Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

Kaosium said:
However all Romney has to do is take Wisconsin and he will barely push past the post with 271, and I suspect he'll pick up Iowa as well, to make it 277 minimum, with a possibility of picking up one of the other three Great Lakes states, to near 300, and it's not all that unlikely he'll win two of them for a more resounding victory.
Click to expand...

You up for a 30 day avatar bet on that?

Obama wins, I pick your avatar. Romney wins, you pick mine.

What say you?
 
Coulter: We don't need Ohio, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire

She just told Hannity that "we" win with FL, VA, NC, WI, IA, CO.

Oh, and as to Nate's FL trending? Is it possible he heavily weights Gravis' lean? I don't know if I'd rely on them to be biased or not - they've just been too "all over the map" with their polls.
 
Speaking of Nate, he now has Obama's chance of winning at 91.4%.
 
Foolmewunz said:
I have to say that Silver sticks by his numbers. He's got FL as a tossup but with Obama now slightly favored 52%-48% probability. I don't think anyone's giving Obama a chance in FL.

And his 314 EV is based on his algorithms on likelihood. I don't see a mathematical path to 314, and I'm sure that's not what it means anyway.
Click to expand...

Holy cow! :eek:

If Florida is really tipping like that, then it's over.

It doesn't surprise me that this is happening at 538, because ever since Sandy there's been a steady shift in FL towards Obama. But I am confused about one thing: what specifically happened in FL in the last 24 hours which switched it from 45% to 52% for Obama? All of Nate's latest polling in FL appears to give Romney a slight edge.

What am I missing? :confused:
 
MattusMaximus said:
Holy cow! :eek:

If Florida is really tipping like that, then it's over.

It doesn't surprise me that this is happening at 538, because ever since Sandy there's been a steady shift in FL towards Obama. But I am confused about one thing: what specifically happened in FL in the last 24 hours which switched it from 45% to 52% for Obama? All of Nate's latest polling in FL appears to give Romney a slight edge.

What am I missing? :confused:
Click to expand...

I think we are seeing participation not opinion changing. Either Democrats are motivated, or Republicans are dismotivated to vote. Or both.

This might be the Obama ground game at work.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Holy cow! :eek:

If Florida is really tipping like that, then it's over.

It doesn't surprise me that this is happening at 538, because ever since Sandy there's been a steady shift in FL towards Obama. But I am confused about one thing: what specifically happened in FL in the last 24 hours which switched it from 45% to 52% for Obama? All of Nate's latest polling in FL appears to give Romney a slight edge.

What am I missing? :confused:
Click to expand...

I'm wondering if his poll-counting model may have caused this. Again, he calls it a "toss-up", but I was surprised to see the shift. Then, I noted that Gravis has a poll showing it tied. I personally put Gravis as leaning to the right quite a bit. If he weights them the same, that could be why his model shows a slight up-tick for Obama. Remember that 52-48 in his prediction model is about as close as a dead heat as he gets.
 
BenBurch said:
I think we are seeing participation not opinion changing. Either Democrats are motivated, or Republicans are dismotivated to vote. Or both.

This might be the Obama ground game at work.
Click to expand...

It wouldn't surprise me if it is the Obama ground game, but how does Nate Silver know that's what it is? As I said before, I still haven't seen the justification for the sudden 7 point shift in Nate's FL numbers.
 
MattusMaximus said:
It wouldn't surprise me if it is the Obama ground game, but how does Nate Silver know that's what it is? As I said before, I still haven't seen the justification for the sudden 7 point shift in Nate's FL numbers.
Click to expand...


I would agree. It is confusing. I don't think Silver takes into account the ground games or the parties' "motivation," only the polling, so I'd like to see some explanation.
 
NotJesus said:
Jim Cramer, the host of Mad Money, has the most out there Obama win prediction I've seen.

Dude be high.
Click to expand...


That prediction is just a reflection of his mad stock-picking skills. :D

ETA: I see the only analyst in that list predicting a Romney win is the WaPo's horse-racing columnist...
 
Last edited:
AdMan said:
I would agree. It is confusing. I don't think Silver takes into account the ground games or the parties' "motivation," only the polling, so I'd like to see some explanation.
Click to expand...

Yeah. So while it tickles me to see this shift in Nate's FL numbers, I'm taking it with a grain of salt for now.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Yeah. So while it tickles me to see this shift in Nate's FL numbers, I'm taking it with a grain of salt for now.
Click to expand...

Okay, now it makes sense. Nate just updated his FL polls showing a big PPP poll with +1 for Obama, and I'm thinking that's a pretty big deal this late in the game.

Btw, Nate is working overtime - he just bumped FL up to 53% for Obama. I don't think the poor sod is going to sleep for the next 24 hours.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom