Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[tyr_13]

The $4,500 per month looks like the cost of the maritime version of Starlink which is the highest tier you can buy. From a military point of view, that's probably what you want. I imagine it offers the best guaranteed bandwidth and works a long way from any ground stations. The latter point would be important if SpaceX is reluctant to build any ground stations in a country currently at war with its neighbour.

If $4,500/month is what it actually costs SpaceX to operate a maritime connection, I'd be gravely concerned for the financial viability of Starlink. But note that it isn't just the operational costs that count: SpaceX probably has some pretty large loans it needs to service since it is not free to put the satellites in space or buy the terminals and you have to have them before you can sell any subscriptions.

That's kind of the point; one can't claim the MSRP is the 'at cost' price and pretend one has a viable business model.

Someone may have 'pointed that out' to him... he recently changed his course on this.

Plus all the government subsidizing that he's been the beneficiary of.


The entire thing also has lesser shades of the losses music companies claimed happened because of piracy. The fact is that one cannot assume that any non-physical item 'stolen' or given away would have been purchased instead. The hardware is a different story entirely (and at least 85% funded by other entities), but the costs of operating the satellites already exists. The extra costs of operating in Ukraine are not, cannot, be the full amount of the retail value.

If the costs of operating as they are in Ukraine were an existential challenge, from loans or operating costs, then Starlink was already almost completely certain to collapse.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Already addressed in the remainder of my post, which you snipped for some reason. Except for the part about credibly threatening Putin's life if he doesn't concede, which is just delusional.

I didn't snip. I posted before you edited. And the only delusion herebis your talk of appeasment.

 

[wobs]

I mean... an analog of that did happen in peace time by the USAAF* over American soil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_Empire_State_Building_B-25_crash

That said, navigation aids have come along ways in 77 years I'm told, but maybe not for Russia?

*SIC

I was thinking more of this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Al_Flight_1862

On 4 October 1992, El Al Flight 1862, a Boeing 747 cargo aircraft of the then state-owned Israeli airline El Al, crashed into the Groeneveen and Klein-Kruitberg flats in the Bijlmermeer (colloquially "Bijlmer") neighbourhood (part of Amsterdam-Zuidoost) of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. The crash is known in Dutch as the Bijlmerramp (Bijlmer disaster).

 

[theprestige]

I didn't snip. I posted before you edited. And the only delusion herebis your talk of appeasment.

Well, I'm not talking about appeasement. So there's that. And I really did address your points in the rest of my post. Sorry we missed each other on that. And the idea of threatening Putin's life as a negotiating tactic really is delusional. Do you have anything else?

 

[eerok]

I thought that this Q&A with Fiona Hill was an interesting read, and more about Putin than Musk. IMO Putin is neither crazy nor unpredictable. He's following a familiar pattern, and even though that includes making nuclear threats, he can't win by actually using nukes, and he knows it.

Putin is probing with useful idiots like Musk to see how the world reacts to making a deal to him that gives him some of what he wants. Of course he'd renege and continue to attack Ukraine in the future, but he'd accept a compromise right now that would mean at least a cease fire in exchange for legitimizing his occupied Ukrainian territory. Obviously this can't be allowed.

Fiona Hill: ‘Elon Musk Is Transmitting a Message for Putin’

 

[The Don]

Looks like Russia is now simply resorting to trying to destroy Ukraine which indicates to me that they've even stopped pretending that they're trying to "liberate" they Ukrainian people from the Nazis in Kyiv.

Right now, even if Ukraine were able to recover all of their territory back to the 2014 borders, they wouldn't be safe at all - Russia could just periodically launch a bunch of missiles and/or unleash an artillery barrage on Ukraine at any time of their choosing.

As theprestige suggested, it could be a very long, very cold, winter for the Ukrainian people if Russia continues to attack, and destroy, their energy infrastructure.

 

[theprestige]

Ah, I see we're back to the crypto-tankie narrative.

 

[gnome]

Regarding Putin's state of mind: Predictable, maybe. Rational? I don't think so. Possibly it was a reasonable error to underestimate Ukraine's resolve during the initial attack. Once their push to Kiev faltered, and it became clear that Ukraine had significant Western backing, and that Russia's field effectiveness was far less than expected, it was not rational to go all-in and keep trying to win that fight.

That would have been an excellent time to come to the negotiating table for a cease-fire. The world knew that Russia could not overwhelm Ukraine swiftly, but it remained to be seen whether a long-term engagement would be in Ukraine's favor. Reluctance on Ukraine's part to test that might have been enough incentive to settle for a return to pre-invasion borders with the "separatist" regions formally still under Ukraine jurisdiction, and Crimea still held by Russia.

Once Ukraine learned that they could not only hold off Russia's forces but also push back, there's very little reason for them not to try and take back Crimea also. Russia had taken a blow to its ability to intimidate, and it was irrational to deplete that entirely trying to chase a victory they realistically could not achieve.

 

[The Don]

Ah, I see we're back to the crypto-tankie narrative.

Nope, just trying to work out how Ukraine will make it through the winter and more importantly, what the post-war situation could possibly look like.

Obviously if Ukraine manages to get back to pre-2014 borders AND join NATO (or get some similar assurances regarding territorial integrity) then there's a clear indication as to how they can avoid constant Russian aggression.

BTW, the Wagner Group is still making tiny gains in the Bahkmut region which I guess shows what a well motivated, well trained, well equipped and adequately led force could do (as opposed to the Russian Army and the local militias which appear to be none of those things).

 

[theprestige]

Regarding Putin's state of mind: Predictable, maybe. Rational? I don't think so. Possibly it was a reasonable error to underestimate Ukraine's resolve during the initial attack. Once their push to Kiev faltered, and it became clear that Ukraine had significant Western backing, and that Russia's field effectiveness was far less than expected, it was not rational to go all-in and keep trying to win that fight.

It may be rational with more information. It seems there's a strongly pro-war faction in the government. It's clear the Kadyrovites have some weight in the Kremlin, and wish to keep fighting.

So while cutting his losses and quitting while he's ahead may be rational from a sunk cost fallacy perspective, prolonging the war may be rational from a "keep my power base happy and avoid defenestration" perspective.

 

[Arcade22]

Attacking civilian targets of no military significance will not help Russia. They are trying to do what they did in Syria but the situation in Ukraine is completely different: the Ukrainian military does not rely on civilian power infrastructure to function nor do they require supplies from civilian areas.

They can't starve out Ukrainian soldiers by depriving them of civilian support like they did in Syria.

 

[lobosrul5]

Nope, just trying to work out how Ukraine will make it through the winter and more importantly, what the post-war situation could possibly look like.

Obviously if Ukraine manages to get back to pre-2014 borders AND join NATO (or get some similar assurances regarding territorial integrity) then there's a clear indication as to how they can avoid constant Russian aggression.

BTW, the Wagner Group is still making tiny gains in the Bahkmut region which I guess shows what a well motivated, well trained, well equipped and adequately led force could do (as opposed to the Russian Army and the local militias which appear to be none of those things).

.... or Ukraine is prioritizing other fronts, and happy to let Wagner make some small gains by suffering large amounts of casualties.

Also, my guess is the reason, or part of the reason, the AFU offensives have slowed down is, they're pulling back troops to cover their border with Belarus.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Attacking civilian targets of no military significance will not help Russia. They are trying to do what they did in Syria but the situation in Ukraine is completely different: the Ukrainian military does not rely on civilian power infrastructure to function nor do they require supplies from civilian areas.

They can't starve out Ukrainian soldiers by depriving them of civilian support like they did in Syria.

Basically this. This is really the first time in a while the Russia has had to fight an actual military and not something on the scale of "Barely armed civilian population" to "an insurgency with some military training and organization and equipment."

With Russia not only is the cruelty the point it's also sorta just all they know how to do.

 

[theprestige]

Also, my guess is the reason, or part of the reason, the AFU offensives have slowed down is, they're pulling back troops to cover their border with Belarus.

I'm really hoping that the territorial defense units and the units already allocated to secure the capital are the sufficient provision Ukraine has made for a Belarusian sortie, and that they have no plans at this time to shift additional forces away from their counteroffensive in the east for this contingency.

 

[Aridas]

.... or Ukraine is prioritizing other fronts, and happy to let Wagner make some small gains by suffering large amounts of casualties.

Which keeps them there, both away from more important spots and losing more.

Also, my guess is the reason, or part of the reason, the AFU offensives have slowed down is, they're pulling back troops to cover their border with Belarus.

Weather is important, too.

 

[trustbutverify]

I thought that this Q&A with Fiona Hill was an interesting read, and more about Putin than Musk. IMO Putin is neither crazy nor unpredictable. He's following a familiar pattern, and even though that includes making nuclear threats, he can't win by actually using nukes, and he knows it.

Putin is probing with useful idiots like Musk to see how the world reacts to making a deal to him that gives him some of what he wants. Of course he'd renege and continue to attack Ukraine in the future, but he'd accept a compromise right now that would mean at least a cease fire in exchange for legitimizing his occupied Ukrainian territory. Obviously this can't be allowed.

Fiona Hill: ‘Elon Musk Is Transmitting a Message for Putin’

Putin needs something he can sell as a "win", without it being generally laughed at. This invasion was about Ukraine being decapitated, and a puppet government installed. That effort ended in humiliation, and another one of those in the east might spell the end of the Putin era.

 

[jimbob]

Putin needs something he can sell as a "win", without it being generally laughed at. This invasion was about Ukraine being decapitated, and a puppet government installed. That effort ended in humiliation, and another one of those in the east might spell the end of the Putin era.

minor correction

 

[Drewbot]

Putin needs something he can sell as a "win", without it being generally laughed at. This invasion was about Ukraine being decapitated, and a puppet government installed. That effort ended in humiliation, and another one of those in the east might spell the end of the Putin era.

One of the only outs I see, is that Putin sells this as he was lied to by corrupt people in the Kremlin and Military, and he has used this attack as a way to root out those that were lying to him.

Now the Russian military will be unencumbered by corruption and we will become stronger.

 

[jimbob]

One of the only outs I see, is that Putin sells this as he was lied to by corrupt people in the Kremlin and Military, and he has used this attack as a way to root out those that were lying to him.

Now the Russian military will be unencumbered by corruption and we will become stronger.

That's not really an out. That would be an admission that "Astute KGB-trained Putin" cannot assess data, and can be easily fooled.

A strongman whose grip is slipping

 

[dudalb]

I think the assumption being made that PUtin is still rational is one hell of a big assumption
I think that now acting as a go between for Putin, Musk is just doing more to destroy his reputation. He has alaready lost a lot of his one time fanbase. There are still a few Musk fanboys out there, but there are alot fewer then once they once were.