Rethinking threats to human survival (The Lancet, Oct 11, 2026)
The Commission, composed of 37 experts in health, economics, security, and technology, uses a foresight-driven, health-focused approach to identify 17 priority threats to human health. But, despite the Commission's title, this work is not only about health: it is also about human survival. The Commission assesses threats by calculating the expected cumulative disease burden—measured as amenable disability-adjusted life-years from 2025 to 2100—that can be reasonably altered through policy intervention. Two of these major catastrophic threats have extinction potential: nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI). Although the likelihood of both dangers remains low, the scale of harm, should they be realised, would inflict an apocalypse on humanity. Additional threats include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate change, conventional conflict, declining development assistance for health, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics,
obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy ageing.