Study quashes vaccine anxiety

Where did your numbers and information come from? My understanding is the ACIP claims 90% with first dose and 95% with the second and the numbers come from seroprevalence studies done when measles started reappearing in the early 90s.
My numbers come from the CDC. It's on their Mumps "technical information" page...and, they're sending all their info to the Iowa DOH page, which also gives the "the vaccine is 95% effective" stories of how there are 100 students, five are not immune coz the vax didn't take, so the virus spreads.
But on the Mumps "technical information" page in the "epidemic update" section, it says one dose is 70-80% effective, and in the conference the CDC director had a couple of weeks ago she was insisting the vaccine had no problems, and in the teleconference with their chick in charge of viral diseases, she said the vaccine effectiveness was so low it probably wouldn't turn up on titre checks.
This is all on the CDC's website.

ETA:
http://www.cdc.gov/nip/diseases/mumps/mumps-tech-faqs.htm
In one study 86.6% of vaccinees had evidence of mumps seroconversion at 4 weeks after immunization and 93.3% had evidence of seroconversion after 5 weeks.

http://www.cdc.gov/nip/diseases/mumps/mumps-tech-faqs.htm
The vaccine effectiveness for one dose of MMR is 70-80% and 80-90% for two doses.
http://www.idph.state.ia.us/adper/common/pdf/mumps/explaining_effectiveness.pdf
The mumps vaccine (part of the MMR vaccine) is about 95% effective.
• This means out of every 100 people vaccinated, 95 will be protected. However, the vaccine will not “take” in 5 people, and these people will remain susceptible to the disease.
• By comparison, the measles vaccine (also part of the MMR vaccine) is about 98% effective and the annual influenza vaccine is about 70-85% effective.

http://www.cdc.gov/nip/diseases/mumps/control-hcw.htm

Serologic evidence of immunity (i.e., positive mumps IgG):
In unvaccinated persons or persons with a history of mumps disease, presence of mumps specific antibodies should be considered evidence of natural infection and immunity. However, a history of physician-diagnosed mumps is considered reliable proof of immunity and antibody testing of such individuals is not recommended.
Results of serum antibody tests in vaccinated persons are difficult to interpret and such testing is NOT recommended. In vaccinated persons, antibody levels are often lower than following natural infection, and commercially available tests may not detect such low levels of antibody. In addition, there is no data that correlates levels of serum antibody with protection from disease. Last, there are no data on the impact of additional (greater than two) doses of mumps vaccine on antibody levels or protection from disease.
https://www.merckvaccines.com/proquadProductPage_frmst.html
First-dose immune response rates with ProQuad administered to children 12–23 months of age*
Mumps- 95.8%-98.8%
Efficacy of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella components was previously established in a series of clinical studies with the monovalent vaccines; a high degree of protection from infection was demonstrated in these studies.
http://www.merck.com/mrkshared/mmanual/section19/chapter256/256f.jsp#A019-256-0178
Mumps (see also Mumps under Viral Infections in Ch. 265): Live mumps vaccine produces protective antibodies in 95% of those vaccinated


http://www.merck.com/mrkshared/CVMH...d=immunization&domain=www.merck.com#hl_anchor
Live mumps virus vaccine is the agent of choice for active immunization (see Childhood Immunizations in Ch. 256). This vaccine produces no significant local or systemic reaction and requires only one injection.

And editing in to add the stuff about exactly how effective a mumps vax needs to be for it to not result in a disease burdon shift into an older age group:
http://www.who.int/vaccines/en/mumps.shtml
National decisions to implement large-scale mumps vaccination should be based on careful cost-benefit analyses. As insufficient childhood vaccination coverage may result in an unfortunate epidemiological shift in the incidence of mumps to older age groups, childhood mumps vaccination should aim at a 80% coverage rate, or higher.
http://www.vhpb.org/files/html/Meet...doc/A5EQuestionsandAnswersonVaccineSafety.pdf
For example, insufficient childhood mumps vaccination coverage (below
80%) may result in an undesirable epidemiological shift in the incidence of mumps to older
age groups
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec1181/017.htm
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec1181/018.htm
Nevertheless, there is also a risk: because of the phenomenon of herd immunity, under certain circumstances, a vaccination programme can do more harm than good on a population basis.
This might arise if a/ the target disease has more severe clinical consequences in adults than in children, and b/ the vaccination coverage achieved is below a certain threshold (the "sorcerer’s apprentice" situation).
Such diseases include rubella, chickenpox, mumps, hepatitis A.
 
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See, though, Skeptigirl...the ACIP trusts that the FDA has verified manufacturer claims.
For example, the manufacturer of the MMR claims a 96% seroconversion rate for the mumps component of the MMR.
And this is obviously untrue.
The immunization plan for a vaccine that seroconverts 65-70% with the first dose, and 80-90% for the second dose is going to be totally different from a plan that expects 96% seroconversion with the first dose, and closer to 100% with the second.
I recently read that the mumps seroconversion rate is indeed less than that previously claimed, so you have a point here. Rejigging of the schedules to cope with new information will probably have to take place.

Good science works in this way - it takes on board new information and ensures that practices are changed accordingly. It does not mean that those whose research/work produced the previous information were necessarily culpable in some way however.
 
RE the Simpsonwood transcript:

I read through half of the transcript and the last few pages. It isn't as impressive as you make it sound. Below is a link to the actual research publication written up by the authors who presented the data at the conference the transcription is from.

Safety of Thimerosal-Containing Vaccines: A Two-Phased Study of Computerized Health Maintenance Organization Databases
Thomas Verstraeten, MD*,{ddagger}, Robert L. Davis, MD, MPH§, Frank DeStefano, MD, MPH{ddagger}, Tracy A. Lieu, MD, MPH||, Philip H. Rhodes, PhD{ddagger}, Steven B. Black, MD¶, Henry Shinefield, MD¶, Robert T. Chen, MD{ddagger} for the Vaccine Safety Datalink Team
Conclusion: In our analyses of computerized HMO data, we found no consistent significant associations between TCVs and neurodevelopmental outcomes. In the first phase of our study, we found an association between exposure to Hg from TCVs and some of the neurodevelopmental outcomes screened. In the second phase, these associations were not replicated for the most common disorders in an independent population. Although the lack of consistency between the 2 phases argues against a thimerosal effect, we believe that additional investigation is required because of the widespread exposure from vaccinating virtually the entire birth cohort of the United States and the importance of speech and language disorders among children and adolescents. For elucidating further whether a causal association exists between thimerosal exposure and neurodevelopmental conditions, additional studies with different designs will be needed. A study with neuropsychological testing of children with different thimerosal exposures would address one of the main limitations of our present study: the reliance on administrative medical records for outcome assessment. Although such a study might also avoid ascertainment bias that may have affected the results of this study, it might still be susceptible to confounding if factors that influence parents’ decision to have their children vaccinated timely are also related to their children’s neurodevelopment. Although this bias could conceivably be eliminated by conducting a randomized controlled trial, such a trial would not be ethically feasible given current recommendations that thimerosal not be included in routine infant vaccines. The best alternative is to evaluate the development of children who were enrolled in previous randomized vaccine trials in which the vaccines contained similar antigens but differed by thimerosal content.
The thing I was most struck by in the transcripts was
... the daily consumption of methylmercury, and it might surprise some of you. For infants six to 11 months of age, about .5 micrograms per day. Two year olds, 1.3. Females 25 to 30 years, around 3. Males, 3.9. On a body weight basis for the intake, it is equivalent to about 0.05 micrograms per kilogram per day, except two year olds and that would be a little higher. For health professionals the values are higher. 8.2 for females, 8.6 for males. Health professionals probably eat more health and eat more fish. Canadians also consume a lot of fish, so you can see the values are higher. What is interesting is the relationship of mercury in the blood, or in this case the hair, of the mothers versus the children. They are pretty close, and I would assume that even though this was at 66 months of age, the 6.5 ppm, that would probably be very similar as an infant and a newborn. Particularly because methylmercury can cross the placental barrier.

Six Neurobehavioral Tests were conducted on children at 66 months of age. Quoting the articles, "none of the tests indicated an adverse effect on methylmercury exposure" and in fact, "four of the six measures showed better scores in the highest methylmercury exposed group."

I then looked at the literature again as I have done so several times after discussions like this one. There are limitations given I only have pubmed abstracts for the papers I'd really like to see the full text from but I didn't have more time for the moment.

It seems Geier and Geier are convinced they see an association with thimerosal in vaccines. Their article notes Medcon Inc. as sponsor or employer of at least one of them. It seems to be some cardiology imaging company recently bought by another company, McKesson which is more of a medical supplies distributor. I have no clue if Medcon has anything to do with the study since I only have the abstracts here.

A two-phased population epidemiological study of the safety of thimerosal-containing vaccines: a follow-up analysis.
Med Sci Monit. 2005 Apr;11(4):CR160-70. Epub 2005 Mar 24.
Geier DA, Geier MR.

MedCon, Inc., USA.

BACKGROUND: Thimerosal is an ethylmercury-containing preservative in vaccines. Toxicokinetic studies have shown children received doses of mercury from thimerosal-containing vaccines (TCVs) that were in excess of safety guidelines. Previously, an ecological study showing a significant association between TCVs and neurodevelopmental disorders (NDs) in the US was published in this journal. MATERIAL/METHODS: A two phased population-based epidemiological study was undertaken. Phase one evaluated reported NDs to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) following thimerosal-containing Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular-Pertussis (DTaP) vaccines in comparison to thimerosal-free DTaP vaccines administered from 1997 through 2001. Phase two evaluated the automated Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) for cumulative exposures to mercury from TCVs at 1-, 2-, 3-, and 6-months-of-age for infants born from 1992 through 1997 and the eventual risk of developing NDs. RESULTS: Phase one showed significantly increased risks for autism, speech disorders, mental retardation, personality disorders, and thinking abnormalities reported to VAERS following thimerosal-containing DTaP vaccines in comparison to thimerosal-free DTaP vaccines. Phase two showed significant associations between cumulative exposures to thimerosal and the following types of NDs: unspecified developmental delay, tics, attention deficit disorder (ADD), language delay, speech delay, and neurodevelopmental delays in general. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that exposure to mercury from TCVs administered in the US was a consistent significant risk factor for the development of NDs. It is clear from these data and other recent publications linking TCVs with NDs that additional ND research should be undertaken in the context of evaluating mercury-associated exposures and thimerosal-free vaccines should be made available.

Int J Toxicol. 2004 Nov-Dec;23(6):369-76.
Neurodevelopmental disorders following thimerosal-containing childhood immunizations: a follow-up analysis.
Geier D, Geier MR.

MedCon, Inc., Maryland, USA.

The authors previously published the first epidemiological study from the United States associating thimerosal from childhood vaccines with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDs) based upon assessment of the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). A number of years have gone by since their previous analysis of the VAERS. The present study was undertaken to determine whether the previously observed effect between thimerosal-containing childhood vaccines and NDs are still apparent in the VAERS as children have had a chance to further mature and potentially be diagnosed with additional NDs. In the present study, a cohort of children receiving thimerosal-containing diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccines in comparison to a cohort of children receiving thimerosal-free DTaP vaccines administered from 1997 through 2000 based upon an assessment of adverse events reported to the VAERS were evaluated. It was determined that there were significantly increased odds ratios (ORs) for autism (OR = 1.8, p < .05), mental retardation (OR = 2.6, p < .002), speech disorder (OR = 2.1, p < .02), personality disorders (OR = 2.6, p < .01), and thinking abnormality (OR = 8.2, p < .01) adverse events reported to the VAERS following thimerosal-containing DTaP vaccines in comparison to thimerosal-free DTaP vaccines. Potential confounders and reporting biases were found to be minimal in this assessment of the VAERS. It was observed, even though the media has reported a potential association between autism and thimerosal exposure, that the other NDs analyzed in this assessment of the VAERS had significantly higher ORs than autism following thimerosal-containing DTaP vaccines in comparison to thimerosal-free DTaP vaccines. The present study provides additional epidemiological evidence supporting previous epidemiological, clinical and experimental evidence that administration of thimerosal-containing vaccines in the United States resulted in a significant number of children developing NDs.
I'd love to see these studies. The results are extreme given other researchers are not reporting the same.

Large studies in England did not find the same results. And, the authors of the study in the Simpsonwood transcript have not found the association as they collected further data according to the abstract I quoted above.

Thimerosal exposure in infants and developmental disorders: a retrospective cohort study in the United kingdom does not support a causal association.
PEDIATRICS Vol. 114 No. 3 September 2004, pp. 584-591 (doi:10.1542/peds.2003-1177-L)

Andrews N, Miller E, Grant A, Stowe J, Osborne V, Taylor B.

Statistics Unit, Health Protection Agency, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, United Kingdom.
A retrospective cohort study was performed using 109 863 children who were born from 1988 to 1997 and were registered in general practices in the United Kingdom that contributed to a research database. The disorders investigated were general developmental disorders, language or speech delay, tics, attention-deficit disorder, autism, unspecified developmental delays, behavior problems, encopresis, and enuresis. Exposure was defined according to the number of DTP/DT doses received by 3 and 4 months of age and also the cumulative age-specific DTP/DT exposure by 6 months. Each DTP/DT dose of vaccine contains 50 microg of thimerosal (25 microg of ethyl mercury). Hazard ratios (HRs) for the disorders were calculated per dose of DTP/DT vaccine or per unit of cumulative DTP/DT exposure. RESULTS: Only in 1 analysis for tics was there some evidence of a higher risk with increasing doses (Cox's HR: 1.50 per dose at 4 months; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-2.20). Statistically significant negative associations with increasing doses at 4 months were found for general developmental disorders (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.81-0.93), unspecified developmental delay (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.69-0.92), and attention-deficit disorder (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.64-0.98). For the other disorders, there was no evidence of an association with thimerosal exposure.
CONCLUSIONS: With the possible exception of tics, there was no evidence that thimerosal exposure via DTP/DT vaccines causes neurodevelopmental disorders.

Thimerosal exposure in infants and developmental disorders: a prospective cohort study in the United kingdom does not support a causal association.
PEDIATRICS Vol. 114 No. 3 September 2004, pp. 577-583 (doi:10.1542/peds.2003-1176-L)

Jon Heron, PhD, Jean Golding, DSc and the ALSPAC Study Team

We used population data from a longitudinal study on childhood health and development. The study has been monitoring >14,000 children who are from the geographic area formerly known as Avon, United Kingdom, and were delivered in 1991-1992. The age at which doses of thimerosal-containing vaccines were administered was recorded, and measures of mercury exposure by 3, 4, and 6 months of age were calculated and compared with a number of measures of childhood cognitive and behavioral development covering the period from 6 to 91 months of age. RESULTS: Contrary to expectation, it was common for the unadjusted results to suggest a beneficial effect of thimerosal exposure. For example, exposure at 3 months was inversely associated with hyperactivity and conduct problems at 47 months; motor development at 6 months and at 30 months; difficulties with sounds at 81 months; and speech therapy, special needs, and "statementing" at 91 months. After adjustment for birth weight, gestation, gender, maternal education, parity, housing tenure, maternal smoking, breastfeeding, and ethnic origins, we found 1 result of 69 to be in the direction hypothesized-poor prosocial behavior at 47 months was associated with exposure by 3 months of age (odds ratio: 1.12; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.23) compared with 8 results that still supported a beneficial effect. CONCLUSIONS: We could find no convincing evidence that early exposure to thimerosal had any deleterious effect on neurologic or psychological outcome.

Unfortunately the following abstract does not hint at the findings, only the methodology.
Mercury exposure in children: a review.
Toxicol Appl Pharmacol. 2004 Jul 15;198(2):209-30.

Mercury exposure in children: a review.

Counter SA, Buchanan LH.

Department of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Biological Laboratories, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. allen_Counter@harvard.edu

Exposure to toxic mercury (Hg) is a growing health hazard throughout the world today. Recent studies show that mercury exposure may occur in the environment, and increasingly in occupational and domestic settings. Children are particularly vulnerable to Hg intoxication, which may lead to impairment of the developing central nervous system, as well as pulmonary and nephrotic damage. Several sources of toxic Hg exposure in children have been reported in biomedical literature: (1) methylmercury, the most widespread source of Hg exposure, is most commonly the result of consumption of contaminated foods, primarily fish; (2) ethylmercury, which has been the subject of recent scientific inquiry in relation to the controversial pediatric vaccine preservative thimerosal; (3) elemental Hg vapor exposure through accidents and occupational and ritualistic practices; (4) inorganic Hg through the use of topical Hg-based skin creams and in infant teething powders; (5) metallic Hg in dental amalgams, which release Hg vapors, and Hg2+ in tissues. This review examines recent epidemiological studies of methylmercury exposure in children. Reports of elemental Hg vapor exposure in children through accidents and occupational practices, and the more recent observations of the increasing use of elemental Hg for magico-religious purposes in urban communities are also discussed. Studies of inorganic Hg exposure from the widespread use of topical beauty creams and teething powders, and fetal/neonatal Hg exposure from maternal dental amalgam fillings are reviewed. Considerable attention was given in this review to pediatric methylmercury exposure and neurodevelopment because it is the most thoroughly investigated Hg species. Each source of Hg exposure is reviewed in relation to specific pediatric health effects, particularly subtle neurodevelopmental disorders.

[Mercury in vaccines]
Hessel L.

Thiomersal, also called thimerosal, is an ethyl mercury derivative used as a preservative to prevent bacterial contamination of multidose vaccine vials after they have been opened. Exposure to low doses of thiomersal has essentially been associated with hypersensitivity reactions. Nevertheless there is no evidence that allergy to thiomersal could be induced by thiomersal-containing vaccines. Allergy to thiomersal is usually of delayed-hypersensitivity type, but its detection through cutaneous tests is not very reliable. Hypersensitivity to thiomersal is not considered as a contraindication to the use of thiomersal-containing vaccines. In 1999 in the USA, thiomersal was present in approximately 30 different childhood vaccines, whereas there were only 2 in France. Although there were no evidence of neurological toxicity in infants related to the use of thiomersal-containing vaccines, the FDA considered that the cumulative dose of mercury received by young infants following vaccination was high enough (although lower than the FDA threshold for methyl mercury) to request vaccine manufacturers to remove thiomersal from vaccine formulations. Since 2002, all childhood vaccines used in Europe and the USA are thiomersal-free or contain only minute amounts of thiomersal. Recently published studies have shown that the mercury levels in the blood, faeces and urine of children who had received thiomersal-containing vaccines were much lower than those accepted by the American Environmental Protection Agency. It has also been demonstrated that the elimination of mercury in children was much faster than what was expected on the basis of studies conducted with methyl mercury originating from food. Recently, the hypothesis that mercury contained in vaccines could be the cause of autism and other neurological developmental disorders created a new debate in the medical community and the general public. To date, none of the epidemiological studies conducted in Europe and elsewhere support this assumption. Although any effort should be made to avoid useless exposure of vaccinees to a potentially toxic compound, it should be emphasized that 1) public communication on this issue has led to a decrease in the hepatitis B vaccination coverage of children born to HBs Ag positive mothers in the US; 2) this issue was not really relevant in France where until 2002, apart from two hepatitis B vaccines, all childhood vaccines were thiomersal-free, and 3) in developing countries using multidose vaccine vials, moving to thiomersal-free vaccines in unidose presentations would represent such an incremental cost that millions of children would no more have access to vaccination. Therefore the World Health Organisation still recommends the use of thiomersal-containing vaccines as part of the expanded programme of immunisation.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/...it profile of thiomersal-containing vaccines.
Without a preservative, such as thiomersal (known as thimerosal in the US), multi-dose liquid presentations of vaccine are vulnerable to bacteriological contamination that can result in death or serious illness of the recipient. Concerns about levels of mercury exposure from thiomersal-containing vaccines were first raised in the US during 1999 in the context of Hepatitis B vaccine for newborns. Since then, a large body of evidence from animal and epidemiological studies has accumulated on the safety of thiomersal. Ironically, these data have become largely irrelevant in wealthy countries, where mono-dose, thiomersal-free vaccines have been introduced as a precautionary measure in almost all childhood vaccines, in part related to residual public scepticism. In poor countries, multi-dose vials remain important for vaccine delivery. There is a real danger that this controversy may result in the loss to the world of thiomersal as a preservative, simply from popular pressure. In reality, it would be impossible to cease overnight using thiomersal and maintain the supply of vital vaccines. This paper reviews and summarises the data available from published studies on mercury toxicity, and thiomersal in vaccines in particular, that overwhelmingly indicate continued use of thiomersal is safe in those countries where it is most needed.

This issue has been exaggerated to the point researchers cannot discuss their findings without fear of some members of the public not understanding the nature of research, especially preliminary findings. Without seeing Geier and Geier's actual data, it's impossible to say why their findings differ from much of the other research. I find the conclusion as stated in their abstract rather difficult to believe. In the meantime, removing the mercury was prudent where affordable, and not prudent where they can't afford the increased cost.

So I'd like to know how many of the parents worried about vaccines are also not allowing their children to eat any fish? How many moms ate fish while breastfeeding? Or while pregnant?





Re the seroconversions, I noted measles and you noted mumps. I'll look more closely at your post tomorrow.
 
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RE the Simpsonwood transcript:

I read through half of the transcript and the last few pages. It isn't as impressive as you make it sound. Below is a link to the actual research publication written up by the authors who presented the data at the conference the transcription is from.

Safety of Thimerosal-Containing Vaccines: A Two-Phased Study of Computerized Health Maintenance Organization Databases
Thomas Verstraeten, MD*,{ddagger}, Robert L. Davis, MD, MPH§, Frank DeStefano, MD, MPH{ddagger}, Tracy A. Lieu, MD, MPH||, Philip H. Rhodes, PhD{ddagger}, Steven B. Black, MD¶, Henry Shinefield, MD¶, Robert T. Chen, MD{ddagger} for the Vaccine Safety Datalink Team
Your link is from three years after the original meeting, three years after thimerosal was removed from most childhood vaccines.
Here's one analysis of what happened between the first analysis and the last.
http://www.putchildrenfirst.org/media/2.15.pdf
Regardless of which side you're on, you have to wonder, why wasn't the data published later that month the way it was scheduled to?
It was announced at the beginning of the meeting that the CDC was going to publish their findings later that month.
Why didn't that happen?
Why did it take the FOIA to get it?

Regarding the Giers, since they're generally considered lunatics, I'm not sure there's any point looking at their studies.
But last week Glen Nowak, (remember him? he's the creator of recipies for creating demand for flu shots via fear of the flu) held a CDC press conference about a new study they (the CDC) did where they also found a "statistically insignificant" (>30%?) increase in autism in the age group of children that recieved thimerosal containing vaccines.
 
I recently read that the mumps seroconversion rate is indeed less than that previously claimed, so you have a point here. Rejigging of the schedules to cope with new information will probably have to take place.

Good science works in this way - it takes on board new information and ensures that practices are changed accordingly. It does not mean that those whose research/work produced the previous information were necessarily culpable in some way however.
I generally agree with you.
For example, the reason the pertussis vaccine doesn't work as well as was always assumed isn't because of any reason that anyone could have expected. With pertussis, seroconversion really doesn't necessarily equal immunity.
But with the Mumps, the seroconversion rate is something that is plain as day and correlates with immunity every time. Either there's a high titre or there's not, and the manufacturer's 95% claim could not have been an "Oops...no one thought of factor X, so that changes things"...it's just an absolute untruth.
Vaccinate someone for mumps, and then do a titre check, and there's a good chance that when you go to check for antibodies, you won't find any.
That is something that the FDA could have and should have caught.
 
Either you had bad information or it was before my time in the infectious disease world.

It would have been roughly 10 years ago. Long enough I no longer remember the details.
FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION NATIONAL IMMUNIZATION PROGRAM RECORD OF THE MEETING OF THE ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON IMMUNIZATION PRACTICES June 23-24, 2004 Atlanta Marriott...[/url]
It's a WORD DOC describing the meeting minutes:Considering how many people are on the committee, whether attending this meeting or not, this can hardly be considered a group with heavy ties to the vaccine industry.

There needs to be manufacturer medical experts involved. Not everyone in industry needs to be viewed with total distrust. A healthy dose of skepticism maybe, but not total suspicion.

I agree. I would term my approach of one of healthy skepticism not total suspicion. I think it is reasonable to have industry representation. What I don't find reasonable is to have a large proportion of voting committee members with such ties to the manufactures. When I researched the issue, that was the case, and it was documented by the required filing of conflict of interest waivers for those members of the committee. I feel the reason such waivers are required is so interested members of the public (such as myself) can find out and judge for ourselves whether the potential bias on committee recommendations is a concern. I found it to be of concern and therefore, take that bias into account when making my decisions.

If I am capable of reading a manufacturer's research with appropriate skepticism, these committee members are as well. So to categorize any representatives from the manufacturers on the committee as necessarily suspect would be incorrect.
I'm not sure exactly what you are meaning by suspicion. Suspecting bias due in committee recommendations due to the documented affliations of members is not the same as being suspicious of the individuals committee members compentence, capabilities or motivations. Although many people do take it as such, that is not my concern. If "Groupthink" is a term you are familiar with, that comes closer to expressing my concern.
Of course we all hope GW won't install his cronies there like he has in the FDA. If he does, the infectious disease community will protest very loudly.
I don't know that he hasn't already and I don't know that even if the infectious disease committee were to protest I would hear about it. I don't follow the news closely these days. I find it too depressing and upsetting. At any rate, you've hit apon a serious problem that does concern me.

Besides the Rotovirus vaccine that had unexpected reaction in a very few patients, just which vaccines are you referring to? DPT was the best available until a better one produced later. Live polio vaccine is better for controlling large endemic disease burden and the killed vaccine adequate when only imported cases are occurring. Just what are you calling a "mistake"?

The Rotovirus is one such example. The original HepB vaccine given to infants is another. Just a few months after my son was born, the vaccine which I had refused for him as a newborn was taken off the recommended list for newborns.

Now, on the one hand, I'm glad the committee is willing to acknowledge such errors. On the other hand, such incidents make me disinclined to jump on the bandwagon when a new vaccine is introduced. I think they are both, as least in part, due to the bias of the committee towards vaccinatiosn. At any rate, I now figure that if I wait 5 to 10 years, such problems should surface and be corrected.

Again, absolutely untrue. VAERS is geared toward acute vaccine reactions but that doesn't mean it is the only monitoring of vaccine safety and effectiveness that goes on. There was no reason to address thimerisol until more recently. There is not a single case of a thimerisol caused adverse reaction except allergic reactions, no matter how many people believe there are. And allergic reactions have been addressed quite a ways back.

First of all, I haven't said anything about VAERS. Nor do I want to get into the thimerisol debate although Kelly posted some interesting information on that. My point is that until the thimerisol issue came up, no one was thinking about asking such questions or about checking to see if there were any cummulative effects that occurred as more vaccines were added into the routine childhood vaccination schedule. Personally, I think that the fact that the ACIP committee never considered checking for such problems prior to adding a vaccination to the schedule is another manifestation of the bias that I was concerned about resulting from too many members of the committee have documented conflicts of interests.

I think it's a fascinating but unfortunate occurrence. Why are people suspicious of vaccines? There aren't equivalent movements of anti-antibiotic believers? There are anti-medicine groups suspicious of all modern medicine but there aren't specific targets like vaccines are.

I think you are mistaken here. Ritalin qualifies as one such target.

Given the increase in immigrants in this country from countries with high rates of hepatitis B, I wouldn't wait on that one. Sexual intercourse is not the only place an exposure can occur.

I'm aware of this. What I don't understand is why my son's risk prior to that age would be any higher than my own? Why should I get him vaccinated but not myself?

Not only do I have confidence in the ACIP, they spell out every detail of their decision making rationale for all to evaluate. Why rely on experts when you can look directly at the evidence? You think it's the value assigned to potential risk. In reading your posts, you have not talked about the actual potential risks as much as distrust of vaccine manufacturers, distrust of the ACIP, and distrust of the information provided by those sources. That leads you to perceive a potential risk. The way I assign a value to potential risk is to look at the vaccine research, not at the experts. Get rid of the middleman. Explain to yourself why you wouldn't hesitate to take an antibiotic, (I assume), but you think about vaccines differently.
I don't hesitate to get my child a vaccination when I feel the benefit is worth the risk. The issue is that I don't trust the ACIP the way you do. As far as looking at the research not the experts, I have tried. The problem is, the research is often inconclusive, it's difficult to understand and a full time job to absorb all of it. I simply don't find myself able to research it as completely as I would need to in order not to rely on experts at all.

So, instead, I have to decide which experts I will listen to and how much credence to give them. For the most part, I feel the ACIP is composed of earnest professional competent people who study the issue intently and do their level best. I listen to their recommendations and find out their reasoning for their recommendations. But I also feel that, as a whole, the group has a bias towards vaccinations, so while I listen to them, I also tweak their recommendations a bit against vaccinations to compensate for what I perceive as the bias of that group.
 
Kellyb, Skeptigirl and Raven, too, if you come back - I just wanted to say I really appreciate all the cites, quotes and links you provide. This is, IMO, a fascinating issue primarily because there is so much information. Forming an opinion can be based on as much information you have time to assimilate and which information you consider most credible and weighty.
 
I recently read that the mumps seroconversion rate is indeed less than that previously claimed, so you have a point here. Rejigging of the schedules to cope with new information will probably have to take place.

Good science works in this way - it takes on board new information and ensures that practices are changed accordingly. It does not mean that those whose research/work produced the previous information were necessarily culpable in some way however.

Deetee, I just wanted to comment that I don't think there has been much in the way of 'culpability' being assessed here. I think one of the big problems in discussing this issue rationally is when people who are arguing for vaccines misperceive those who question the risk/benefit assessment as assigning culpubility and denigrating the motivations of those who are developing, recommending and promoting vaccinations. I'm glad that the ACIP is willing to make changes and recognize mistakes. I wouldn't want that to change.
 
Fair enough.
I can see that there are vested interests at work in vaccine promotion, just as in all fields of medical practice. I wish it wasn't so, but it does muddy the waters somewhat, and antivaxers are correct to express concerns. But only if there is good reason.
 
One doesn't have to be an anti-vaxer to express concern and the presence of those vested interests is IMO a good reason for concern. I sometimes tire of getting branded as an anti-vaxer for expressing such concerns.
 
One doesn't have to be an anti-vaxer to express concern and the presence of those vested interests is IMO a good reason for concern. I sometimes tire of getting branded as an anti-vaxer for expressing such concerns.
As a provaxer, I am admitting there are legitimate reasons for concerns. But as ever, it is objectivity and the proportionality of one's reaction to these concerns that is often the issue. (I am speaking in general terms and not addressing anyone in particular here)
 
Another releveant and recent study:

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/118/1/e139?maxtoshow

The prevalence for specific pervasive developmental disorder subtypes were, for autistic disorder: 21.6 of 10000; for pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified: 32.8 of 10000; and for Asperger syndrome: 10.1 of 10000. A statistically significant linear increase in pervasive developmental disorder prevalence was noted during the study period. The prevalence of pervasive developmental disorder in thimerosal-free birth cohorts was significantly higher than that in thimerosal-exposed cohorts (82.7 of 10000 vs 59.5 of 10000). Using logistic regression models of the prevalence data, we found no significant effect of thimerosal exposure used either as a continuous or a categorical variable. Thus, thimerosal exposure was unrelated to the increasing trend in pervasive developmental disorder prevalence.

These results were robust when additional analyses were performed to address possible limitations because of the ecological nature of the data and to evaluate potential effects of misclassification on exposure or diagnosis. Measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage averaged 93% during the study interval with a statistically significant decreasing trend from 96.1% in the older birth cohorts (1988–89) to
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92.4% in younger birth cohorts (1996–1998). Thus, pervasive developmental disorder rates significantly increased when measles-mumps-rubella vaccination uptake rates significantly decreased. In addition, pervasive developmental disorder prevalence increased at the same rate before and after the introduction in 1996 of the second measles-mumps-rubella dose, suggesting no increased risk of pervasive developmental disorder associated with a 2–measles-mumps-rubella dosing schedule before age 2 years. Results held true when additional analyses were performed to test for the potential effects of misclassification on exposure or diagnostic status. Thus, no relationship was found between pervasive developmental disorder rates and 1- or 2-dose measles-mumps-rubella immunization schedule.

Vaccination prevents harm that can be caused by vaccine preventable diseases, lowering autism and other pervasive developmental disorder rates (IMO based on above results and other reading).

All three of the diseases prevented by the MMR vaccine, measles, mumps and rubella, can cause encephalitis. We would not want to leave children unprotected against these diseases for even a short period of time. The routine use of MMR has resulted in the prevention of many thousands of cases of congenital rubella syndrome, a recognized cause of autism.
http://www.vaccinesafety.edu/Testimony-O99.htm
 
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