Radiation and the atomic bombing of Japan.

[Corsair 115]

Given the projected death tolls for Olympic and Coronet being discussed in advance (one quarter to one Allied casualties each) I'd say he'd have been in big trouble.

What's often overlooked is the number of Japanese casualties that would have resulted from any invasion. The citizenry was being trained as militia and would have been expected to conduct massive human wave assaults at the U.S. landing beaches armed with little more than bamboo spears. The slaughter would have been vast. And that's not counting the thousands of additional pilots who would have died trying to conduct kamikaze attacks or the tens of thousands who would have died from continuing conventional bombing of Japan and many more who would have died from starvation resulting from the near-total destruction of the Japanese economy and infrastructure.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

What's often overlooked is the number of Japanese casualties that would have resulted from any invasion. The citizenry was being trained as militia and would have been expected to conduct massive human wave assaults at the U.S. landing beaches armed with little more than bamboo spears. The slaughter would have been vast. And that's not counting the thousands of additional pilots who would have died trying to conduct kamikaze attacks or the tens of thousands who would have died from continuing conventional bombing of Japan and more who would have died from starvation.

They had >10,000 kikusui attack craft (air, surface and subsurface) reserved for the invasion, and 5,000,000 barrels of fuel saved up to get them to their targets.

 

[catsmate]

What's often overlooked is the number of Japanese casualties that would have resulted from any invasion. The citizenry was being trained as militia and would have been expected to conduct massive human wave assaults at the U.S. landing beaches armed with little more than bamboo spears. The slaughter would have been vast. And that's not counting the thousands of additional pilots who would have died trying to conduct kamikaze attacks or the tens of thousands who would have died from continuing conventional bombing of Japan and many more who would have died from starvation resulting from the near-total destruction of the Japanese economy and infrastructure.

Indeed. Few people who condemn the atomic bombings seem to have heard of Ketsu-Go.

Casualties from Downfall.
There were a number of studies of the probably casualties from the invasion. The official USG one projected that each of the landings, Coronet and Olympic, could be expected to produce between 250,000 and one million Allied casualties with 20-30% of these being fatalities.; Japanese casualties, mostly civilian, were expected to be between three and six times as great.
So perhaps six million casualties with 1.5 million dead, though Shockley's study estimated 1.7 to 4 million American casualties (with 4-800,000 dead) and five to ten million Japanese fatalities. And these numbers still don't factor in the Japanese plans to slaughter prisoners, Koreans and others.
Compared to 200,000 which is the largest remotely credible death toll for the atomic bombings.

Ketsu-Go,
The Allies didn't know about programmes like Kokumin Giyu- Sento-tai and these weren't factored into planning.
Even before August 1945, Japan was reserving fuel, aircraft (5-9,000 were stockpiled), and personnel for the defense of the home islands. The Japanese defense plan, "Ketsu-Go," called for suicide attacks on an unprecedented scale, military and civilian, and for turning Japan itself into a vast network of fortified caves, underground bunkers, and tunnels. Every road would have been booby-trapped and millions of Japanese civilians would be armed with whatever weapons can be brought to bear. This included bows launching explosive arrows and black powder firearms. Chemical and biological weapons were also stockpiled for use.
The slogan adopted for this defense plan was "One Hundred Million Will Die for the Emperor and Nation".
This was not hyperbole.

Interesting fact; the US military still hasn't exhausted the supply of Purple Heart medals (the US military aware for a combat injury) produced in anticipation of Downfall (though more were ordered in 2000).

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

"One Hundred Million Will Die for the Emperor and Nation"

That includes 70,000,000 Japanese, the rest were expected to be invaders. The militarists were willing to trade every man, woman, and child in Japan for their honor.

 

[Giordano]

I would just point out that I knew someone trained as a Kamikaze pilot during WWII who thought the use of the atomic bombs saved his life (before he was able to put into practice his training). So yes, we are comparing one horror with another and looking for the lesser of two large numbers. And there are some scenarios in which many fewer people might have died. But this is Monday morning quarterbacking at best. But clearly the moral decision was at the time, and still is, complex. I've read of surveys where people were asked about an out of control train that might kill 10 people or kill 1. Generally most people would not interfere in a pre-existing situation in which 10 people would be spared even if 1 died, but would not actively arrange to have one person killed to spare 10.

 

[Didymus]

The references above to the post-war Able and Baker tests on the effect of atom bombs on navy ships prompted me to read Wikipedia's report, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Crossroads). It is chilling to read that at 1000 yards a Nagasaki-type bomb might do relatively little damage to a battleship, other than killing all its crew with radiation. It is clear that the military had no idea how much contamination there would be from fallout after the underwater Baker shot. Scrubbing the target ships had little effect; most had to be towed away and sunk.

 

[Didymus]

What's often overlooked is the number of Japanese casualties that would have resulted from any invasion.

While I've often seen the reduction in American casualties quoted as justification for the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it is rare to see anyone mention the millions of Japanese lives saved by a speedy end to the war.
I've never seen anyone mention the effect on the morale of American soldiers of having to kill lightly-armed women and children at close quarters and to advance over their bodies. Read up on the battle for Okinawa to get an idea of what it might have been like. How long would it have been before America would have been trying to negociate a cease-fire?

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I always try to mention the "Civilian Volunteer Forces", aka "Civilian Suicide Corps."

 

[MG1962]

I always try to mention the "Civilian Volunteer Forces", aka "Civilian Suicide Corps."

It would have been horrible. And if civilians refused to fight, then they have to worry about their own soliders

 

[crescent]

While I've often seen the reduction in American casualties quoted as justification for the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it is rare to see anyone mention the millions of Japanese lives saved by a speedy end to the war.

I hear that line of reasoning most frequently from those who think that Japan would have soon surrendered, even if the nukes had not been used. The non-atomic strategic bombing, the USSR entry into the war, and the potential for civil unrest might have caused Japan to surrender even without the atomic bombs.

Might, maybe, possibly, coulda shoulda woulda, nobody really knows. Like Giordano says, it is Monday morning quarterbacking.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I hear that line of reasoning most frequently from those who think that Japan would have soon surrendered, even if the nukes had not been used. The non-atomic strategic bombing, the USSR entry into the war, and the potential for civil unrest might have caused Japan to surrender even without the atomic bombs.

Might, maybe, possibly, coulda shoulda woulda, nobody really knows. Like Giordano says, it is Monday morning quarterbacking.

I like to reply by asking which branch of the government authorized the invasion of Manchuria? The guys with the guns were running the country well before 1941. 2/26/36, a date which will live in Japanese democracy infamy.

 

[dudalb]

David Westheimer wrote a novel called "Lighter Then A Feather" which follows a number of charecters, both American and Japanese, during Operation Olympic. Good read.

http://www.amazon.com/Death-Is-Lighter-than-Feather/dp/0929398904

 

[Corsair 115]

I always try to mention the "Civilian Volunteer Forces", aka "Civilian Suicide Corps."

As I recall the Japanese government had issued an order that, in the event of an invasion, all Allied prisoners of war in Japan were to be executed.

I hear that line of reasoning most frequently from those who think that Japan would have soon surrendered, even if the nukes had not been used. The non-atomic strategic bombing, the USSR entry into the war, and the potential for civil unrest might have caused Japan to surrender even without the atomic bombs.

I don't know about "soon" but from what I understand the Navy and Army Air Force were of the opinion that the continued blockade and aerial bombing would have eventually caused Japan's capitulation without the need for an invasion.

At the time of the surrender Japan was already suffering from significant food shortages. (By the summer of 1945 the average per capita caloric intake was only 1,680; at the start of the war it had been about 2,000. That's a drop of 16%.) Workers in important industries got more meaning the general population received less. This was compounded by reduced amounts of fats, vitamins, and minerals in the diet.

Japan's economy was highly dependent on resources from outside the country and USN submarines (with the help of aerial mining and air strikes) had sent almost all of Japan's merchant fleet to the bottom of the ocean. At the time Japan surrendered the USAAF was getting ready to initiate a sustained bombing campaign against Japan's transportation network. Such a transportation campaign had proved devastating to the German economy in Europe. The destruction of Japan's railway system would have meant the cessation of the vitally important coal shipments, stopped the movement of food from agricultural areas to the cities, and made it impossible for the military to move men and supplies.

In the opinion of the USSBS:

The economic effects of the transportation attack would have had a direct impact on the Japanese people and on their determination to continue the war. In order to bring maximum pressure on the civilian population and to complicate further the Japanese economic problems, night and bad weather attacks on urban areas could have been carried out simultaneously with the transportation attack. One of the important factors inducing Japan's leaders to accept unconditional surrender was a realization that the Japanese armed forces had lost their ability to protect the people and that under the impact of direct air attack and lowered livelihood their confidence in victory and determination to continue the war were rapidly declining.

How quickly capitulation in this non-atomic bomb scenario might have happened is conjecture, but within a few months of when it happened historically is a common estimate. Olympic was set to occur 2½ months after the historical Aug. 15 surrender.

(I recall reading passages in a book—I can't recall which one—which suggested part of the reason to proceed with the atomic bomb was because the prospects for Olympic had dimmed considerably by July 1945. The Japanese had correctly guessed that Kyushu was to be the first invasion target and had reinforced it considerably. U.S. intelligence had picked up on this reinforcement, and as a result the U.S. no longer had a sufficient ratio of force allotted for the invasion to have a reasonable likelihood of succeeding.)

 

[geni]

Wow, some people actually believe that ?

What am I saying ? For every crazy theory, you'll find at least one true believer.

Eh Hiroshima was in part chosen because it would be easy to see the effects of the bomb so you can see where the idea starts from. Nothing suggests there was any interest in its long term effects mind.

 

[SUSpilot]

Tangentally related, there was an alternative history published in the early '70's based on the premise that Trinity was a fizzle and the invasion, along with the political consequences, had to proceed. Does anyone know the title?

 

[SUSpilot]

BTW, Gawdzilla, started reading Newman's book. Excellent selection.

 

[catsmate]

I hear that line of reasoning most frequently from those who think that Japan would have soon surrendered, even if the nukes had not been used. The non-atomic strategic bombing, the USSR entry into the war, and the potential for civil unrest might have caused Japan to surrender even without the atomic bombs.

Might, maybe, possibly, coulda shoulda woulda, nobody really knows. Like Giordano says, it is Monday morning quarterbacking.

Indeed. My usual response is this summary of events.
1. Intense bombing of more than sixty cities, including the firebombings. Naval blockade and bombardment.
Result: No surrender.
2. Potsdam Ultimatum.
Result: No surrender. It was rejected on 28JUL1945 by the Japanese prime minister, Kantaro Suzuki. Emperor Hirohito made no attempt to influence his government on this matter.
3. Atomic bombing of Hiroshima, followed up with the "rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth" warning.
Result: No surrender.
4. The Soviet declaration of war on Japan.
Result: Guess what? No surrender. In fact, they impose martial law to prevent anyone from entering into surrender discussions.
5. Atomic bombing of Nagasaki.
Result: No surrender.
6. Finally the emperor had to step in to force Japanese government's hand; the Japanese cabinet were evenly split on the surrender decision.
Even then there is opposition and an attempted coup. When asked if the war would be continued if the kokutai [the Emperor's sovereignty] could not be preserved, Hirohito's reply was "of course".

In late 1945 the Allies weren't in the ethical position of good choice/bad choice, it was bad choice/bloody awful choice.

As I recall the Japanese government had issued an order that, in the event of an invasion, all Allied prisoners of war in Japan were to be executed.

And about 150,000 PoWs in Malaya, the local commander had issued order that they were to be killed if Japan was invaded.

I don't know about "soon" but from what I understand the Navy and Army Air Force were of the opinion that the continued blockade and aerial bombing would have eventually caused Japan's capitulation without the need for an invasion.

The problem was how long would it take, and would there have been a weakening of the political will to demilitarise Japan, meaning another war in a few decades.

 

[catsmate]

Tangentally related, there was an alternative history published in the early '70's based on the premise that Trinity was a fizzle and the invasion, along with the political consequences, had to proceed. Does anyone know the title?

There are a few possibilities:
Ronald Clark's The Bomb that Failed (also published as The Last Day of the Old World) seems the most likely as it was published in 1969. Fuchs sabotaged the Trinity test, Downfall went badly and rice fungus was employed as a biological weapon. It also features a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, the main reason for the Trinity sabotage.

Kevin Anderson's The Trinity Paradox which features a modern day (early '90s) anti-nuclear activist who'd tossed back in time and sabotages the Trinity test. Meanwhile the Germans accelerate their nuclear programme..

Alfred Cobbel's The Burning Mountain also features a failed Trinity test and Downfall in progress.

More recently there's a graphic novel series Storming Paradise where the Trinity test goes badly, killing the observers, and the US goes ahead with Downfall.

 

[ddt]

While I've often seen the reduction in American casualties quoted as justification for the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it is rare to see anyone mention the millions of Japanese lives saved by a speedy end to the war.

And while we're at it, let's not forget about 100,000 Chinese that died due to the war each month the war continued.

To those better in the know: to what extent did these casualties (Japanese, Chinese, Allied POWs) go into the decision to use the bomb? Was it known there were Japanese standing orders to execute POWs in case of an invasion?

 

[John Nowak]

Probably the first chain reaction in the reactor under the soccer fields at University of Chicago.

That looks right, thanks!