Here is information on Sylvia's Bosnia prediction. I'm a new member so I can't yet provide any supporting links with this message, but I will provide them Mr. Lancaster separately. This may be too much information, but I thought it would be helpful to post on this forum.
1. Prediction. International 1: The war in Bosnia will not be squelched until late July; troops are sent in.
2. Score. Assuming the prediction is in two parts: WRONG and ALREADY KNOWN.
3. Facts and analysis
a. The war is widely recognized as coming to a close on December 14, 1995, with the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement in Paris. For example, Time magazine published a timeline on the Bosnia war, which shows the war ending with the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995. The Washington Post published a timeline for 1991-1998 that does not identify any major acts of hostility after the Dayton Agreement was signed. The first sentence of the Wikipedia entry on the Bosnia War states: "The War in Bosnia and Herzegovina, commonly known as the Bosnian War, was an international armed conflict that took place between March 1992 and November 1995." In fact, by December 27th, Government and rebel Serb troops pull back from area around Sarajevo to meet first deadline of the Dayton Agreement. There was no instance after this point in which these troops reestablished their positions and again took up the war.
b. The Dayton Peace Accord agreement had been negotiated in principle three weeks previously in Dayton, Ohio, on November 21, 1995. At the time, President Clinton renewed his commitment to send 20,000 troops to Bosnia as part of a U.S.-led NATO peace keeping force, which was eventually to include 60,000 troops from the U.S. and other countries. There was significant debate in Congress and in the media regarding the wisdom of sending troops into Bosnia. There was great concern about terrorism, the escalation of hostilities in the region, and the loss of U.S. lives. It is quite possible that these concerns and the media discussion regarding these issues lead Sylvia to make this prediction.
c. The reality is the cease-fire held and the hostilities between the parties stopped with the signing of the Dayton Agreement, although not without isolated instances of problems. The success was touted by the administration. On June 14, 1996, for example, Anthony Lake, who served as Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, gave a speech on "Bosnia after Dayton" before an audience at Georgetown University. In the speech, he explained how the cease-fire held, stating:
"IFOR [the NATO Implementation Force] has maintained the cease-fire and compelled the parties to pull back their forces and weapons from a 3-mile wide separation zone -- without significant incident. Nearly all heavy weapons have been placed under IFOR supervision and many will be destroyed as part of the arms control agreement to be signed in the next few days. Already, more than 100,000 soldiers not based in barracks have been demobilized. And hundreds of square miles of territory were transferred from one entity to another without a shot being fired. IFOR also has stopped the widespread killing of civilians and restored security to Sarajevo, where people now walk the streets in safety. Virtually all prisoners of war have been released and those few still in custody are being held as war crimes suspects. IFOR has moved aggressively to take down internal checkpoints and, while far from perfect, freedom of movement has improved -- between ten and fifteen thousand people cross the boundary between the Bosnia-Croat Federation and the Serb Republic every day."
d. The prediction is wrong no matter how you interpret it. While its clear that peace-keeping forces were required to ensure that all parties complied with the terms of the Dayton Agreement, there was really no "war" to "squelch" by July 1996, as it ended on December 14, 1995. NATO troops went to Bosnia to implement the Dayton agreement, not to stop or "squelch" the conflict. Nor was there anything that was "squelched" in July 1996. NATO troops remained in Bosnia for many years performing essentially the same role and function they did when troops were introduced in 1995. Thus, there was nothing of consequence that ended in any sense in July 1996.
e. The prediction that "troops are called in" is difficult to interpret as there is so little information to go on. Called in when? To do what? Troops from what country? There were already U.N. peacekeeping troops in Bosnia in 1995. It is likely that Sylvia is referring to only U.S. troops. The fact is that it was well known, certainly by November 1995, that President Clinton intended to send U.S. troops into Bosnia. President Clinton renewed his commitment to send in troops when the Dayton Agreement was first announced on November 21, 1995, well before the predictions were published on November 30, 1995. The best that can be said about this portion of the prediction is that the facts supporting the prediction were already known.
