Ed The Hurricane [or Tropical Storm] Harvey Thread

[dudalb]

And it is note just Houston, the whole Texas coast is also being hard hit.

And we are not halfway through the rainfall......

 

[Vixen]

You just cannot evacuate 6.1 Million people.,,the population of greater Houston.


New Orleans had a much smaller population.

That is insane crazy. All of the major highways are shut, at least two major sink holes on a couple of them, 800 people stranded at the airport.

We knew this storm was on its way over a week ago and was listed as an even stronger category of 3, than the 1 it is now.

I recall Hurricane Ike and a tall office block building in Houston with every single one of its windows blown in.

You say it's not practical (of course, it is too late for anyone to get out unless a boat or helicopter rescues them) but it's bat guano bonkers to put six million people in such a life threatening position, with one of the reservoir dams looking dangerously close to breaking.

This is a disaster.

The storm is predicted to move out back to the Gulf and then hit Houston a SECOND time, with 50" of rain in five days.

It is absolute madness, as it was foreseeable.

And all the POTUS can do is wish Texas, 'Good luck' with a fist pump.

 

[quadraginta]

It is shocking, because downtown areas along the coast are already expecting 30". The FEMA (is that right?) should have declared a state of emergency and carried out an official evacuation.
<snip>

FEMA doesn't declare a state of emergency. They can't. They have no authority or jurisdiction. Their job is to respond to emergencies.

Under certain, limited conditions the POTUS can declare a state of emergency.

A state governor can declare a state of emergency for his jurisdiction (anywhere in the state), as can in many states a mayor (for example) for their smaller one. This initiates a process which allows the deployment of various services (such as FEMA) and the application for disbursement of various funding sources.

The Governor of Texas had already declared a state of emergency even before Harvey hit them.

Evacuation orders were put in place, both mandatory and voluntary depending on the location, before the storm hit.

You really ought to educate yourself about the facts before you decide to criticize.

Issuing an evacuation order is not a trivial exercise. The costs and disruption have to be carefully evaluated compared to the dangers of allowing the residents to remain.

One proven problem with evacuation orders is that it has been made evident that if they are issued and it ultimately turns out they were not needed then the residents of those areas will be far less likely to heed later ones which end up being critical. This has been demonstrated clearly in places like coastal NC, where hurricanes are an annual occurrence.

Not all places can be evacuated. Depending on the size of the resident population and expected severity of the storm it may be less dangerous to direct people to stay in place.

It's one thing to evacuate tens or even hundreds of thousands or so from a single locale. It is an entirely different thing to try to evacuate millions.

 

[Vixen]

FEMA doesn't declare a state of emergency. They can't. They have no authority or jurisdiction. Their job is to respond to emergencies.

Under certain, limited conditions the POTUS can declare a state of emergency.

A state governor can declare a state of emergency for his jurisdiction (anywhere in the state), as can in many states a mayor (for example) for their smaller one. This initiates a process which allows the deployment of various services (such as FEMA) and the application for disbursement of various funding sources.

The Governor of Texas had already declared a state of emergency even before Harvey hit them.

Evacuation orders were put in place, both mandatory and voluntary depending on the location, before the storm hit.

You really ought to educate yourself about the facts before you decide to criticize.

Issuing an evacuation order is not a trivial exercise. The costs and disruption have to be carefully evaluated compared to the dangers of allowing the residents to remain.

One proven problem with evacuation orders is that it has been made evident that if they are issued and it ultimately turns out they were not needed then the residents of those areas will be far less likely to heed later ones which end up being critical. This has been demonstrated clearly in places like coastal NC, where hurricanes are an annual occurrence.

Not all places can be evacuated. Depending on the size of the resident population and expected severity of the storm it may be less dangerous to direct people to stay in place.

It's one thing to evacuate tens or even hundreds of thousands or so from a single locale. It is an entirely different thing to try to evacuate millions.

Are you sure? Common consensus seems to be the Mayor told people to stay put.

The info coming through is that only the better off had the means to move out temporarily.

 

[dudalb]

You say it's not practical (of course, it is too late for anyone to get out unless a boat or helicopter rescues them) but it's bat guano bonkers to put six million people in such a life threatening position, with one of the reservoir dams looking dangerously close to breaking.

Just digging yourself in deeper, I see.....

 

[Vixen]

Just digging yourself in deeper, I see.....

In what way? If I had an elderly relative in a care home in Houston,forced to sit in water up to their waist, I'd be furious and asking questions.

 

[dudalb]

Are you sure? Common consensus seems to be the Mayor told people to stay put.

The info coming through is that only the better off had the means to move out temporarily.

And when you have those high winds, telling people not to move around in the open is the correct move. Problem is that conditions change so quickly in a Hurricane.

And I see t cheap attempt to make political points off this tragedy is coming.

 

[dudalb]

And now there are Tornado Warnings in several areas, Harvey might well spawn Tornados.

 

[Vixen]

And when you have those high winds, telling people not to move around in the open is the correct move. Problem is that conditions change so quickly in a Hurricane.

And I see t cheap attempt to make political points off this tragedy is coming.

Did you not see the bit where it states all highways are closed? So of course people can't evacuate now.

Evacuation has to be done days in advance.

Hurricane Ike should have been a lesson.

 

[quadraginta]

Are you sure? Common consensus seems to be the Mayor told people to stay put.

The Mayor of Houston decided not to issue an evacuation order. Other areas were evacuated. Some before the storm ever reached the coast.

Houston has a population of 2.3 million people. It is the fourth largest city in the United States. An overnight evacuation is not something which can be done casually, if at all.

The extent of the flooding there is unprecedented in the city's history, There was no way to anticipate it. Even if there had been it still is probably better for as many people as possible to stay in place, The results of 2.3 million people all trying to evacuate at once with no preparation could have been and probably would have been a much bigger disaster.

And then there is the problem of where they would evacuate to. Nearly half the state is a disaster area, and it continues to get worse. Many people who were evacuated from other more clearly threatened areas are now finding themselves needing to evacuate again.

There is a calculus to the question of issuing an evacuation order. It is neither a simple nor an easy one.

What is easy is 20/20 hindsight. Try to resist the temptation to engage in it just to find fault with the decisions of others. You have no reason to believe you could have done better under the same circumstances.

The info coming through is that only the better off had the means to move out temporarily.

This is true of every evacuation order, no matter what the size or extent.

 

[dudalb]

Did you not see the bit where it states all highways are closed? So of course people can't evacuate now.

Evacuation has to be done days in advance.

Hurricane Ike should have been a lesson.

I see the whole issue of "It is not feasible to evacuate 6 Million people" seems to whizz right past your head.........

 

[Civet]

You know how some of those fundamentalist preacher types like to blame natural disasters on God's wrath over gays or voodoo or some such? Anyone trying that with Harvey yet?

 

[dudalb]

The Mayor of Houston decided not to issue an evacuation order. Other areas were evacuated. Some before the storm ever reached the coast.

Houston has a population of 2.3 million people. It is the fourth largest city in the United States. An overnight evacuation is not something which can be done casually, if at all.

The extent of the flooding there is unprecedented in the city's history, There was no way to anticipate it. Even if there had been it still is probably better for as many people as possible to stay in place, The results of 2.3 million people all trying to evacuate at once with no preparation could have been and probably would have been a much bigger disaster.

And then there is the problem of where they would evacuate to. Nearly half the state is a disaster area, and it continues to get worse. Many people who were evacuated from other more clearly threatened areas are now finding themselves needing to evacuate again.

There is a calculus to the question of issuing an evacuation order. It is neither a simple nor an easy one.

What is easy is 20/20 hindsight. Try to resist the temptation to engage in it just to find fault with the decisions of others. You have no reason to believe you could have done better under the same circumstances.




This is true of every evacuation order, no matter what the size or extent.

The Six million population is for the whole Houston Metropolitian area. Houston proper 2.3 Million.
And if you saw those winds Friday and Saturday you could understand why the Mayor did not order an evacuation.
This is a thousand year storm. When that happens, you are pretty much screwed.
And where do Millions of people go for shelter?

 

[dudalb]

You know how some of those fundamentalist preacher types like to blame natural disasters on God's wrath over gays or voodoo or some such? Anyone trying that with Harvey yet?

I am sure they will.


My favorite answer to that idiocy goes back to the 1906 San Francisco quake:

In the middle of the area wrecked by the quake and fire,a brick Whiskey distillery was one of the few buildings left standing. When the Elmer Gantries begun the "God is punishing Wicked San Francisco" crap,one newspaper published this:

"Some say that God spanked this town
For Being Over Friskey,
Then Why did he burn the churches down
but Spare Hotalting's Whiskey?".

 

[dudalb]

And, in the "Duh" department the NFL is "considering" moving Thursday Dallas/Houston game, scheduled to be played in Houston, to Dallas......

 

[quadraginta]

Did you not see the bit where it states all highways are closed? So of course people can't evacuate now.

Evacuation has to be done days in advance.

Hurricane Ike should have been a lesson.

It may have been, but the wrong one.

During Ike mandatory evacuations were ordered as well, including the low-lying areas around Houston.

40 percent of the residents in the mandatory evacuation areas ignored the warnings and orders to leave.

Although there was considerable damage done in Houston there were only eight fatalities attributed to the storm out of the millions who lived there, all from incidents involving clean-up after the storm had passed.

One lesson learned there was that evacuation orders can be ignored with impunity.

Not a good lesson, perhaps, but something which is considered when such orders are contemplated. The result of false alarms can be far more casualties in later events.

This is not conjecture. It has been clearly demonstrated in areas far more prone to hurricane threat than Texas.

 

[dudalb]

Problem with evacuation orders is they are almost impossble to enforce.

 

[quadraginta]

The Six million population is for the whole Houston Metropolitian area. Houston proper 2.3 Million.

Yes, I know.

But Vixen was aiming her criticism at the Mayor of Houston, and his jurisdiction only extends to the city as far as I know, so I limited my number to that.

Now she gets to ask why the Governor didn't have the entire Greater Houston MSA evacuated.

I didn't want to rob her of the opportunity. Now you've spoiled it for her.

And if you saw those winds Friday and Saturday you could understand why the Mayor did not order an evacuation.

Believe me, I do understand. I've been through several hurricane events during my years in NC.

More, I expect, than our friend Vixen.

This is a thousand year storm. When that happens, you are pretty much screwed. And where do Millions of people go for shelter?

Yup. Sometimes there just isn't anywhere to run to in time.

 

[Vixen]

Yes, I know.

But Vixen was aiming her criticism at the Mayor of Houston, and his jurisdiction only extends to the city as far as I know, so I limited my number to that.

Now she gets to ask why the Governor didn't have the entire Greater Houston MSA evacuated.

I didn't want to rob her of the opportunity. Now you've spoiled it for her.




Believe me, I do understand. I've been through several hurricane events during my years in NC.

More, I expect, than our friend Vixen.




Yup. Sometimes there just isn't anywhere to run to in time.

North Carolina? I have been to Charlotte on my way to Tennessee. The relatives of my hosts in TN were actually caught up in a hurricane headed for Hawaii.

They just hunkered down in a hotel basement until the danger was over.

I can recall Hurricance Ike and the prison governor's refusal to move out prisoners and juvenile delinquents from correction penitentiaries in Galveston.

That was the most scary thing to witness from afar (England). People stubbornly stayed, not believing the media. Many perished in the most frightening conditions, hanging on to tops of trees, etc.

I would have fled Houston whether I could afford it or not.

If whole towns in California can evacuate fires, dam bursts and earthquakes, I don't see that the logistics would be impossible for Houston.

True, Harvey could have been a damp squib.

 

[quadraginta]

North Carolina? I have been to Charlotte on my way to Tennessee.

You've "been to Charlotte".

Congratulations.

Were you in Charlotte while it was being hit by a hurricane?

Have you ever been anywhere while it was being hit by a hurricane?

The relatives of my hosts in TN were actually caught up in a hurricane headed for Hawaii.

They just hunkered down in a hotel basement until the danger was over.

Good for them. Was an evacuation order in place? Did one need to be?

Which hurricane was this?

I can recall Hurricance Ike and the prison governor's refusal to move out prisoners and juvenile delinquents from correction penitentiaries in Galveston.

How many casualties were there as a result of that decision?

<snip>

If whole towns in California can evacuate fires, dam bursts and earthquakes, I don't see that the logistics would be impossible for Houston.

Perhaps you should look more closely at the circumstances of those evacuations. The conditions under which they were imposed. How many people were affected on what time scales. How and why the decisions were made whether or not to evacuate.

It isn't as simple as you imply.

True, Harvey could have been a damp squib.

It could have been horrendous and never have threatened Houston enough to warrant an evacuation. There is a lot to be considered before making the commitment of telling millions of people to flee.