Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

dudalb said:
In some ways Nate Silver will be in worse shape then Obama if Obama loses;Obama, can, the day he leaves office, begin raking in millions of dollars for speaking engagements, books and other appreances (being an ex President is pretty much a Golden Ticket nowdays) But Silver will have his creditbility shot to hell.

In fact, If Romney wins, this will be the worst fiasco for the polls and predictions companies since 1948.
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Oh, agreed. Silver has his neck on the line and knows it.
 
dudalb said:
In some ways Nate Silver will be in worse shape then Obama if Obama loses;Obama, can, the day he leaves office, begin raking in millions of dollars for speaking engagements, books and other appreances (being an ex President is pretty much a Golden Ticket nowdays) But Silver will have his creditbility shot to hell.

In fact, If Romney wins, this will be the worst fiasco for the polls and predictions companies since 1948.
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Agreed.
 
BenBurch said:
Oh, agreed. Silver has his neck on the line and knows it.
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Nate Silver is the most visible, but if Romney pulls it off this will be an almost unimaginable fiasco for virtually every polling organization out there.

Polling methodologies will have to be rethought almost completely, IMO.
 
Very, very early results from Indiana and Kentucky show Romney with 60% or more of the vote in these two states.

Highest state polls for these two had Romney no higher than 53-54%.

We knew they were red, but polls didn't show them leaning this far.

Still to early to really tell.
 
Andrew Sullivan's blog says that exit polls are showing that voter identification in Ohio is at 38% D, 31% R. Virginia is 37% to 33%. If those numbers are accurate, the theory that Rasmussen had it right and everyone else was overcounting Dems will not hold water.

Also -- turnout is apparently up from 2008 in Virginia.
 
Watching CNN and it doesn't look great for Romney in Florida.

edit: wrong thread, oops.
 
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I haven't done a full anaylsis of the errors and percentage points, but Nate appears to have called all 50 states
 
Bump.

Where are all our Rasmussen defenders? Hello?

Wasn't Romney supposed to be +1 right now?
 
While Rasmussen was proved wrong, that's not much of a surprise. What is more of a surprise to me is that Gallup also predicted a victory for Romney (at least in the popular vote) by 2% in the most recent polls. Gallup is probably the most well-known name in polling, and that lends them an air of credibility. Or at least, it used to. Will they re-evaluate their polling methods now and bring them more in line with the many, more correct polls?
 
The most accurate poll of 2012 was a surprise, and look at Rasmussen all the way down at the bottom. They didn't abandon ship fast enough. I was also slightly critical of AP/GfK for their putting forward of the idea that Romney was even with women voters, which turned out to be wrong, and they are also at the bottom.
 
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SkepticalDrew said:
The most accurate poll of 2012 was a surprise, and look at Rasmussen all the way down at the bottom. They didn't abandon ship fast enough. I was also slightly critical of AP/GfK for their putting forward of the idea that Romney was even with women voters, which turned out to be wrong, and they are also at the bottom.
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Whoa.

And did you see that Fox Freakin' News was better than both Gallup and Rasmussen?
 
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