• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

Swine Flu in San Diego

can cats catch this?
No reason to suspect so. H5N1 has been known to infect cats, tigers in particular, but this isn't that. Still, the virtually simultaneous appearance of cases in geographically diverse locations suggests that this thing has been perking away somewhere, and it doesn't necessarily have to have been humans (probably was, tho).

i have already purchased 60 surgical masks...=)
Unfortunately, surgical masks of the type you see people wearing in most of the news photos from Mexico are really not designed to protect the person wearing them, but to prevent that person from infecting someone else. As protective device, what's usually recommended is a tighter fitting mask such as the N95 respirator mask.
 
Just read 68 deaths in Mexico, and now 9 more confirmed cases in Texas.... and a quarantine. This is creeping me out. I always thought the "Big Death" would be "Super-AIDS".
 
Just read 68 deaths in Mexico, and now 9 more confirmed cases in Texas.... and a quarantine. This is creeping me out. I always thought the "Big Death" would be "Super-AIDS".
Don't let the news media distort your assessment of this particular hazard.
 
Here's an interesting related article from last month:

H5N1 virus may be adapting to pigs in Indonesia
Prelude to a pandemic strain?
The authors offer this interpretation of their findings: "Since our swine strains were isolated from pigs with no apparent influenza-like symptoms, the decrease of pathogenicity in mice suggests that the H5N1 viruses may have lost their pathogenicity in mammals during replication in pigs. Given that for the H5N1 viruses to cause a pandemic, they would likely become attenuated in humans, becoming attenuated in mammals may be a prelude to the generation of a pandemic strain."

They add that because H5N1 infections in swine increase the risk that a pandemic strain could emerge, the findings point up the need for "continuous surveillance and management of H5N1 viruses in pigs."

The findings may mean that H5N1 viruses from swine will be less virulent in mammals generally, but it's not clear that the viruses have truly adapted to swine, said Richard Webby, PhD, a virologist, flu researcher, and associate member of the Department of Infectious Diseases at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis.

Noting that the study authors used only five isolates, Webby said, "Trying to make too much of a conclusion from that number would be premature. The two least lethal viruses were both from swine, but one [swine isolate] was lethal. So perhaps if these become adapted to mammals, they're potentially going to be less pathogenic."
 
I've just heard that there are 2 confirmed cases in Kansas, and potentially something like 200(??) unconfirmed in NY City. CNN says, "On Saturday, New York's Bureau of Communicable Diseases said preliminary tests from a Queens school suggest that eight out of the nine children tested probably have the swine flu virus. Dr. Don Weiss said up to 200 students at the school reported feeling ill."

The first 9 U.S. cases have already recovered. No U.S. deaths.
 
I heard this dude on TV saying the reason the death rate could be high in Mexico is because maybe "chingos" more people have been exposed.
 
I've just heard that there are 2 confirmed cases in Kansas, and potentially something like 200(??) unconfirmed in NY City.
"About 200 children from the 2,700-student St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens were absent last week with flu-like symptoms, said Thomas Frieden, commissioner for the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, at a press conference yesterday. All of the cases have been mild, lasting several days, and none of the children have been hospitalized, he said."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTgD3ZjvANrI&refer=home

State lab tests have identified the virus as type A influenza, but they couldn't subtype the isolates. Because they couldn't subtype them, it is reasonable to assume that they belong to the novel strain.

The response by the WHO continues to be every bit as impressive as FEMA's initial response to Katrina.
 
I found this interesting timeline. The source appears legit. They are what they say, a biosurveillance company.

Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events
April 6

Veratect reported local health officials declared a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in La Gloria, Perote Municipality, Veracruz State, Mexico. Sources characterized the event as a "strange" outbreak of acute respiratory infection, which led to bronchial pneumonia in some pediatric cases. According to a local resident, symptoms included fever, severe cough, and large amounts of phlegm. Health officials recorded 400 cases that sought medical treatment in the last week in La Gloria, which has a population of 3,000; officials indicated that 60% of the town’s population (approximately 1,800 cases) has been affected. No precise timeframe was provided, but sources reported that a local official had been seeking health assistance for the town since February.

Residents claimed that three pediatric cases, all under two years of age, died from the outbreak. However, health officials stated that there was no direct link between the pediatric deaths and the outbreak; they stated the three fatal cases were "isolated" and "not related" to each other.

Residents believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to "flu." However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.
I don' t know if the March 30th event was connected. This source monitors hundreds of sources and reports of sick people with unexplained illnesses are extremely common.

The real start of this appears to be ~April 2 with the Semana Santa (Saints' Week) vacation contributing to the spread.
 
Last edited:
... is because maybe "chingos" more people have been exposed.

Probably meant "chilangos" - people living in Mexico City. The word you used is very bad (but translates as "many" or "a lot")!

Today's news report 81 deceased that "could" be related to the emergency. Interesting enough, the situation is very localized geographically, but in one of the most populated areas in the world. In my home State, two thousand kilometers away, there is concern naturally, but so far no emergency and no suspect cases reported.
 
Just a small note to add:

Mexico City officials have canceled classes and hundreds of public events (top soccer matches will take place in enclosed stadiums with NO audience) trying to avoid mass spreading in such events. However, Catholic officials announced they will not cancel church services. So there.


ETA: just read that yes, churches are also canceling. Damn them anyway. On a related note, taxes are due on April 30, but the deadline has been extended for one more month. Classes are scheduled again for May 6th.
 
Last edited:
Just a small note to add:

Mexico City officials have canceled classes and hundreds of public events (top soccer matches will take place in enclosed stadiums with NO audience) trying to avoid mass spreading in such events. However, Catholic officials announced they will not cancel church services. So there.


ETA: just read that yes, churches are also canceling. Damn them anyway. On a related note, taxes are due on April 30, but the deadline has been extended for one more month. Classes are scheduled again for May 6th.

I thought it was funny that they didn't cancel the soccer game.
 
Probably meant "chilangos" - people living in Mexico City. The word you used is very bad (but translates as "many" or "a lot")!

pardona me senor, me espanol es muy gatcho;) they call me the "huedo from the ghetto", hehehe
 
Many of those deaths in Mexico are not yet attributed.
It's way too early to even identify specific infections on a broad scale let alone deaths but where it is identified the recovery rate is very high - one reason there is no escalation by WHO.

There are 20 confirmed deaths from this flu out of 81 suspected deaths - in Mexico.

Relenza, Tamiflu effective and available, makers say
ASSOCIATED PRESS • APRIL 25, 2009

NEW YORK -- Makers of the two main antiviral flu treatments said Friday they have been in touch with world health authorities on the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico City and said the virus seems to respond to their medicines.

GlaxoSmithKline, which makes Relenza, and Roche, which makes Tamiflu, said they have been in touch with the World Health Organization as Mexico City shut down schools, libraries and other institutions to try to quell the outbreak, which has killed at least 20 people.

In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said tests show some of the Mexico victims died from the same new strain of swine flu that sickened eight people in Texas and California.

GlaxoSmithKline spokeswoman Sarah Alspach said the British drug maker has been in touch with the World Health Organization on identifying the exact strain.

Roche spokesman Terry Hurley said the Swiss drug developer's emergency Tamiflu stockpile is on 24-hour stand-by. The company was contacted by the World Health Organization and is prepared to immediately deploy the stockpile if requested, he said.

Both drug makers confirmed that the swine flu strain is sensitive to their drugs.

Both Relenza and Tamiflu have to be taken early, within a few days of the onset of symptoms, to be most effective.

The same virus also sickened at least eight people in Texas and California, though there have been no deaths north of the border, puzzling experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A “seed stock” genetically matched to the new swine flu virus has been created by the CDC, said Dr. Richard Besser, the agency’s acting director. If the government decides vaccine production is necessary, manufacturers would need that stock to get started.

The CDC says two flu drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza, seem effective against the new strain. Roche, the maker of Tamiflu, said the company is prepared to immediately deploy a stockpile of th

This is a good overview of the situation

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6391960.html
 
How can we prevent hysterical reactions?

Is the Media helping Health policies in the face of an early pandemic?

Has "Evolutionary Theory" helped in any way?

I have accepted uncertainty, we can be prepared to a certain degree, but we cannot cover all the possibilities. I doubt any Scientist/Epidemiologist ever predicted that the "next pandemic" started in Mexico. Not too long ago, everybody was worried about China, East Asia as probable incubators of the "next" pandemic flu...

Just to reiterate my position from other posts in this Forum and other places:
Evolution happened and will continue to do so.
It is a random process whose details cannot be predicted.
Evolution cannot help Medicine, it provides an accurate explanation for "hindsight" analysis.
We are dependent on a heuristic process to fight communicable diseases, if we are lucky, we can have sentinel sites that can identify current infections, microbiologists and pharmaceutical engineers can produce vaccines or antibiotics to treat known infections.

On a tangential note, shouldn't we be concerned at the amount of antibiotics that are used in livestock production, unrelated to infection? (some quote 70% of the antibiotic production goes to Agricultural use, not used to treat infections)
 

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom