The VFF Test is On!

Great summary, UncaYimmy! You do have to admit, she scored a hit on this one...



;)

I've known a lot of people like Anita, and I think she would benefit most from taking some quiet time and sorting out her feelings and emotions. Psychopharmacology and therapy might also help. To channel her creative side (and she clearly does have one), she should start writing fiction. Maybe she could create a character who uses her paranormal "vision from feeling" abilities to solve murder mysteries?
Actually, that sounds like a good idea.
 
Great summary, UncaYimmy! You do have to admit, she scored a hit on this one...



;)

I've known a lot of people like Anita, and I think she would benefit most from taking some quiet time and sorting out her feelings and emotions. Psychopharmacology and therapy might also help. To channel her creative side (and she clearly does have one), she should start writing fiction. Maybe she could create a character who uses her paranormal "vision from feeling" abilities to solve murder mysteries?
It's been done -Psych, a phony psychic detective who uses his mundane powers of observation to solve crimes.
 
The party is over- the guests have gone home, the place is awash with wine spills and reeks of stale cigarette smoke.
The stage is empty, bereft of the people, lights and cameras crowding it. As I stumble around the half dark theatre looking for my dignity, my mind races to come up with the solution to the particular problem I now face.

Although I held the charade all the way through the performance, it was a dismal flop in this neck of the woods.
As I am pondering my dilemma, it becomes clear to me what must now be done.
The caravan should be packed tightly and neatly, supplies gathered for an extended journey, fresh spiels designed and practised. I am ready.


The creaking wheels turn slowly, and as I travel further away from this place, with it's glittering lights and broken dreams, I sit up front with my chin lifted in defiance.
For I know where I must go- without shame or embarrasssment as my companions.
The well paved road of delusional dishonesty will lead me to the kingdom of woo, where I shall find the believers.
I shall sit on the ruby encrusted throne as queen, while my subjects kneel before me. The helpless ones grovel in gratitude at my all knowing, all mysterious, one of a kind powers.

I shall rule the universe with confidence and supreme arrogance as the show that flopped fades away to a never remembered dream.
 
...* Yes, I understand that, relative to her claims, Anita's performance was disappointing. And I further understand that she agreed to the test protocol. But the issue that should be of interest is whether she has any paranormal ability, even if it's not nearly as great as she thinks it is.


Based on the information in UncaYimmy's excellent post, and Anita's reluctance to conduct the very, very simple test (suggested in one of these threads, but I forget by whom –– sorry) of identifying gases in a container, why should anyone continue to have any interest in discovering whether she has any paranormal ability?
 
Maia, I get what you're trying to say about when something interesting might crop up in test that was otherwise failed. I think your point depends on the word "if."
 
The Real Reason She Persists
In one of our many conversations where I was pushing her to seek professional help she said, "I don't want to be told that they're [perceptions] not allowed." She went further and said, "If I see and feel ghosts then I want to be entitled to that."

I said, "So, you are afraid that you would be considered mentally ill because those things are not real?"

She replied, "I guess so. I just feel that I am entitled to be the way I am."

Look at the big picture. It seems that Anita is always having some sort of perception about something. She reveals them when she thinks she might be "right" if it is spun properly. She keeps quiet when she might be wrong. She accepts as fact many of these unconfirmed experiences though she denies it. When confronted with contrary evidence she either spins and/or refuses to accept the results.

The reality is that deep down she knows she has two choices: Either these things are real or she is making it all up in her head. She knows what a mental health professional would say, but she doesn't want to face it. She says that she is not a "danger" to anyone she should be "entitled" to her "subjective perceptions" that are above and beyond reality.

This is the dilemma she faces. She believes that all these perceptions relate in some way to reality. We have no way to prove that she did not talk to the Founding Fathers of the United States. We have no way to prove that she did not really really see Dr. Carlson's kidney or any other the other perceptions that she says she's had.

And she seems to have a strong desire to have the perceptions in the first place. And I don't think it's just for attention. I think UncaYimmy's right and that she has them all the time and only reports them when she thinks they might have some bearing on reality. But whether she reports them or not, she enjoys having them. That's why she wants to be entitled to them.

I think the real problem is that she likes them so much, she does not know the difference between the perceptions and her self perception. I think she feels that if she loses these perceptions, she loses herself. She loses her identity. In effect, her perceptions are her. In the same way that if any of us lost all five of our senses, what would we have left? I think that's how she feels.

But she feels OK to live in this world where she sees things that other people do not. She sees and believes them and they are real---it's just that other people cannot see them, but they are all really there.

Now she takes the test at IIG. She sees a kidney. She sees it again. She makes an X by it. She makes four Xs by it. She sees it. But it's not there. The person can show her the scar where it was removed. The ultrasound machine can show the empty spot where it once was.

Now she knows, and we know, and she knows that we know that she sees things that are not there.

Maybe Ben Franklin has a ghost. Maybe she's seen and spoken with him. Maybe that was all real. But the kidney was not real. And she saw it. How can this not call into question all the other unusual things she sees?

This is a real existential problem for her. She now must decide what's real with every unusual perception she has. "Is that ghost real, or is it like that kidney I saw that was not there? It seems real and it even talks to me, but I saw that kidney four times, and it wasn't there."

She is a science student and she's a good student. That student now has to explore this.

Enough armchair psychology from me.

Ward
 
Tune: Jackson Browne, "The Load-Out"

Now the seats are all empty
Clear the kidneys from the stage
Pack 'em up and tear it down

They're the strongest claim, and the last to fail
Workin' on that IIG stage
She'll set it up in another town

Today the skeptics were so fine
They waited there on line
And when they got that li-ive feed, it made the show

And that was sweet, but she can hear the sound
Of slamming doors and folding chairs
And that's a sound they'll never know

So roll them t-shirts up and get those hats
Shut the scanner down and put it on the ramp
'Cause when it comes to scammery
You know Anita's the champ
But when the last volunteer's walked away
You know that she still wants to play
So just make sure you skeptics do your best
Before she crows about her test...

ETA: I see Hokulele had the same general idea. Nice work. :)
 
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Anyhow, I think I am done here. If there is another test later on, I will update my conclusions then.


"And now the end is near
And so I face the final curtain
My friend I'll say it clear
I'll state my case of which I'm certain

I've lived a life that's full
I traveled each and every highway
And more, much more than this"

(all together now, everyone)

"I did it my way"
 
I think the real problem is that she likes them so much, she does not know the difference between the perceptions and her self perception. I think she feels that if she loses these perceptions, she loses herself. She loses her identity. In effect, her perceptions are her. In the same way that if any of us lost all five of our senses, what would we have left? I think that's how she feels.

All five? How about just one? I'd could cope with that, although it could be somewhat devastating...

Anyway, I feel you got a valid point there. The fear (phobia?) of admitting one's wrong is not to be underestimated. Especially when the self-delusion has been going on long enough.
 
Yes, losing one of my five senses would really blow. But my point by suggesting losing all five is that's how I think she views this. I think she believes her very existence will end if her special perceptions end. I think it's far deeper than just admitting being wrong.

Ward
 
"And now the end is near
And so I face the final curtain
My friend I'll say it clear
I'll state my case of which I'm certain

I've lived a life that's full
I traveled each and every highway
And more, much more than this"

(all together now, everyone)

"I did it my way"


And scene! Great job everybody. Don't forget to turn the lights out.
Goodnight, and have a pleasant tomorrow.
(prolly knot)
 
Anita actually managed to confirm publicly the true nature of her abilities. She is the poster child for Confirmation Bias, Postdiction, and Turning Misses into Hits. Let's look at her history.
Lactobacillus Testing
She claimed to have success, but her protocol was horrible. When she changed her protocol to what was suggested here, the ability disappeared. She then began changing the protocol by making it easier for her to guess. After a few successes, she quit and refused to ever test it again because a mere 10 minutes of testing would make her ill.

Perceptions via Photos & Videos
She claimed great accuracy with this at first. A few of us, myself included, submitted pictures for her to read. She failed miserably. When I offered that there was an additional ailment I failed to list, she tried to claim that she detected that but didn't say it. Turns out I had confused whether it was my left or right wrist, so her postdiction was wrong anyway. After this fiasco she refused to do anymore tests like this because it's not her "strongest" claim.

Crushed Pills
She agreed to a test to identify crushed pills mailed to her by Pup. She was given the names of the four medicines. After receiving them, she demanded reference samples despite agreeing to the protocol in advance. She claimed she could not afford the $10 to buy them on her own (nor could she ask anyone for aspirin or Ibuprofen). She later claimed that she could not complete the test, especially since she perceived that two were similar. She neglected to mention that she knew the chemicals by name, so of course she knew two were similar. She never offered *which* two were similar.

Readings at FACT
She tried to turn misses into hits by saying she detected someone's Adam's apple. She also changed her reading for "Heather" from Anxiety to Excitement and gave it a "1" instead of a "2 or higher" because she was being "modest" and didn't want to offend the woman who willingly volunteered to be read. Of course, she missed things like Wayne's huge scar from surgery.

Dr. Carlson's Kidney
We all know the story with this one, but the IIG test revealed a new element. Apparently she *lied* about the results because she was worried that if she was wrong nobody would investigate her other claims. I wonder how many other "perceptions" she has hidden?

Sensing my Wife
In one an exchange over Skype Anita asked if my wife was in the room. Her explanation later was that she wanted to know because she "perceived" her presence but didn't want to tell me that the perception was wrong (my wife wasn't there).

Study
In the weeks leading up to her "study" she grossly mangled the Health Questionnaire in order to grant herself as much wiggle room as possible. She devised a scoring system where just about any guess would be counted as a hit (and nearly drove Ashles insane in the process). The end result is that she scored 3rd out of 4 people. She explained this away as teaching her about the limits of her abilities.

Study on Induced Information
In this self-administered study she tried to detect all sorts of things (clenched fists, hand in water) under various conditions. She did no better than chance. She explained this away as further refinement of an ability she has yet to reliably demonstrate.

Survey
She did a "survey" in the mall where she "read" people. Some of her claims were not factually sound such as claiming that black people have different (from what?) tissues and body chemistry. She dismissed that as just being the way she perceives things.

Reading me at my Desk
She gave me an elaborate reading about how she sees me sitting at my desk. I won't bore you with the details, but it was very detailed and very wrong. Again, it's just her perception.

Diaphragm
She claims she detected a diaphragm in a woman. There was no confirmation, but she believes it.

Ovulation
She claims she detected a woman ovulating. Again, no confirmation, but she believes it.

Talking with Ghosts
She has had multiple conversations with ghosts including Ben Franklin, George Washington, Alexander Hamiltom, Adams (she didn't say which one) and Abraham Lincoln. She shared the lengthy conversation with Hamilton and concluded by telling me, "However, at least I'm *as good* as the other psychic mediums out there who attempt to talk to spirits. Combining that with skepticism, maybe I can debunk this whole thing."

The Real Reason She Persists
In one of our many conversations where I was pushing her to seek professional help she said, "I don't want to be told that they're [perceptions] not allowed." She went further and said, "If I see and feel ghosts then I want to be entitled to that."

I said, "So, you are afraid that you would be considered mentally ill because those things are not real?"

She replied, "I guess so. I just feel that I am entitled to be the way I am."

Look at the big picture. It seems that Anita is always having some sort of perception about something. She reveals them when she thinks she might be "right" if it is spun properly. She keeps quiet when she might be wrong. She accepts as fact many of these unconfirmed experiences though she denies it. When confronted with contrary evidence she either spins and/or refuses to accept the results.

The reality is that deep down she knows she has two choices: Either these things are real or she is making it all up in her head. She knows what a mental health professional would say, but she doesn't want to face it. She says that she is not a "danger" to anyone she should be "entitled" to her "subjective perceptions" that are above and beyond reality.

Should we Drop it?
At this point I'm thinking that she is beyond help. She has been thoroughly debunked. When the IIG puts the full data on-line, I will use it to create a comprehensive examination of her claims. Meanwhile, her classmates and the faculty at UNCC have seen first-hand what is going on.

Anybody searching for the name Anita Ikonen will find my website as the first link, so I doubt she stands much of a chance of getting a foothold in building up a career in woo. Most Believers acknowledge that at least *some* psychics are frauds, and I think my site will convince those people. It won't have much effect on the True Believers, but what does?

I invited Anita to a live chat on my board, but I have not heard back. What I would like to do is have one final chat, and then drop it. I'd be interested to hear what others think.

"I see banned people!" :D
 
Nice one, 3bodyproblem.
Since the test (all hail the IIG, by the way) wasn't about perceiving WHO was missing a kidney, but rather detecting the absense of a kidney, AI failed spectacularly.
I was astonished to hear AI say afterward she didn't know what to think about the results.
As for showing her 'notes' to the camera, well, it was a painfully embarrassing moment, as was the moment when it became obvious AI was no longer the centre of att., but rather were the commentaries on the woman's publicly broadcast presentation of a total lack of paranormal abilities.
So.
AI is no longer a paranormal claimant- who's the next to claim the title?
 
Nice one, 3bodyproblem.
Since the test (all hail the IIG, by the way) wasn't about perceiving WHO was missing a kidney, but rather detecting the absense of a kidney, AI failed spectacularly.
I was astonished to hear AI say afterward she didn't know what to think about the results.

Astonished? Really? Have you been paying attention?
 
Rodney, I know you enjoy looking for significance in the noise, but that's not how science works. Anita already thought she saw something in the noise, so much so that she spent a thousand dollars to see if there was anything significant. There wasn't. This was but one test in a long series of observations, surveys, studies and tests. None of them have panned out.

You also fail to demonstrate the understanding that people are not random objects. The odds for Anita's test were based on the best (and impossible) case that there is no information that makes a particular person/kidney more or less likely to be chosen. On the contrary there is the very reasonable expectation that during nearly 30 minutes of observation that an astute observer, which it seems Anita clearly is, would be able to pick up on clues for or against an individual being the target.

I have observational skills that I believe are comparable to Anita's. People have commented on the uncanny way I seem to "know" things. Sometimes I don't immediately realize why I know them, but upon reflection I can usually figure it out.

For example, I was at a restaurant once and commented to the hostess, "So, this is your first day?"

"Yes, it is. Do you come here a lot?"

"Nope, never been here before."

"How did you know?"

"Well, you seemed a bit unsure of yourself and nervous. I also watched you light all of the candles to be distributed to the tables. You lit the ones closest to you first and had to avoid burning yourself while lighting the ones in the back. You only do that once."

The difference between myself and Anita is that I look for the ordinary and mundane without creating fantasies about my observations.
 
It was in excess of .05.
Yes -- barely.

It was greater than the probability of tossing a coin 10 times and getting 7 hits on your prediction.
No. I just did a precise calculation of Anita in the test getting at least two people right and at least one location right purely by chance. It works out to be 49/864, which equals 5.67%. The odds of getting 7 hits in 10 coin tosses is much greater -- 17.19%.
 
You are right. At this point, we don't know. All we know is what is in the protocol that VfF was supposed to read and sign. I don't see the advantage in telling VfF what was going on behind the scenes. They could have published their behind the scenes methods here, but that would be the same as telling her. They could have given the names and addresses of each subject here so everyone could triple check, but that would have been completely destructive to the protocol.
The point of having a protocol is that there should be no "behind the scenes methods". No one was trying to cause VFF to fail by trickery or doing anything other than what was agreed on in the protocol.


I don't see how it really matters. The only info it would give us is that maybe (if the 750 number is correct) VfF had two chances to be right in a single trial instead of one chance.
So it does matter. It would change the probability calculation.

But no matter how many chances she had, she still failed. It appears that she got one bonifide hit that she could easily have gotten by chance, but she failed the test.
I agree with you there.

But it was still a poor protocol, and I'm pretty sure the only reason they kept it under wraps was to avoid the criticism.

The hats, shirts and chairs section describes parameters that would be used. VfF signed off on those parameters and it appears that IIG was well within those parameters with what they chose.
No, she didn't. The protocol said that the subjects should wear similar light-colored t-shirts or blouses (not identical light blue t-shirts), and that they "may" wear hats or head coverings (not that they all must wear identical hats and head coverings).

It sounds like you like the choices that they made there, but they are not specifically spelled out in the protocol.
Yes, and I've said as much.

But everything they did (in this case) was what the protocol called for.
No it wasn't. The protocol did not call for them to wear identical shirts and identical head coverings and to be seated identically such that they could rest against the padded chair backs. Yes, I'm glad that's how they did it, but that wasn't part of the protocol.
 
The odds for Anita's test were based on the best (and impossible) case that there is no information that makes a particular person/kidney more or less likely to be chosen. On the contrary there is the very reasonable expectation that during nearly 30 minutes of observation that an astute observer, which it seems Anita clearly is, would be able to pick up on clues for or against an individual being the target.
If you're right, it was a mistake to conduct the test. But weren't there also some astute observers in the audience? That's why I want to know how the audience did as a whole.
 

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