Swine Flu in San Diego

[Dymanic]

Has "Evolutionary Theory" helped in any way?

It can help in making certain predictions. Observing that some types of behaviors confer a selective advantage over others in specific situations, I can predict that during a pandemic, churchgoers will be more likely to become infected (with the possible exception of those Mormons whose ability to practice social distancing is enhanced by adherance to the "maintain a year's supply of food" doctrine) -- while people with OCD (particularly those afflicted with the very common "hand-washing" compulsion) will be less likely to become infected.

It's not about "survival of the fittest". It's about "survival of those who benefit from the introduction of some bias into what would otherwise have been a random distribution".

 

[macdoc]

How can we prevent hysterical reactions?

Education - there are some dolts in every group however

Is the Media helping Health policies in the face of an early pandemic?

Yes

Has "Evolutionary Theory" helped in any way?

Not sure what you mean by that but of course evolution helps understand the changes in the disease category and even in the severity. It also provides insight into attacking influenza at points most common to all strains.

I have accepted uncertainty, we can be prepared to a certain degree, but we cannot cover all the possibilities. I doubt any Scientist/Epidemiologist ever predicted that the "next pandemic" started in Mexico. Not too long ago, everybody was worried about China, East Asia as probable incubators of the "next" pandemic flu...

It's not a prediction - it's an assessment of risk

Just to reiterate my position from other posts in this Forum and other places:
Evolution happened and will continue to do so.
It is a random process whose details cannot be predicted.
Evolution cannot help Medicine, it provides an accurate explanation for "hindsight" analysis.

Wrong but not for this thread

We are dependent on a heuristic process to fight communicable diseases, if we are lucky, we can have sentinel sites that can identify current infections, microbiologists and pharmaceutical engineers can produce vaccines or antibiotics to treat known infections.

What has luck got to do with being prepared for a likely range of scenarios. If you know a drought year is likely you prepare even if you don't know the severity

On a tangential note, shouldn't we be concerned at the amount of antibiotics that are used in livestock production, unrelated to infection? (some quote 70% of the antibiotic production goes to Agricultural use, not used to treat infections)

It is of major concern - you would know that if you understood some of the areas you seem to be blinkered on

Agricultural use of antibiotics and the evolution and transfer of antibiotic-resistant bacteria

http://www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/abstract/159/9/1129

••••

Please reassure us you are skeptical OF doctors.......NOT a skeptical doctor ...shudder..

 

[skepticdoc]

Personal attacks are not productive.

 

[macdoc]

Neither is nonsense in a science forum. Seems to me there is some substance to my concern.
Your nick is an insult to the medical profession if you are one.
Clarification never hurt anyone.

 

[skepticdoc]

So, what kind of "doctor" are you?

A doctor/technician of Mac computers?

A Mac user with some doctorate degree?

Thanks for reminding me why I read or post infrequently here, I am a practicing Medical Doctor, I am agnostic, but my theosophical/metaphysical/religious/atheist beliefs have nothing to do with the practice of Medicine.

I try to practice EBM, I worship "Evolution" as much as I worship gravity...

Criticizing inappropriate applications of evolutionary theory in this and other "skeptical" forums is similar to discussing the lack of evidence of the existence of Jesus or miracles among Christians of any denomination. I learned not to discuss that in my personal life, I just have to do the same in this forum. I just had the delusion that maybe there was something I could learn or share here.

 

[dudalb]

Just read 68 deaths in Mexico, and now 9 more confirmed cases in Texas.... and a quarantine. This is creeping me out. I always thought the "Big Death" would be "Super-AIDS".

Sexual transimitted diseases will never be "The Big Killer".They are too slow to spread because exposure is slow.
I always though some from of Ebola would be The Big One.
And then there is Captain Trips....

 

[BenBurch]

A national state of emergency has now been declared in this bug is being found in more and more places;

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html

 

[macdoc]

Um you might want to revise that to public health emergency...

Just a little bit of difference.

 

[Soapy Sam]

I just checked.

I'm still alive. 22:22 ut 26 April 2009.

Can I come out of the bunker yet?

 

[casebro]

I'll bet your chances of dying in this epidemic is less than one in a million.

Any takers?

 

[macdoc]

Less

 

[Deetee]

On a tangential note, shouldn't we be concerned at the amount of antibiotics that are used in livestock production, unrelated to infection? (some quote 70% of the antibiotic production goes to Agricultural use, not used to treat infections)

You want to discuss tangential issues, start a new thread.

I just had the delusion that maybe there was something I could learn or share here.

That seems rather unlikely and fanciful.

 

[skepticdoc]

Actually, I was curious to see what skeptigirl had to say...

 

[sol invictus]

The only concern is it targets young adult and early adult which is what the 1918 epidemic did.
Some of the tales from then are startling.....healthy one day - dead the next for someone in their 20s.

The immune response is strongest in young adults - and one possibility is that it's the immune response itself (a "cytokine storm") that kills the patient.

Perhaps that could also explain the fact that all the deaths so far have been in Mexico - from what I've read, few if any of the patients in other countries are in their 20s.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Sexual transimitted diseases will never be "The Big Killer".They are too slow to spread because exposure is slow. ..

Right, those millions of HIV-AIDS deaths are all from IV drug use.

"The Big Killer" you speak of has another variable to consider in your erroneous conclusion. That is the latent period when it is infectious and the infected person is able to spread it. Since it is so long with HIV, the disease has been able to devastate many populations.

Another variable is spreading through more than one route. So the STD spread of HIV was amplified by variables such as widespread reuse of medical devices in third world countries.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Actually, I was curious to see what skeptigirl had to say...

Have you figured out yet that being a doctor is no guarantee you know much and not being one is no reason to think one doesn't?

 

[skepticdoc]

I only know that we have to remain vigilant, the future is relatively unpredictable, read The Black Swan"... Earning a title or passing exams is no guarantee of infallibility, we have to revise our assessments and expectations as new evidence is discovered. My point is that evolutionists cannot predict the direction of life, or pathogens, astronomers on the other hand have figured out the trajectories of known celestial bodies and can propel humans and machines out of planet Earth, Medicine is way too far from reaching that level. Now if you can explain why this outbreak started in Mexico, instead of Asia as most feared... Or why there was another outbreak in Egypt?...

 

[macdoc]

I think you don't know enough to understand your question is ludicrous

remedial reading

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec1961/001.htm

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

What's a "strain"? Note that I am biologically illiterate so keep it simple. Links are fine if you have good ones to recommend.

International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses

The ICTV classification uses an eight position decimal code to represent order, family, subfamily, genus, species, subspecies, serotype or subtype, and strain or isolate. Each position in the code uses 1, 2, or 3 numerical digits. The decimal code identifies a virus to the level of strain or isolate.

H1N1 is a serotype and the strain is the next division down.

 

[BenBurch]

Um you might want to revise that to public health emergency...

Just a little bit of difference.

I believe that in law there is little difference - a state of emergency gives the President certain powers. I hope he uses them.