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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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I dunno. It seems there is a really huge power gap between NATO and Russia. Sure, Russia would be in a better logistical and morale position, defending against a NATO attack.

But on the other hand, they'd be defending against a NATO attack. Ukraine's ability to touch the Russian rail system is extremely limited, by the weapons available to them and by the taboo against striking into Russian territory. Remove those limitations, and NATO would almost certainly eliminate the Russian's logistical strengths within the first week of fighting.

And while the morale strength means the Russians would fight harder, and in greater numbers of volunteers, they wouldn't fight better. It seems pretty clear at this point that NATO has more than enough excess capacity to absorb literally any number of highly-motivated but poorly trained and poorly equipped Russian soldiers.
 
Just saw a headline about Putin declaring martial law in the areas of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed. What, if anything, does this mean? Any impact on anyone or anything?
 
Putin has declared martial law in the "new provinces" that he annexed. This is practically speaking a completely meaningless gesture as the area occupied by the Russians in Ukraine (with the exception of Crimea) has effectively been under "martial law" since they seized control. The Russians who control these areas have largely been acting without any accountability to anything other than Putin.

The same applies to him ordering a "economic mobilization" of the provinces bordering Ukraine. While in principle this allows the regional heads of local government stronger legal powers to do things to further the war effort, in practice the law has rarely limited their authority when acting on behalf of Putin. The idea that any industries and businesses are going to start making weapons and munitions is just fantasy.

All in all this is just theatrics orchestrated for the purpose of trying to satisfy extreme rabid Russian imperialists, who make up only a small portion of population but are heavily overrepresented in political and military positions. Those people feel that Putin is not doing enough even-though he didn't even have support for starting the war in the first place.
 
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Just saw a headline about Putin declaring martial law in the areas of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed. What, if anything, does this mean? Any impact on anyone or anything?

It means they can seize private property and deport Ukrianians to Russia.

Meanwhile Russia has declared the annexed lands to be under Russia's nuclear protection.
 
Maybe it's a pilot project to make it more palatable when Crimea and possibly the rest of Russia follow suit.
 
It means they can seize private property and deport Ukrianians to Russia.

One might be tempted to ask, couldn't they do that anyways?

And the answer is yes, but...

Putin is a dictator, but in a sense he's not an absolute dictator. He has to maintain the fiction that he's democratically elected. One of the consequences of this is that, even though he can do whatever he wants, he still has to go through the motions.

The other problem he has is that the number of decision makers is actually very small. A lot of stuff has to be delegated to people he doesn't really trust, so he can't afford to give them a lot of decision-making power. This means that they are supposed to follow orders, whatever those orders are, and to a large extent that means following whatever the rules are. You don't get in trouble for following the rules. In practice, this means that even though Putin can make whatever rules he wants (he's a dictator, after all), he still need to make the rules as rules, or his decisions don't percolate down to the lower levels.

So, you want to look Donbass for the state, not just for the soldiers who are sending loot home to their girlfriends? You've got to make a rule to enable it.
 
The next step is obviously martial law and a doubling down of the regime as Russia descends into economic chaos. This will be followed by a North Korea situation, which will only end when/if the population revolts in some bloody rebellion. And maybe China does something to take advantage.


1917 through 1920 in Russia all over again.
 
Musk is really pissing me off. Just because I think positively about Tesla cars and Space-X doesn't mean he's smart about everything. Tesla Solar Company is a joke. So is the Boring Company. Hyperloop is also a joke. His promotion of Mars exploration is selfish and stupid.

And he didn't seem to have studied WW2 an appeasement. MAD is crazy but the Western world cannot just let Russia brutalize neighbor after neighbor until all of Europe is under Russia's control. Appeasement is a terrible idea.

Musk is just like your avatar...unstable genius. Brilliant idea one day, goes batcrap crazy the nest.
 
Good business acumen there. That's what you sell when everything else has been stolen.

Nothing new except it's officers who are doing it instead of noncoms. FOr years a basic fact of life in the Russian aremy was that Noncoms could be bribed to spare you the less pleasent duties.
 
Apparently in ancient times it was often about which side had the strongest champion. Not a lot of logistics, just a bunch of jumped-up villagers standing around while their biggest guy tussled with the other village's biggest guy.

Once the villagers started thinking, who cares about champions, let's just all rush them at once, and then started thinking, let's make all rushing them at once a reliable system for winning battles, that logistics became a major consideration.
 
Apparently in ancient times it was often about which side had the strongest champion. Not a lot of logistics, just a bunch of jumped-up villagers standing around while their biggest guy tussled with the other village's biggest guy.

Once the villagers started thinking, who cares about champions, let's just all rush them at once, and then started thinking, let's make all rushing them at once a reliable system for winning battles, that logistics became a major consideration.

Technology changed a lot of things. Before trains, taking ground was a means to victory. Logistics mattered but was not the most important thing since stealing food and other supplies usually worked. The degree to which units were supplied still mattered. But battles could still be won by bayonets.

By the time the internal combustion engine reaches the battlefield, destroying the enemies means to fight becomes more important that capturing territory. That usually came about by cutting off their supplies. Mostly still happened on the ground. Air and sea interdiction rarely outright stops supplies but does degrade supply and manufacturing.
 
Technology changed a lot of things. Before trains, taking ground was a means to victory. Logistics mattered but was not the most important thing since stealing food and other supplies usually worked. The degree to which units were supplied still mattered. But battles could still be won by bayonets.

By the time the internal combustion engine reaches the battlefield, destroying the enemies means to fight becomes more important that capturing territory. That usually came about by cutting off their supplies. Mostly still happened on the ground. Air and sea interdiction rarely outright stops supplies but does degrade supply and manufacturing.

I'm reading about the hundred years war. Looking at English preparations, logistics were vitally important 600 years ago.
 
Technology changed a lot of things. Before trains, taking ground was a means to victory. Logistics mattered but was not the most important thing since stealing food and other supplies usually worked. The degree to which units were supplied still mattered. But battles could still be won by bayonets.

By the time the internal combustion engine reaches the battlefield, destroying the enemies means to fight becomes more important that capturing territory. That usually came about by cutting off their supplies. Mostly still happened on the ground. Air and sea interdiction rarely outright stops supplies but does degrade supply and manufacturing.

But before trains the worked land couldn't produce enough food to feed both the inhabitants and a large foreign army. Hence why as a soldier in a medieval or early modern army, you were far more likely to die of starvation or diet related disease than by combat. Seriously, a marching army could lose upwards of half its combatants just by having to march 50 miles to engage the enemy in the "right" conditions.
 
Apparently in ancient times it was often about which side had the strongest champion. Not a lot of logistics, just a bunch of jumped-up villagers standing around while their biggest guy tussled with the other village's biggest guy.

Once the villagers started thinking, who cares about champions, let's just all rush them at once, and then started thinking, let's make all rushing them at once a reliable system for winning battles, that logistics became a major consideration.

That is crap. Logistics..feeding your army...was a major factor in Ancient Warfare. Surprised you did not know that.
 
I'm reading about the hundred years war. Looking at English preparations, logistics were vitally important 600 years ago.

They were vitally important in military operations as far back as you care to go.
Rome, for instance, built it system of roads laregly to supply it's legions.
 
Apparently in ancient times it was often about which side had the strongest champion. Not a lot of logistics, just a bunch of jumped-up villagers standing around while their biggest guy tussled with the other village's biggest guy.

Once the villagers started thinking, who cares about champions, let's just all rush them at once, and then started thinking, let's make all rushing them at once a reliable system for winning battles, that logistics became a major consideration.
No, not really. There haven't been many periods in history where major wars were decided by a duel of champions. Smaller arguments yes absolutely, but not major conflicts.
 
Apparently in ancient times it was often about which side had the strongest champion. Not a lot of logistics, just a bunch of jumped-up villagers standing around while their biggest guy tussled with the other village's biggest guy.

Once the villagers started thinking, who cares about champions, let's just all rush them at once, and then started thinking, let's make all rushing them at once a reliable system for winning battles, that logistics became a major consideration.

This is just silly. I suggest you read a book about Ancient Warfare.
 
Scottish press is raising an eyebrow or two about the sudden "loss" of the IT and phone cabling linking the northern isles to the mainland and, seperately, to the Faroes given the damage to the Baltic pipelines recently. Hopefully it's less sinister. Hopefully.
 
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