Ed The Hurricane [or Tropical Storm] Harvey Thread

[Skeptic Ginger]

Having recently been stuck in traffic where a million or so people were leaving the eclipse center line, I get it that evacuating 6 million people wasn't practical. I am curious though, now what?

 

[dudalb]

Yes, I know.

But Vixen was aiming her criticism at the Mayor of Houston, and his jurisdiction only extends to the city as far as I know, so I limited my number to that.

Now she gets to ask why the Governor didn't have the entire Greater Houston MSA evacuated.

I didn't want to rob her of the opportunity. Now you've spoiled it for her.




Believe me, I do understand. I've been through several hurricane events during my years in NC.

More, I expect, than our friend Vixen.




Yup. Sometimes there just isn't anywhere to run to in time.

My comments were not aimed at you......

 

[dudalb]

North Carolina? I have been to Charlotte on my way to Tennessee. The relatives of my hosts in TN were actually caught up in a hurricane headed for Hawaii.

They just hunkered down in a hotel basement until the danger was over.

I can recall Hurricance Ike and the prison governor's refusal to move out prisoners and juvenile delinquents from correction penitentiaries in Galveston.

That was the most scary thing to witness from afar (England). People stubbornly stayed, not believing the media. Many perished in the most frightening conditions, hanging on to tops of trees, etc.

I would have fled Houston whether I could afford it or not.

If whole towns in California can evacuate fires, dam bursts and earthquakes, I don't see that the logistics would be impossible for Houston.

True, Harvey could have been a damp squib.

Oh,please.
If you don't see the difference between evacuating a small town of a few hundred people in the path of a wildfire and evacuating millions of people.then you know nothing about logistics.
Let's just take one thing:Where the hell would they stay?

And this storm is unpredecented. Areas are flooding that no one expected could flood.

 

[dudalb]

And another storm is doing major damage to the Jacksonville, Florida area and is intensifying as it heads toward the Carolina Coast.
What is bad about this is that resources that could be sent to Texas now might be tied up in Carolina.

 

[quadraginta]

My comments were not aimed at you......

I know that. Nor were mine aimed at you.

 

[dudalb]

The City of Houston is now officially asking people with small boats to help in rescue evbacuation operations.
It's Dunkirk 2017.

 

[Civet]

The City of Houston is now officially asking people with small boats to help in rescue evbacuation operations.
It's Dunkirk 2017.

Seems like a smart move to tap that resource.

 

[Vixen]

You've "been to Charlotte".

Congratulations.

Were you in Charlotte while it was being hit by a hurricane?

Have you ever been anywhere while it was being hit by a hurricane?





Good for them. Was an evacuation order in place? Did one need to be?

Which hurricane was this?




How many casualties were there as a result of that decision?




Perhaps you should look more closely at the circumstances of those evacuations. The conditions under which they were imposed. How many people were affected on what time scales. How and why the decisions were made whether or not to evacuate.

It isn't as simple as you imply.




It could have been horrendous and never have threatened Houston enough to warrant an evacuation. There is a lot to be considered before making the commitment of telling millions of people to flee.

Nobody said it was simple. There is no reason a proper well-ordered evacuation could not have been put in place staggered over 48-hours or so.

It is simply WRONG to lie to people and say they should stay put. This is what the occupants of Grenfell Tower were told and it led to the deaths of >80 people. People listen to officials and trust them.

The governor of Texas strongly advised people between Rockport and Houston to evacuate and many took the advice. The mayor of Houston said the opposite, just because there were accidents the last time in 2004 with Hurricane Rita. So the people who drown, are just collateral damage to save the mayor the money and the bother.

All it needs is good planning, with families and the elderly and disabled first.

People should have been offered the choice by the Houston Mayor, not told to 'stay put'.

 

[KatieG]

Because many residents of Houston don't have cars. Even in the outlying areas, public transportation gets folks around. Doesn't get them out of the city or even across the state. I have friends in Austin and San Antonio who say the rains are already causing problems there.

 

[McHrozni]

If whole towns in California can evacuate fires, dam bursts and earthquakes, I don't see that the logistics would be impossible for Houston.

Well, for one, Houston isn't a town.

If you put all people in cars, six apiece, you'd need about 1 million vechiles to take them all out. A typical three line road can cope with perhaps 5000 vechiles an hour going in one direction. Suppose you double that by closing the line the other way and you have 5 such roads available, the evacuation still takes around 20 hours, assuming there are no bottlenecks, such as those from flooding, accidents or roads leading to your destinations being clogged by traffic.

After you've done that, you just have problems with providing about 6 million people with food, water and shelter for the next week or two. The population includes very young, very old and sick, so it's about akin to the effort Germany put in fighting the Eastern front during WW2.

That's a tad difficult to pull off on two days' notice.

McHrozni

 

[quadraginta]

Well, for one, Houston isn't a town.

If you put all people in cars, six apiece, you'd need about 1 million vechiles to take them all out. A typical three line road can cope with perhaps 5000 vechiles an hour going in one direction. Suppose you double that by closing the line the other way and you have 5 such roads available, the evacuation still takes around 20 hours, assuming there are no bottlenecks, such as those from flooding, accidents or roads leading to your destinations being clogged by traffic.

After you've done that, you just have problems with providing about 6 million people with food, water and shelter for the next week or two. The population includes very young, very old and sick, so it's about akin to the effort Germany put in fighting the Eastern front during WW2.

That's a tad difficult to pull off on two days' notice.

McHrozni

They might have been a bit shy about evacuations from Houston after the Hurricane Rita episode, where

Texas reported the most deaths from the hurricane, where 113 deaths were reported, 107 of which were associated with the evacuation of the Houston metropolitan area

Vixen should take note that the Houston evacuations during Rita began well ahead of the hurricane hitting the area, and had been planned in advance with many precautions including separate evacuation zones with separate designated destinations to try and keep the evacuees spread out and contraflow traffic on the Interstates. They had the experience of other evacuations from other storms to build on, but the task of evacuating that many people simply overwhelmed all the precautions they had taken.

Lots of people asked the question, "Would it have been better to simply stay in place and ride out the storm?".

I guess we'll find out.

 

[Vixen]

Well, for one, Houston isn't a town.

If you put all people in cars, six apiece, you'd need about 1 million vechiles to take them all out. A typical three line road can cope with perhaps 5000 vechiles an hour going in one direction. Suppose you double that by closing the line the other way and you have 5 such roads available, the evacuation still takes around 20 hours, assuming there are no bottlenecks, such as those from flooding, accidents or roads leading to your destinations being clogged by traffic.

After you've done that, you just have problems with providing about 6 million people with food, water and shelter for the next week or two. The population includes very young, very old and sick, so it's about akin to the effort Germany put in fighting the Eastern front during WW2.

That's a tad difficult to pull off on two days' notice.

McHrozni

Not all of the six million (or two point six million, specific to Houston) would choose to leave. Choice is the operative word.

People should have been given the full risk factor, as Governor Abbott of Texas provided. One can't help feeling that Democrat Mayor Sylvester Turner instructed Houston residents to 'stay put' just to oppose the Republican advice and bash Trump over the head with 'lack of funds' later.

I have been following the path of this hurricane and from the evidence of previous hurricanes making landfall, I would have certainly moved any elderly, disabled relative out, and young children.

You are looking at five solid days of relentless rain, power cuts and even fires. You need a strong psychological mettle to withstand loss of communcation, electricity, wifi, phone signals.

The weather men very clearly said it was not the winds that were the main problem but the sheer rainfall.

What was the Mayor of Houston thinking when he seemed to give the message all of this would somehow bypass Houston itself? Even I can still remember Ike and I am 7,000 kilometers away.

 

[McHrozni]

Not all of the six million (or two point six million, specific to Houston) would choose to leave. Choice is the operative word.

Sure. But I did the calculation to show how difficult the evacuation of a major metropolitan area (and not just the city) is, not to show the realistic problems with such a massive undertaking are.

You are looking at five solid days of relentless rain, power cuts and even fires. You need a strong psychological mettle to withstand loss of communcation, electricity, wifi, phone signals.

Lack of Wifi in particular is known to cause withdrawal symptoms, yes.

McHrozni

 

[quadraginta]

Not all of the six million (or two point six million, specific to Houston) would choose to leave. Choice is the operative word.

No one was ordered to stay in place. They all still had the choice of leaving.

What the Mayor didn't do was order a mandatory evacuation.

People should have been given the full risk factor, as Governor Abbott of Texas provided.

All the residents of Houston knew exactly what the Governor had said. You act like the information was withheld from them somehow.

It wasn't.

The Mayor of Houston simply disagreed on the wisdom of attempting an evacuation from Houston. Houston had some experience with such efforts. They hadn't gone well.

Plenty of Houston residents still had clear memories of this. It had only been twelve years before.

One can't help feeling that Democrat Mayor Sylvester Turner instructed Houston residents to 'stay put' just to oppose the Republican advice and bash Trump over the head with 'lack of funds' later.

That's utter hogwash.

<snip>

The weather men very clearly said it was not the winds that were the main problem but the sheer rainfall.

Anyone with any experience with or knowledge of hurricanes is already well aware of this.

The residents of Houston more than most.

What was the Mayor of Houston thinking when he seemed to give the message all of this would somehow bypass Houston itself?

What are you thinking if you think he seemed to give that message? How could he even do that? Everyone there is watching the same weather forecasts and hurricane track predictions.

Even I can still remember Ike and I am 7,000 miles away.

Do you think that makes you special? How many hurricanes have you personally been in? How many have you even been close enough to to be threatened by? How many have you had to clean up after?


You "still remember Ike". Good grief.

Do you remember Matthew? That was less than a year ago. Here in NC alone it killed twenty six people and did close to $2 billion in damages. A week after it passed there were still rivers that hadn't peaked flooding. Rebuilding is going on to this day.

Do you remember Fran? $2.5 billion in damage here in NC

Do you remember Floyd? It hit NC less than a month after Dennis. (Remember Dennis? It cut Hatteras Island in half.) Out of the 57 deaths Floyd caused in the U.S., 51 were here.

I do. I remember them all, and more besides. Can you guess why?

*********************

Catching a few news reports does not make you some sort of authority.

Live in a hurricane prone area for a few decades. Live through a few. Help clean up and rebuild after a few. Heave a few sighs of relief after the ones that miss you or fizzle out. Have some friends who lost lives or homes.

Then get back to us. You might have enough knowledge to deserve to criticize.

 

[rwguinn]

people DIED evacuating Nawlins. Traffic averaged 0.5 mph or less in many places. people ran out of gas; wrecks, and heat killed folks.
most freeways out of



houston are under construction
Where you gonna put 6 and a half million people? How you going to feed them
Don't be stupid, folks.

 

[casebro]

Gasoline stations run dry too.The transport system is not made to handle EVERYBODY filling it up on one day.

 

[LTC8K6]

Gasoline stations run dry too.The transport system is not made to handle EVERYBODY filling it up on one day.

You have to have a managed evacuation in stages according to the flood maps.

You certainly don't want to promote the attitude that no evacuation is necessary.

https://twitter.com/DisasterPIO/status/901157950672293889

 

[dudalb]

I am still amazed someone is equating evacuasting a town in the Sierras with maybe 100 people to evacuating a metro area of Six Million.
You also have the issue of different jurisdiction. The much publicized Nursing Home was NOT located in Houston proper. Mayor had no jurisdiction.

 

[dudalb]

Well, for one, Houston isn't a town.

If you put all people in cars, six apiece, you'd need about 1 million vechiles to take them all out. A typical three line road can cope with perhaps 5000 vechiles an hour going in one direction. Suppose you double that by closing the line the other way and you have 5 such roads available, the evacuation still takes around 20 hours, assuming there are no bottlenecks, such as those from flooding, accidents or roads leading to your destinations being clogged by traffic.

After you've done that, you just have problems with providing about 6 million people with food, water and shelter for the next week or two. The population includes very young, very old and sick, so it's about akin to the effort Germany put in fighting the Eastern front during WW2.

That's a tad difficult to pull off on two days' notice.

McHrozni

Not to mention that you will have delays, which means that the evacuation will still be in progress when those 100mph winds hit.
And no one, even the most pessimistic metrologists, were predicting the amount of rainfall would be this bad.

 

[LTC8K6]

Not to mention that you will have delays, which means that the evacuation will still be in progress when those 100mph winds hit.
And no one, even the most pessimistic metrologists, were predicting the amount of rainfall would be this bad.

The modeling and forecasting being completely wrong until the last day or two is certainly a big part of the evacuation dilemma.