Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Foolmewunz said:
Coulter: We don't need Ohio, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire

She just told Hannity that "we" win with FL, VA, NC, WI, IA, CO.

Oh, and as to Nate's FL trending? Is it possible he heavily weights Gravis' lean? I don't know if I'd rely on them to be biased or not - they've just been too "all over the map" with their polls.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcLzSRZ-7RQ

"And most of all, everyone sees Obamacare coming down the tracks, and that's the end of America.... We become a pathetic Western European country."

:dl:
 
MattusMaximus said:
Okay, now it makes sense. Nate just updated his FL polls showing a big PPP poll with +1 for Obama, and I'm thinking that's a pretty big deal this late in the game.

Btw, Nate is working overtime - he just bumped FL up to 53% for Obama. I don't think the poor sod is going to sleep for the next 24 hours.
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Sleep is for wimps.
 
We'll know how serious it is in FL if Romney cancels his Pittsburgh/Cleveland election day rallies and heads to Tampa/Orlando instead. Personally, I think the last stops to appeal to the Reagan Democrats were a bit of whistling past the graveyard. He has a good organization in that area and can get a big turnout of enthusiastic people and that makes a great impression for those who want to be able to say they voted for the winner. But if FL starts to break early for Obama the rest of the country will not be getting out of their comfy chairs and bothering to go pull the red lever.
 
MattusMaximus said:
It wouldn't surprise me if it is the Obama ground game, but how does Nate Silver know that's what it is? As I said before, I still haven't seen the justification for the sudden 7 point shift in Nate's FL numbers.
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Maybe this is part of the explanation:
FiveThirtyEight said:
There is also the chance that Mr. Obama could finish toward the higher end of the polling range in most states. If Mr. Obama has gained a point or two nationally because of Hurricane Sandy or other factors, then polls taken before it may underestimate his standing in the individual states as well.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for this possibility through its trendline adjustment, which is why our forecasts now are slightly more optimistic for Mr. Obama in some states than a simple average of polls. Had there been evidence of late movement toward Mr. Romney, the trendline adjustment would instead have worked in his favor.
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(source)

If recent polls are moving in Obama's direction, then he gets a boost in that state.
 
On the prediction markets, everyone is starting to dump their Romney shares... even over at Intrade.
 
I wish I was as confident as Nate Silver and fellow jref members. The early voting trends concern me.
 
varwoche said:
Here's a news report about it.
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OTOH, Romney is no McCain so one might also look at total vote counts, not just ratios. And how about the numbers in other elections? What kind of lead predicts a Democratic candidate win or loss?

Then there is this:
It is important to note that no ballots have been counted yet, but several states offer information about party affiliation of the voters casting early ballots — a telling sign of how both sides are doing in turning out the vote ahead of Election Day.
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If Republicans are switching sides the exit polling would be skewed.


Granted I'm looking for bias confirming info at this point. The idea of Romney winning, for me, means another 4 years of a disappearing middle class.
 
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varwoche said:
Here's a news report about it.
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Thanks for that, but what a strange way it's written.

It doesn't say how many early votes went for Romney or Obama, but rather how many early voters were Democrats or Republicans. I suppose most independents don't vote early, but even so identifying yourself as a Democrat or a Republican doesn't mean you necessarily have to vote for your party's nominee in any particular race. And in general elections, I don't think most states require you to identify a party affiliation anyway, do they?
 
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JoeTheJuggler said:
Thanks for that, but what a strange way it's written.

It doesn't say how many early votes went for Romney or Obama, but rather how many early voters were Democrats or Republicans.
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Not allowed to actually count the ballots 'til the polls close, I believe, hence the obscure wording.
 
Foolmewunz said:
We'll know how serious it is in FL if Romney cancels his Pittsburgh/Cleveland election day rallies and heads to Tampa/Orlando instead. Personally, I think the last stops to appeal to the Reagan Democrats were a bit of whistling past the graveyard. He has a good organization in that area and can get a big turnout of enthusiastic people and that makes a great impression for those who want to be able to say they voted for the winner. But if FL starts to break early for Obama the rest of the country will not be getting out of their comfy chairs and bothering to go pull the red lever.
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This is why I favor a nationwide ban on releasing ANY figures for the Presedential race until all polls are closed. The officials can release figures for the other races,but the Presdential race should not be released until the Polls close nationwide.
 
BenBurch said:
Sleep is for wimps.
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In some ways Nate Silver will be in worse shape then Obama if Obama loses;Obama, can, the day he leaves office, begin raking in millions of dollars for speaking engagements, books and other appreances (being an ex President is pretty much a Golden Ticket nowdays) But Silver will have his creditbility shot to hell.

In fact, If Romney wins, this will be the worst fiasco for the polls and predictions companies since 1948.
 
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