Spain suppressing Catalan Indyref

[Craig B]

I didn't say half those things. Catalonia would be justified in pursuing unconstitutional, unilateral independence if they had a support in excess of 80% of the electorate. That's the minimum, not what they should be aiming for.

Spanish state would also be justified in trying to stop it using non-violent means.

It's entirely possible for a conflict to arise because both parties are right. That's human society for you. If you find this unfanthomable try having a conversation with a human being face to face once in a while, you'll see what I mean

McHrozni

I asked you to be courteous in this discussion, but you have adopted a different strategy. Seeing that the contradictions in your arguments are being exposed, you doubled down on your disparaging behaviour, to act as a diversionist tactic. A puerile, literally schoolboyish, trick. Noted.

Now, in the event of a direct constitutional contradiction it is not possible for both parties to be right, even if it is possible for both sides to have a rational argument.

An example from the USA. If it is right for Black and White children to attend the same schools it cannot be right - at the same time - for state police to beat black students with billy clubs to keep them out of white schools, for example. A decision has to be made one way or another. And one was made. But until it was made, violence reigned.

That is what we have in Spain. The government must say to the cops either: "There is to be no referendum. Suppress it with force." Or: "The matter will be decided by a majority of X%. So do all you can to facilitate the electoral process."

Only madmen would say: we need a high turnout and a clear decision; so go in there, attack the voters and confiscate their ballots. That's nuts.

 

[McHrozni]

An example from the USA. If it is right for Black and White children to attend the same schools it cannot be right - at the same time - for state police to beat black students with billy clubs to keep them out of white schools, for example.

The state police is obligated to uphold the law, any law, even if the law is seen as unjust years or decades later. The police officers have the right to refuse some orders and a duty to refuse other orders, but preventing regional authorities from subverting the state because a minority of their constituents thinks they should do so does not fit the bill. Beating kinds who want to attend school is not the same as preventing a minority separatist movement from suceeding. It's not even similar.

That is what we have in Spain. The government must say to the cops either: "There is to be no referendum. Suppress it with force." Or: "The matter will be decided by a majority of X%. So do all you can to facilitate the electoral process."

The government of Spain must obey the constitution. It can say only one of those things, I think you know which one.
That does not mean the Spanish constitution is sacrosanct and nothing may ever happen that contradicsts it.

If you're having problems with understanding this you probably should just let the topic go, it's too complex for you.

Only madmen would say: we need a high turnout and a clear decision; so go in there, attack the voters and confiscate their ballots. That's nuts.

I reckon you still think all people all over the world must have the same response to everything. You're kind of funny. What you thought was childish and rude was actually right on the point. Heh.

McHrozni

 

[Craig B]

If you're having problems with understanding this you probably should just let the topic go, it's too complex for you

I reckon you still think all people all over the world must have the same response to everything. You're kind of funny. What you thought was childish and rude was actually right on the point. Heh.

Heh indeed. Dear me, what naughty things will you think up to shout next, I wonder.

Anyway it seems that the Catalans have declared independence, but suspended it. We'll see what happens now.

 

[JJM 777]

drastic and traumatic changes (...) need more than 40-45% popular support to deserve the label "democratic".

I'd support it, were the proportions twice as high.

Yeah well, well yeah. By the definition of "majority rule", 51% has the right of way, be they the defenders of current circumstances or of new different circumstances. Current circumstances have no ideologically defined advantage in the theory of democracy. Except what comes to the really big issues such as constitution. Which potentially prevents will of the majority from being implemented in some cases, by the way, so it is not necessarily a positive thing.

 

[Architect]

With respect, I'm not quite sure what you hope to bring to the table with that post beyond an attempt to goad Craig and myself into derailing the current discussion in response to your somewhat incorrect rendering of the most recent General Election Results.

Back on topic, however, McHronzi posted an old article which refers to early summer polling results. Unfortunately the Centre for Opinion Studies does not carry an English language translation of their most recent (late September) results and my command of the Iberian languages is somewhat poor, but it might be helpf if someone with greater language ability and time were to confirm where the polls were going.

As for whether an independence vote requires 50%, 60%, or 80% one has to consider whether the selection of that threshold has been selected to suit one side or the other (and if so, then why). For those who say 50% is too low, that is what the French Constitution requires. The US Constitution, as far as I can see, only requires an amendment to be ratified by three quarters of the States before it is adopted. And other countries have other benchmarks.

My view is that those who seek an unrealistically high figure, such as 80%, are seekign to impose a constitutional block that is not reflected in other political processes. On the other hand I can see the case that a simple majority of 50%+1 runs the risk of disenfranchising a substantial part of the population.

So, any chance McHrozni might bother replying to these points? Third para refers to required thresholds for constitutional amendments, major or otherwise, in case it wasn't clear.

 

[Abooga]

So, any chance McHrozni might bother replying to these points? Third para refers to required thresholds for constitutional amendments, major or otherwise, in case it wasn't clear.

If I may, the Spanish Constitution speaks of 2/3 or 3/5th s of parliamentary+ senate majorities for depending on what changes in the constitution, which should roughly correspond to a similar majority in the electorate.

In the case of Catalonia, the constitution was approved by a 61% of the electorate, so the current near 50% of independentists really have it quite difficult to convince anyone of their legitimacy to do anything at all.

 

[Architect]

And there is a case to be made, I think, for 60% as being sufficiently clear(although I may personally have a more nuanced view). But that doesn't sit pretty with McHrozni's demand for at least 80%, does it?

Also on said subject, are you able to translate the most recent poll figures? McH seems gey reluctant to do so, unless they're in Catalan in which case I appreciate that may be an issue.

 

[Craig B]

... it seems that the Catalans have declared independence, but suspended it. We'll see what happens now.

I think Puigdemont has made a serious error with his "suspended declaration". If you declare independence you must apply it fully and at once. If you want to negotiate, do that before making the declaration, and keep it as a threat in case of failure of the negotiation.

Imagine if the Scots had declared in 1320: "we will in no circumstances submit to English rule, but we're going to have a wee blether with them now about that" or if Pearse in 1916 in Dublin had proclaimed: "The Irish Republic is entitled to, and hereby claims, the allegiance of every Irishman and Irishwoman ... or at least I think it probably will after we've had another chat with Westminster" or Jefferson "We hold these truths to be self evident, or anyway I sort of believe we do but we'll ask King George to let us know his opinions" ... Not impressive.

 

[Abooga]

Also on said subject, are you able to translate the most recent poll figures? McH seems gey reluctant to do so, unless they're in Catalan in which case I appreciate that may be an issue.

In July it was 41,1% YES - 49,4% NO
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170721/424277059818/no-independencia-impone-ceo-catalanes-barometro.html
This, according to "La Vanguardia", the best known Catalan newspaper.

 

[Mycroft]

I didn't say half those things. Catalonia would be justified in pursuing unconstitutional, unilateral independence if they had a support in excess of 80% of the electorate. That's the minimum, not what they should be aiming for.

Where do you get this 80% figure?

 

[Beerina]

Sure.



Sure.



In 1918 in Ireland, the pro-independence party won about half the vote and another party which also favored greater self-rule at least won about half the remainder. Save for Northern Ireland, the pro-indepednence parties won large majorities in all electoral districts.

By comparison in 2017 Catalonia, the pro-independence parties barely manage to get half the parliament and according to our best information, manage to get 40-45% of the electorate on their side.

Why should 40-45% of the voters decide on what happens with their constituents and how is that democracy?

McHrozni

Even a small majority really doesn't have that right. The Vote is just an abstraction of might makes right, a thing more people need to keep in mind before thinking 51% is some magical number to wield the unlimited power of God.

Properly speaking, things like constitutions, and separation, or joining for that matter, are things that most people should buy into, not just a bare majority. In other words, a supermajority.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Even a small majority really doesn't have that right. The Vote is just an abstraction of might makes right, a thing more people need to keep in mind before thinking 51% is some magical number to wield the unlimited power of God.

Properly speaking, things like constitutions, and separation, or joining for that matter, are things that most people should buy into, not just a bare majority. In other words, a supermajority.

Well this need for more than a simple majority cuts both ways. If 50%+1 is not enough justification to exercise self-determination of a people then 50%-1 is not enough justification to deny self-determination of a people either.

 

[Craig B]

Properly speaking, things like constitutions, and separation, or joining for that matter, are things that most people should buy into, not just a bare majority. In other words, a supermajority.

I'm trying to get McHrozni to make up his mind whether he wants to invoke the Spanish constitution, which has complex provisions for altering the state boundaries, he tells us ; or whether he thinks the Catalans should have the right to secede without a Spain wide constitutional referendum. They don't have that right.

But what he's doing is saying they don't have that right, so the police have to arrest them and disrupt the referendum, but if the referendum has some very clear-cut result, a figure which McHrozni has pulled out of his bum, then that makes it ok. And I'm saying this is an absurd contradiction, and he has to make up his mind one way or another whether it's to be a Spanish constitutional amendment or a Catalan vote.

 

[Architect]

In July it was 41,1% YES - 49,4% NO
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politic...pendencia-impone-ceo-catalanes-barometro.html
This, according to "La Vanguardia", the best known Catalan newspaper.

As I mentioned above, the Centre for Opinion Studies does not carry an English language translation of their most recent (late September, by the looks of it) results. That would, of course, be rather later than the piece in La Vanguardia. Are you able to look at the former and translate/advise?

 

[Architect]

Properly speaking, things like constitutions, and separation, or joining for that matter, are things that most people should buy into, not just a bare majority. In other words, a supermajority.

And can you give us examples of comparable states that take this approach?

 

[Darth Rotor]

I am not sure discussing democracies and majorities is relevant to what is going on in Catalonia right now. I had multiple friends point me to this concise letter to the Financial Times by a guy named Ted Gaffney. The French Revolution, the American Revolution, heck every revolution I've studied (lately, been reading up a lot on the Mexican Revolution and "la revolucion" of the early 20th century) have been begun and pursued by an active, dedicated, and energetic minorities.

I think that point Mr Gaffney is making is worth considering; what I don't know is how willing to resort to force the separatists and the government are at this point. In recent memory, Slovenia, and Bosnia and Croatia broke away from Yugoslavia (and Serb influence) and it was not pretty. Ample lessons to be learned there.
I had a quick look at the 1934 Catalan revolt/strike against the slide of Spain to the right. One might call that a prelude to the Spanish Civil War. Just how badly do people want this? What is PM Rajoy willing and able to ask his party and his national organs to do?

It has been very interesting to watch the EU response: you don't get automatic EU membership if you secede seems to be the message.
How far will the pushing go before it falls into bloodshed? FWIW, I am not interested in seeing Spanish Civil War, Chapter II, during my life time.

 

[JJM 777]

the EU response: you don't get automatic EU membership if you secede seems to be the message.

It's not a "message". It is what is written in the membership agreements, so practically it is the law.

How far will the pushing go before it falls into bloodshed?

It looked like Britain would have allowed Scotland to get out without bloodshed, had the election result gone the other way. But that is an exception globally, there are not many countries that would allow any of their territory to be seceded without the army doing everything they can to prevent it, which would include some bloodshed. That explains the relative lack of political support to Catalonians internationally, as other countries feel a bit uneasy with the idea of an easy Catalonian independence inspiring similar processes in other countries.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It's not a "message". It is what is written in the membership agreements, so practically it is the law.


It looked like Britain would have allowed Scotland to get out without bloodshed, had the election result gone the other way. But that is an exception globally, there are not many countries that would allow any of their territory to be seceded without the army doing everything they can to prevent it, which would include some bloodshed. That explains the relative lack of political support to Catalonians internationally, as other countries feel a bit uneasy with the idea of an easy Catalonian independence inspiring similar processes in other countries.

The legal status of EU citizens resident in a region which secedes from an EU member state is as yet untested.

 

[Giz]

Where do you get this 80% figure?

Presumably set at a level high enough that no independence movement in history would have been viewed as legitimate.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

It's not a "message". It is what is written in the membership agreements, so practically it is the law.


It looked like Britain would have allowed Scotland to get out without bloodshed, had the election result gone the other way. But that is an exception globally, there are not many countries that would allow any of their territory to be seceded without the army doing everything they can to prevent it, which would include some bloodshed. That explains the relative lack of political support to Catalonians internationally, as other countries feel a bit uneasy with the idea of an easy Catalonian independence inspiring similar processes in other countries.

Yup. Not that politics as usual wasn't expected, but it's a shame, nonetheless. Rajoy has been horsetrading on this issue since before Spain blocked Kosovo. Still hasn't received his toy train set going through the middle of nowhere in exchange, though. Sad.