Syria and UN Security Council Decision

[JihadJane]

Sobering thought via UK Stop the War Coalition re Hersch revelations:

'Time to wake up: latest attempt to bounce us into war with Syria must be the last'

If Barack Obama had not been forced to scrap his plan to bomb Syria at the last minute, we would now be reading about these deceptions after thousands, or more likely tens of thousands, of Syrian civilians had been killed in allied bombing runs.

Seymour Hersh: US deceived us on Syria

 

[JihadJane]

'Britain’s policy on Syria has just been sunk, and nobody noticed

World View: The West’s favoured faction is on the run, while the Riyadh-backed rebels steadily gain ground'

The final bankruptcy of American and British policy in Syria came 10 days ago as Islamic Front, a Saudi-backed Sunni jihadi group, overran the headquarters of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) at Bab al-Hawa on the Syrian side of the border with Turkey. The FSA, along with the Syrian National Coalition, groups that the United States and Britain have been pretending for years are at the heart of Syrian military and political opposition, has been discredited. The remaining FSA fighters are in flight, have changed sides, or are devoting all their efforts to surviving the onslaught from jihadi or al-Qa’ida-linked brigades.
The US and Britain stopped the delivery of non-lethal aid to the supply depot at Bab al-Hawa as the implications of the disaster sank in.

...

All US, British and French miscalculations have produced in Syria is a re-run of Afghanistan in the 1980s, creating a situation the ruinous consequences of which have yet to appear. As jihadis in Syria realise they are not going to win, they may well look for targets closer to home.

 

[McHrozni]

World View: The West’s favoured faction is on the run, while the Riyadh-backed rebels steadily gain ground

Yup, that's what we typically get for staying out, I hope the "hands off Syria" crowd is happy. I hope that next time feces like this happen we'll be smart enough to know there is no "neutrality" in conflicts like these, by choosing to stay out you already picked a side.

McHrozni

 

[Childlike Empress]

US asks Islamic Front rebels in Syria for stolen equipment back

[...] The material, which included vehicles and communications gear, had been supplied to the Supreme Military Council (SMC) of Syrian opposition fighters, but was seized by the powerful Islamist group from warehouses at the Syria-Turkey border. [...] The official said the Obama administration is willing to consider supporting an expanded Syrian rebel coalition that would include Islamist groups, provided the groups are not allied with al-Qa’ida and agree to support upcoming peace talks in Geneva. The Islamic Front is not affiliated to al-Qa’ida. [...] “We don’t have a problem with the Islamic Front,” the official, who wished to remain anonymous, said, adding that “we want our stuff back”.

One can't eat as much as one wants to puke.

 

[McHrozni]

US asks Islamic Front rebels in Syria for stolen equipment back

So much about the fairy tale about US supporting Islamists.

McHrozni

 

[Darth Rotor]

So much for the President's early rhetoric, when the rebellion began, that Assad's time was coming to an end.

I think he called that one wrong ... but I am also not sure just how this will all end. Local players aren't done, as far as I can figure.

 

[McHrozni]

So much for the President's early rhetoric, when the rebellion began, that Assad's time was coming to an end.

I think he called that one wrong ... but I am also not sure just how this will all end. Local players aren't done, as far as I can figure.

I see two possibilities: Somalia-like collapse or Algeria/Colombia-like scenario with a permanent rebellion sewing chaos and destruction. The Syrian civil war is here to stay for a few decades, most probably.

McHrozni

 

[Childlike Empress]

To satisfy Darth's desire to get the latest UNSC information, here's Vitali Churkin summing up the whole despicable CW WMD episode in the wake of the final Sellström report (3MB PDF) which was released late last week.

 

[Eddie Dane]

I see two possibilities: Somalia-like collapse or Algeria/Colombia-like scenario with a permanent rebellion sewing chaos and destruction. The Syrian civil war is here to stay for a few decades, most probably.

McHrozni

Could it break up in a Shia and a Sunni state?
With a stream of refugees going in both directions like happened with the creation of Israel and Pakistan?

 

[McHrozni]

Could it break up in a Shia and a Sunni state?
With a stream of refugees going in both directions like happened with the creation of Israel and Pakistan?

If it were that easy it would happen more often. It didn't happen in Bosnia, and there's no reason to expect it here. I agree it would be a very rational, possibly also very good solution, but breaking countries apart isn't usual for some reason.

McHrozni

 

[Mycroft]

US asks Islamic Front rebels in Syria for stolen equipment back




One can't eat as much as one wants to puke.

Exactly what about the story makes you feel that way?

 

[LSSBB]

Exactly what about the story makes you feel that way?

I think its because it is now harder to pretend that the US is intentionally in bed with AQ. It's so hard to give up illusions, it can cause physical discomfort.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Thank you for the link to the report, it will take me a few days to review it.
You'll understand why I don't just accept your sources as reliable summaries, CE, due to your demonstrated penchant for serious confirmation bias.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Thank you for the link to the report, it will take me a few days to review it.
You'll understand why I don't just accept your sources as reliable summaries, CE, due to your demonstrated penchant for serious confirmation bias.

Buddy, you're the guy who flies the helicopter. You have all the time you need.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Interesting detailed interview with the Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi, on "Geneva" (looks like it will be Montreux) II and a lot of numbers on the ground. Snippet:

[...] Al-Akhbar: Some are saying that Geneva II is more of an American-Russian need than a Syrian need. To what extent is this true?

WH: This is accurate to some extent, thanks to the achievements of the Syrian Arab army. These achievements are troubling for some, if they continue according to the timetable set by the armed forces, invalidating the need to go to Geneva. I am not talking only about military victory, because this alone will not resolve the problem. It should be supplemented by a Syrian-Syrian political dialogue, which is what we announced in the initiative of the president on 6 January 2013.

What would it mean if Geneva was held on 22 and 23 January 2014, but the Jordanian, Lebanese, and Turkish borders remain open for the flow of terrorists? If you want me to give you some information, I am from Deraa, where the armed forces are fighting fierce battles. Where did all the armed groups come from? A few days ago, 3,000 militants from Islamic groups from various nationalities entered the city of Enkhel in Deraa. Where did they come from? From Jordan. So far, there is no regional will, especially with respect to the practices of the Saudi regime, which has gone mad after Iran concluded the nuclear deal. [...]

 

[Childlike Empress]

NYT Backs Off Its Syria-Sarin Analysis

[...] But you’d be forgiven if you missed the Times’ embarrassing confession, since it was buried on page 8, below the fold, 18 paragraphs into a story under the not-so-eye-catching title, “New Study Refines View Of Sarin Attack in Syria.”

But this Times article at least acknowledges what has been widely reported on the Internet, including at Consortiumnews.com, that the Times’ “vector analysis” – showing the reverse flight paths of two missiles intersecting at a Syrian military base – has collapsed, in part, because the range of the rockets was much too limited.

There were other problems with the “vector analysis” that was pushed by the Times and Human Rights Watch, which has long wanted the U.S. military to intervene in the Syrian civil war against the Syrian government. [...]

I remember how some of the know-it-all guys here were plugging this dreck. The blogger known as "Brown Moses" that was so hip thanks to some fancy home stories, and the ultimate source NYT and HRW claimed to rely upon, has by now completely discredited himself in the eyes of everyone watching closely. I think he finally accepted the range but came up with new stories this time certainly showing that "Assad" did it.

 

[Childlike Empress]

First Stage of Syrian Chemical Weapons Destruction Complete

The first stage was the destruction of the equipment to produce, mix and put into ammunition the actual agents. The second stage will be to destroy the unmixed base chemicals:

[...] Last week, Moscow deployed 75 vehicles in Syria to transport the dangerous cargo. [...] According to a plan outlined by the OPCW, Danish and Norwegian vessels will take the chemicals from the Syrian port of Latakia to a port in Italy. They will then be loaded on to a US Navy ship and transported into international waters before being destroyed through hydrolysis in a specially built titanium tank on board. [...]

The Danish and Norwegian vessels will be escorted to Italy by the Russian AND Chinese navy. Pretty cool. Talking about an international effort.

 

[Darth Rotor]

The Danish and Norwegian vessels will be escorted to Italy by the Russian AND Chinese navy.

... and the Mafia will dispose of it all in either a land fill, or in the Adriatic Sea.

 

[Childlike Empress]

The new year started with everybody watching in amazement how the different proxy armies started to fall over each other. It first seemed like there was a coordinated effort to get rid of ISIS, but then it turned quickly into an all-against-all butcher fest with regionally differing coalitions. The London snack shop says 700 "rebels" dead at their own hands in the last 9 days. Jokes are making the round that all the SAA now needs is more popcorn.

 

[Eddie Dane]

The new year started with everybody watching in amazement how the different proxy armies started to fall over each other. It first seemed like there was a coordinated effort to get rid of ISIS, but then it turned quickly into an all-against-all butcher fest with regionally differing coalitions. The London snack shop says 700 "rebels" dead at their own hands in the last 9 days. Jokes are making the round that all the SAA now needs is more popcorn.

London snack shop?

Does anybody have any kind of handle on casualty figures at this point?
I thought the UN stopped counting due to lack of reliable information.

Is there any insight in what coalitions currently exist?

Not being snaky, genuine questions.