The Unofficial Election 2016 Results Thread PLEASE

Interesting bit of polling data from ABC(reposted on the BBC live page):

Prelim exit poll data is in. Interesting factoid: 75% of voters decided their vote more than a month
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If correct that's probably very bad for Trump.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
I would say that having non-Germans in Germany didn't work out very well, did it?

It ultimately ended up tearing the country apart. It is about to again.
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Having German people in Germany didn't work out so well for them either, now did it. :rolleyes:
 
Meadmaker said:
Heavy turnout reported in Michigan counties that supported Romney last time around.

I keep trying to figure out if this is good news for Trump. I'm imagining someone who doesn't normally vote, but decides this year that he or she will vote. Is it because there is finally a candidate that says the things they have been waiting for? A candidate who isn't like all the others? Or is it that there's finally a candidate that scares the bejeesus out of them to such an extent that they'll make the effort to vote against them?

In Michigan, we have to wait four more hours to find out, I guess. Whatever the answer, there are apparently a lot of them.
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According to the forecasters, Michigan is pretty secure for Clinton. Excluding 538 and PEC, probabilities in favor of Clinton run from 92% to 100%. Even the timid 538 model has Clinton at 80%.
 
Meadmaker said:
Heavy turnout reported in Michigan counties that supported Romney last time around.

I keep trying to figure out if this is good news for Trump. I'm imagining someone who doesn't normally vote, but decides this year that he or she will vote. Is it because there is finally a candidate that says the things they have been waiting for? A candidate who isn't like all the others? Or is it that there's finally a candidate that scares the bejeesus out of them to such an extent that they'll make the effort to vote against them?

In Michigan, we have to wait four more hours to find out, I guess. Whatever the answer, there are apparently a lot of them.
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I have downloaded Pierre-Antoine Kremp's open-source forecast tool (details here), which is based on the Drew Linzer's model used oat Daily Kos. Kremp's model, which is giving Clinton a 90% probability of winning, can be updated as states' results are called. The model gives Clinton a 92% chance of winning Michigan; however, according to the model, if Clinton loses Michigan, her chances of winning the election drop all the way down to 28%.
 
And so it begins, Vermont for Clinton, Indiana and Kentucky for trump, basically telling us, pretty much nothing.
 
Time to turn on Fox for the giggles. They've got Indiana on the board and with the only counting being in IN and KY so far, Trump with a considerable popular vote lead.

(I have to lose an hour getting my kid off to school. If Hannity melts down during the next 80 minutes, someone bookmark it for me.)
 
First handful of "official" calls from CNN starting to trickle in.

Kentucky and Indiana for Trump, Vermont for Clinton. Those were pretty much gimmes going in so no real news.
 
Trump winning 19 to 3 on CNN at the moment.
Pundits predicting Trump is winning in the key indicator counties in various states
 
Dubya didn't vote for Trump (nor Clinton). No living president voted for Trump, apparently.

The BBC says Clinton 3 (VT) Trump 19 (IN and KY) but these are still projections, yes? It's so different to our system that I am finding it strange.
 
pgwenthold said:
Does the election go the way of Florida? Especially if Clinton wins, I would think.

Isn't Florida one of those that Trump "has to have" to win?
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It is basically over for Donald if he loses Florida. Hillary could lose it and still win.
 
West Virginia to Trump according to CNN projection so he hss 24 to Clinton 3
 
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