional help she said, "I don't want to be told that they're [perceptions] not allowed." She went further and said, "If I see and feel ghosts then I want to be entitled to that."

I said, "So, you are afraid that you would be considered mentally ill because those things are not real?"

She replied, "I guess so. I just feel that I am entitled to be the way I am."

Look at the big picture. It seems that Anita is always having some sort of perception about something. She reveals them when she thinks she might be "right" if it is spun properly. She keeps quiet when she might be wrong. She accepts as fact many of these unconfirmed experiences though she denies it. When confronted with contrary evidence she either spins and/or refuses to accept the results.

The reality is that deep down she knows she has two choices: Either these things are real or she is making it all up in her head. She knows what a mental health professional would say, but she doesn't want to face it. She says that she is not a "danger" to anyone she should be "entitled" to her "subjective perceptions" that are above and beyond reality.

Should we Drop it?
At this point I'm thinking that she is beyond help. She has been thoroughly debunked. When the IIG puts the full data on-line, I will use it to create a comprehensive examination of her claims. Meanwhile, her classmates and the faculty at UNCC have seen first-hand what is going on.

Anybody searching for the name Anita Ikonen will find my website as the first link, so I doubt she stands much of a chance of getting a foothold in building up a career in woo. Most Believers acknowledge that at least *some* psychics are frauds, and I think my site will convince those people. It won't have much effect on the True Believers, but what does?

I invited Anita to a live chat on my board, but I have not heard back. What I would like to do is have one final chat, and then drop it. I'd be interested to hear what others think.
 
... Now, her actual performance wasn't in excess of P=.05, but it wasn't far from it. So, it should be of interest to any true skeptic as to how she managed to do as well as she did...
It was in excess of .05. It was greater than the probability of tossing a coin 10 times and getting 7 hits on your prediction.
 
Well, look who snuck in when we weren't looking. Congratulations, UncaYimmy. Congratualtions, JREF. Everyone's a winner.

Ward
 
Great summary, UncaYimmy! You do have to admit, she scored a hit on this one...

"However, at least I'm *as good* as the other psychic mediums out there who attempt to talk to spirits."

;)

I've known a lot of people like Anita, and I think she would benefit most from taking some quiet time and sorting out her feelings and emotions. Psychopharmacology and therapy might also help. To channel her creative side (and she clearly does have one), she should start writing fiction. Maybe she could create a character who uses her paranormal "vision from feeling" abilities to solve murder mysteries?
 
Another interesting quote from Anita's interview with Paranormal Review about the (then) upcoming Demonstration:

"The experience I had of detecting that a kidney is missing represents the very best of what my paranormal claim can do, and so if tests show that I can’t do this with missing kidneys, I can’t do it with anything else either."

If this girl is seriously studying physics with a view to a career, she really needs to learn and understand what the scientific method is really about - and take a few lessons from Richard Feynman.

Instead it looks like she may be angling for an entertainer's license, or perhaps going into quackery...
 

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