.. No, I have not lurked longer, just to set your mind at ease. I am not, by nature, the sneaky sort, lol!
Some lurkers are just readers who haven't decided to post yet, I don't think lurkers are necessarily sneaky.
Raven 1 said:
only ONE poster bothered to note the obvious discrepancy between the stated thesis and reality, and several others took the opportunity to use the statement to justify their general attacks on the very idea of not vaccinating, as if it were assumed to be true and so confirmation of such a pov.
Again, wrong assumptions but I understand why you made them. Some of the board members have long histories posting about vaccines here. Those who regularly post factual, well supported scientific information about vaccines and the infections the vaccines protect against do not necessarily repeat every detail and every observation about a new study or news report of a new study.
In addition, the sarcasm we might post and/or conclusions we might draw about the anti-vaccine 'crowd' are based on a long history of reading/hearing the unscientific, unsupported, not factual conclusions they draw about research they read or don't read or don't understand as one or both of the two is usually the case.
Just as a reminder about the scientific process, it involves interpreting data in a standard, logical way. Careful observation including documenting how one proceeded so others can evaluate the validity of the observations, sample size, including a description of the sample so others can evaluate the validity of that sample in relation to the population conclusions have been made about, control for other variables affecting the data like a control group, repeated findings by other researchers that support the original research, and a description of anything that might bias the researchers such as ties to a drug company.
Raven 1 said:
...My son must be one of the 20%.
We don't know from your description that your son's symptoms were or weren't related to the vaccine. The one way to add verification of that conclusion is not something any practitioner would likely do and that is to give a second DPT and see if the symptoms recur. Standard practice is to give a DT and protect your child from pertussis by vaccinating those around your child. Research overwhelmingly supports that action as having the benefit of disease protection outweigh the risk of vaccine adverse reaction.
Raven 1 said:
...I am familiar with [ACIP guidelines].
Is there a reason then, that you don't agree with the conclusions of this extremely thorough evaluation of vaccine risk vs benefit? (additional comments below)
Raven 1 said:
I focus on lack of critical thinking wherever I find it. I have done much research on the risks of the illnesses and the vaccines, to the point of breaking down the complication and mortality rates of each illness.
So you came to different conclusions than the ACIP? Did you look at the 100s of citations used by the ACIP to come to their conclusions? Did you compare, not the rate of infection among children in the US but the rate of infection in unvaccinated children? Many of the facts you have in this post about infection and infection rates are incorrect.
I have posted here about varicella in more detail and briefer comments about the other vaccine preventable diseases. My overall impression of your conclusions is that you have not used the scientific principles I listed above to weigh the information you used, and, you do not have an adequate knowledge base of the diseases despite believing you do.
Just so you know where I come from, and not because I think only a health care provider can read scientific literature, I give you my background. I have a Master's in Nursing Science. I am a nurse practitioner, certified in both occupational health and family practice. I specialize in infectious diseases and have for the last 15 years on top of 15 additional years as a nurse. But before you conclude I'm brainwashed or whatever it is you think has distorted my viewpoint, I also add I have strong anti-corporate leanings and generally far left politics. My pet peeve, however, is that while we on the left recognize the lies our government spews out, many fail to recognize how to weigh scientific evidence against all the junk science that is promoted within left leaning political groups.
Given what I have to say about the conclusions you have drawn, I doubt knowing my political leanings will help my credibility with you, but I can only try.
Raven 1 said:
Yes, I did mean that. You knew it, so my meaning got through.
So at least you recognize even when one is aware of various facts they may not post exactly or completely all one's thoughts on a matter.
Raven 1 said:
I cannot agree with [the ACIP/government] at all. The risk of chicken pox, for example, at 100 deaths per year, the majority in those with underlying conditions predisposing them to complications, pre-vaccine out of over 5 million cases comes nowhere NEAR the risk of mass vaccination for it which is predicted to result in an epidemic of shingles affecting more than 50% of those naturally immune and lasting a decade or more, not when shingles/herpes zoster carried 3 times the rate of hospitalization and 5 time the rate of death of CP in children.
Let's start with these facts, some of which are correct and some of which are not.
Prevention of Varicella: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), 1996
Prevention of Varicella Updated Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), 1999
Without vaccine, Varicella or chicken pox eventually infects almost everyone in the USA as evidenced by antibody surveys of the population.
Therefore the choice for your child is to get "wild" varicella infection which can be mild or severe, or "attenuated" vaccine varicella infection which is consistently mild.
Epidemiologic and serologic studies confirm that greater than 90% of adults are immune to VZV (CDC, unpublished data;1). Rates of immunity may be lower for adults who were raised in certain tropical or subtropical areas (e.g., Puerto Rico) (2).
Your statement about who is more likely to suffer varicella complications is directly contradicted by the data.[/b] With wild varicella
Otherwise healthy children and adolescents (i.e., persons less than 15 years of age) comprise the largest proportion (80%) of an estimated 9,300 annual varicella-related hospitalizations. However, the rate of complications is substantially higher for persons greater than or equal to 15 years of age and for infants (i.e., children less than 1 year of age). The most common complications of varicella, which can result in hospitalization, are bacterial infections of skin lesions, pneumonia, dehydration, encephalitis, and hepatitis. Since the association between Reye syndrome and aspirin use was identified, Reye syndrome, which was once considered a common complication resulting from varicella infection, now rarely occurs (3,4).
I might add here that an additional number not included is the number of medical errors or infections acquired in the hospital for the 9,300 persons hospitalized every year.
You state that 100 people out of 5 million cases die, CDC cites an estimated 3.7 million cases occur annually. But even so, the number of deaths from the vaccine to my knowledge is zero.
The mean annual number of persons who died in the United States as a result of complications of varicella decreased from 106 persons during 1973-1979 to 57 persons during 1982-1986. This decrease may have resulted from a) the substantial reduction in cases of Reye syndrome, b) the availability of acyclovir, c) the selective use of varicella zoster immune globulin (VZIG), and d) improvements in supportive care. However, during 1987-1992, the mean annual number of varicella-related deaths increased to 94 persons; the cause of this increase is unknown. The case-fatality rate is lower for children and adolescents 1-14 years of age than for infants (0.75 cases per 100,000 children and 6.23 cases per 100,000 infants). Among persons greater than or equal to 15 years of age, the risk for death increases with age, from 2.7 per 100,000 among persons 15-19 years of age to 25.2 per 100,000 among persons 30-49 years of age (CDC, unpublished data). Although the varicella-related mortality rate among children generally is low, during periods of increased varicella incidence, the circulation of virulent strains of group A streptococci (which are more likely to cause invasive, fatal infections) can result in an unusually high number of hospitalizations and deaths among children (5,6).
And the strep they are talking about is also known as the infamous "flesh eating bacteria". We had 12 cases in kids with chicken pox in one outbreak a few years ago that were treated at Seattle's Children's Hospital.
Then there is the risk to fetuses or newborns.
Although prenatal infection is uncommon because most women of childbearing age are immune to VZV (7), varicella in pregnant women is associated with a risk for VZV transmission to the fetus or newborn. Intrauterine VZV infection may result in congenital varicella syndrome, clinical varicella (during the newborn period), or clinical zoster (during infancy or early childhood) (8-17)....
Congenital varicella syndrome, first recognized in 1947 (11), can occur among infants born to mothers infected during the first half of pregnancy and may be manifested by low birthweight, cutaneous scarring, limb hypoplasia, microcephaly, cortical atrophy, chorioretinitis, cataracts, and other anomalies. Aggregate results from prospective studies (8,13-15) indicate that congenital varicella syndrome developed in four (0.7%) of 564 infants born to mothers who had varicella during the first trimester of pregnancy...
Your statement,
"mass vaccination for it which is predicted to result in an epidemic of shingles affecting more than 50% of those naturally immune and lasting a decade or more, not when shingles/herpes zoster carried 3 times the rate of hospitalization and 5 time the rate of death of CP in children" is completely unsupportable. Who predicts what here? Shingles occurs one time (in a person who isn't immunocompromised), in 15% of the people who had a past infection with chicken pox (meaning just about everyone).
Unless you are talking about people with HIV or perhaps a bone marrow transplant and some very weak elderly persons, who are these people hospitalized with shingles?
Herpes zoster develops most frequently among immunocompromised persons and the elderly. Disseminated herpes zoster with generalized skin eruptions and central nervous system, pulmonary, hepatic, and pancreatic involvement is more likely to occur in immunocompromised persons than in the general population.
And the vaccine initiated epidemic of shingles...
The incidence of herpes zoster after varicella vaccination among otherwise healthy children is approximately 18 per 100,000 person years of follow-up (Merck and Company, Inc., unpublished data). A population-based study indicated that the incidence of herpes zoster after natural varicella infection among healthy children was 77 per 100,000 person years. However, these two rates should be compared cautiously, because the latter rate was based on a larger pediatric population that was monitored for a longer period of time than were the vaccinees (92,93). One case of herpes zoster has been reported among adult vaccinees, resulting in an incidence of 12.8 per 100,000 person years. Although unknown, the rate of herpes zoster in unvaccinated adults is expected to be higher than that in adult vaccinees. All of the vaccinees' illnesses were mild and without complications. Wild-type virus was identified in one vaccinated child and one vaccinated adult by using restriction endonuclease analysis in cultures from vesicles, which suggests that some herpes zoster cases in vaccinees may result from antecedent natural varicella infection (Merck and Company, Inc., unpublished data;94).
Raven 1 said:
The risk of hep b in infants and children born to un-infected mothers is MINUTE. Do the math. The ONLY reason this vaccine was introduced universally was in an effort to “catch” those high risk teens and adults who refused vaccination by vaccinating them as infants/children.
Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Part 1: Immunization of Infants, Children, and Adolescents
The recommendation to vaccinate everyone for hep B was based on risk of disease in the population, not on vaccinating children before they became old enough to refuse, and
the reason to continue the recommendation including a dose just after birth was based on the incidence of hep B in that age group. I have done the math. Risk of disease is > risk of vaccine. Benefit of vaccine > risk of not vaccinating.
Raven 1 said:
But the vaccine has not proven more than a decade or so of protection, unlike the illness itself, which is most often benign in those past infancy and confers lifelong immunity, so we will likely find ourselves even worse off, with an entire population of at-risk for exposure/infection adults, many of them women of childbearing age whose infants stand the greatest risk from exposure to hep b, with NO immunity and who, like those before them, fail to cooperate wrt going in for their shots.
Logic and facts are lacking here. The vaccine now has a 30 year track record of maintained immunity after the initial series and a very small vaccine failure rate. For your other conclusions to be true, the population being vaccinated as children and adolescents now, would have to already have a high degree of immunity, and they don't. And if they did the vaccine would have no effect one way or the other. And you also contradict your previous statement that the risk comes when people are old enough to use drugs. And you contradict your previous statement that it is infants at risk of disease while those infected at older ages merely get lifetime immunity, which you said they didn't need because if infected at older ages they just get lifetime immunity......my head is spinning.
The bottom line is you have most of these facts distorted. Hep B does indeed have a greater risk of chronic infection the younger it is acquired. But that by no means makes older children and adults safe from fatal disease. Before the vaccine, ~200 health care workers DIED every year from the 12,000 annual infections that health care workers got on the job. That's why they were the first group vaccine was recommended for.
Raven 1 said:
The risk of flu for children is very small; the recommendations for them were aimed at preventing transmission to adults, not protecting children, and in fact, several studies have found the vaccine virtually ineffective in young children anyway!
Prevention and Control of Influenza
Again you have your facts distorted. Vaccine was recommended for children 6 months to 2 years because every year during flu season, a greater number of children in that age group were hospitalized with influenza or symptoms of influenza, (not cultured), than in children in other age groups. And like I noted earlier, it isn't safe to go to the hospital. They have bad germs there and have been known to make mistakes.
Among children aged 0--4 years, hospitalization rates have ranged from approximately 500/100,000 children for those with high-risk medical conditions to 100/100,000 children for those without high-risk medical conditions (53--56). Within the 0--4 year age group, hospitalization rates are highest among children aged 0--1 years and are comparable to rates reported among persons aged >65 years (55,56) (Table 1).
It is only now being considered to vaccinate children to decrease the rate of flu in the elderly whom the vaccine is less effective in.
OTOH, health care workers in my field, infectious diseases, for the most part make sure our own children get a flu vaccine every year. Because in reality, we are well aware that the flu kills healthy children and adults every year. The risk of serious vaccine complications is much much less likely.
Raven 1 said:
Mumps, Rubella, even Measles, are typically benign childhood illnesses which confer a higher rate of lifelong immunity than vaccination against them does. Measles is by far the most dangerous to children, and the mortality rate is 1%.
Does "typically benign" and "mortality of 1%" really mean the same thing to you? Even it it was a typo and you meant 1% mortality in Africa, the figures for measles in Western nations are 1/1,000 cases result in death and 1/1,000 more result in permanent neurological damage.
These infections do indeed have age related risk levels that differ. Rubella, of course, is most associated with horrible congenital defects. Measles is more dangerous if you are under age 2 or over age 15. Mumps and chicken pox are also more dangerous for infants and adults. But all of these diseases are much more dangerous than the vaccines used against them.
Raven 1 said:
In AFRICA. Lower by at least half in the developed world, though the death rate has been increasing recently in the US, mainly due to a higher percentage of cases in infants lacking natural maternal immunity/born to vaccinated mothers and in adults whose vaccine immunity has waned. Read carefully, now, I said the RATE of death; there is no question that vaccination has reduced INCIDENCE dramatically, but the evidence is clear that the death rates for most of the illnesses had declined by 80% or more prior to vaccination in the US, even as incidence remained near universal.
This is just all bad data. The death rate has not been increasing due to any lack of maternal antibody. You have been reading very unreliable sources.
At this point your statements which started out more reasonably have now become filled with junk science. Others have long posts in response and I have taken the time to look up reliable data to this point. I'm going to stop here and refer you to other's posts for details on your other incorrect facts.
So just a few more comments on some errors of logic...
Raven 1 said:
Polio is asymptomatic or mild in over 95% of cases. This is an interesting one, since it is the one for which improvements in sanitation and hygiene proved a negative, not a positive, since most used to be exposed in infancy via contaminated water and gain lifelong immunity and after the advent of municipal water supplies and indoor plumbing most failed to gain immunity and were more prone to more severe cases as older children/adults.
So if we just let that 5% get their polio then the rest are immune. Prone to severe cases as adults???? One famous president got a rare case of paralytic polio as an adult. The vast majority of cases are children. Did you not bother to check these inaccurate facts?
Raven 1 said:
Diptheria has long been known to be primarily a disease of the malnourished, alcoholic, and otherwise weakened host. The Russian epidemic involved mainly those who’d been vaccinated several times against the illness and centered on the most destitute adult populations.
Why have we not had an epidemic of Diptheria in the US yet, considering that the vaccine has been demonstrated to confer immunity for only 10 yrs and so most past 16 or so can be assumed to be non-immune? (even considering those who get their tetanus boosters which may or may not contain the D component; MOST don’t get either, so why no rise in tetanus OR diptheria?)
Mind bogglingly inaccurate statements.
Raven 1 said:
I have always found the CDC to be extremely biased and selective in their presentation of information.
And the reason you believe this is?... Everything the ACIP recommends they support with citations one can evaluate. Other reliable sources concur. Other countries' equivalent CDCs concur. The WHO concurs. Volunteer organizations like
the Immunization Action Coalition concur. Who concurs with the sources you believe to be correct?
Raven 1 said:
That is your subjective opinion. (and a very handy way of dismissing the views of someone you disagree with; oh, you can’t possibly have reached THAT conclusion based on the best science, lol!) I could just as easily say that you could not possibly have reached YOUR conclusions based on the best science. I doubt you’d appreciate that. BTW, I think I made clear that the information I found was from the CDC, IOM, peer-reviewed studies, product inserts, and the like, NOT “anti-vax dot com”. I didn’t even HAVE the internet back then, or access to much “alternative” vaccine information. I did it the old fashioned way, by poring over the stacks and microfilm at the library/seeking out hard copy.
No, it isn't subjective opinion. I did indeed give you sources. You have distorted interpretations of information, inaccurate information, and no citations which whether you can hot link or not can still be cited. I can cut and paste into Google to find something, I don't need a link.
Whatever material you poured over, if these conclusions came from that material, you wasted a lot of time.
Raven 1 said:
..
I am in no way advising anyone wrt their decision on vaccines, or slamming them altogether. I am firmly in favor of fully informed choice, which includes the choice to refuse vaccines if the evidence points to them NOT being in the best interests of your child, as I did.
We all believe in informed choice. It's the information that is at issue. Science vs junk science.
Raven 1 said:
I encounter parents all the time who have become convinced through very unscientific information TO vaccinate their children with anything and everything, every few mths that they are told to. Most don’t even KNOW which vaccines their child GOT at their last check-up, or the nature of the illnesses they are supposed to protect them from.
I personally find that just as offensive, to not have the slightest clue what your child was just injected with or why, to just accept it on faith as “what they were supposed to have”.
These are often the same parents who think giving OTC medications “cures” an illness (“Oh, it’s ok, she had a fever but I gave her Tylenol so she won’t get sick.”) or who feed their kids JUNK and then wonder why they are sick all the time.
I am not offended by those who disagree with me, however.
But it's as shame you don't bother to look at other information.
I began this post because you made statements about critical thinking and implied using a scientific basis for conclusions. But this post indicates you are not a critical thinker at all. Rather you choose information that fits some pre-determined belief system. It's too bad.
We're all wasting our time. Instead of debating any information source specifically, you prefer to argue beliefs. Present some data, hot linked or not. We can discuss the validity of it. Otherwise don't make claims about critical thinking because you really don't seem to understand what that means.